- US Senate passes bill targeting TikTok; tensions rise
- Allegations of bias and government interference mar election fairness
- Opposition struggles against BJP dominance, faces internal and external challenges
To what extent does the electoral environment in India’s general election adhere to principles of fairness?
The opposition alliance asserts, “Rather not very.” It alleges that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government, lead by Narendra Modi, withheld an equitable playing field from it.
Opinion polls are in favour of the BJP, which is vying for a third consecutive term; the opposition, which has struggled to field national leaders who have won votes in recent years, seems to have considerable ground to regain.
The coalition, which was established in July and consisted primarily of the opposition Congress as well as minor and regional parties, adopted the nomenclature INDIA, which translates to “India National Developmental Inclusive Alliance.” The coalition of over twenty members is an improbable and cumbersome assemblage united solely for the purpose of unseating the BJP.
The opposition asserts that the government is gaining the upper hand by utilising its investigative agencies and financial influence. Mr. Modi considers such assertions to be “excuses.”
These allegations are reinforced by the recent apprehensions of prominent opposition figures, including the Chief Minister of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal, and the Former Chief Minister of Jharkhand State, Hemant Soren, on grounds of corruption that they assert are unfounded and politically driven.
A month prior to the election, one of the government’s most ardent detractors, Mr. Kejriwal, was arrested, depriving the opposition alliance of one of its most prominent and well-liked campaigners.
More than one hundred politicians have been investigated by India’s federal agencies since the BJP came to power a decade ago, with the Indian Express reporting that 95% of those investigated were from the opposition. Many later shifted their allegiance to the BJP, according to the study. It is reported that 23 of the 25 opposition leaders under investigation for corruption who complied had the cases against them dismissed or halted.
Furthermore, that is not all. Congress leaders levied allegations in February that the party’s bank accounts had been blocked and accused the government of Narendra Modi of starvation financing through the tax department in preparation for the elections. The claims were denied by the tax department.
Protesting a security violation, over 140 members of the federal opposition were momentarily suspended from parliament in December.
In the same month, opposition member of parliament and Modi critic Mahua Moitra was expelled for allegedly accepting bribes in exchange for questioning. Ms. Moitra, who has refuted the allegations, stated that her expulsion was “without evidence” and that she is currently seeking re-election in the state of West Bengal.
Rahul Gandhi, the chief of the Congress, was disqualified from the legislature for three months in a criminal defamation case last summer. In pending appeal, the courts suspended his conviction.
“The claim that India is the largest democracy in the world is a complete lie,” Mr. Gandhi told journalists at a March news conference to draw attention to the party’s suspended bank accounts. In response, the BJP asserted that the highest levels of the Congress party “ranted against Indian democracy and institutions” out of dread of “a historic defeat.”
The “crackdown” on the opposition, according to the human rights organisation Amnesty International, has reached a “crisis point” prior to the general election.
On the eve of the election, journalist and author Neerja Chowdhury questioned the impartiality of the actions taken to freeze the Congress’s bank account and appoint Mr. Kejriwal.
“That does convey the notion that your impartiality is compromised.” There is a sentiment or inquiry among individuals, including BJP supporters: Is this becoming excessive? “The way in which this manifests itself in the polls will be intriguing to observe,” she stated.
Furthermore, the Congress, which for decades ruled India, appears to be weak and deteriorating. The Congress now governs only three of the nation’s twenty-eight states, while Mr. Modi’s BJP governs twelve.
After years of consistently securing over 40% of the total ballots, Congress’ share fell below that threshold in 1989 and subsequently hovered around 20% in both 2014 and 2019. A number of prominent leaders have departed from the party in recent years.
Critics hold Mr. Gandhi, the party’s public image, accountable for his perceived lack of tenacity in comparison to Prime Minister Modi, who routinely tours the country, engaging with large audiences and launching infrastructure initiatives valued at millions of dollars. As the election approached, the most recent criticism surfaced when Mr. Gandhi initiated a months-long march.
According to analyst Prem Kumar Mani, the time had come to finalise discussions and strategies with coalition partners in Delhi, not to initiate a new endeavour.
In rejecting the criticism, Congress leaders maintained that Mr. Gandhi was invariably reachable via mobile device. “It is not that we lack seriousness in our approach; rather, it is how we present ourselves that suggests otherwise,” stated Shakeel Ahmed Khan, a senior official of the Congress.
The decline of the Congress has been ascribed by political scientist KC Suri to the organization’s transformation into a “playground for political entrepreneurs, factions, and cunning political satraps” who pursue power and wealth ceaselessly.
A lack of a charismatic national leader and an inability to provide a credible alternative and a competitive narrative have also contributed to broader criticism of the India alliance.
Due to the parties’ divergent ideologies and interests, simultaneous public appearances were postponed and the development of a unified manifesto was impeded. Ensuring cohesion has proven to be a formidable task for the alliance.
In 2022, when the coalition government of the Indian state of Maharashtra was overthrown by rebels from its coalition partner Shiv Sena, who then established a new government with the BJP, the Congress suffered setbacks. The NCP, an additional coalition partner in the state, was also beset by factions.
In recent times, two former constituents of the INDIA coalition, namely the Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Janata Dal (United), have renounced their positions and merged with the BJP’s NDA alliance.
BJP member of parliament Navneet Rana stated that in the event of a party split, questions should be directed at the leaders who failed to prevent the divide and not at those who resigned.
It has also been difficult for opposition parties to negotiate seat-sharing agreements in order to field unified candidates against the BJP on a national level.
The ruling Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, for instance, chose not to share seats, which compelled its alliance allies with India to field their own candidates. There is widespread concern that this may fragment the support of the opposition in a state of political sway, where the BJP has been exerting significant effort to gain ground.
“A persistent tension exists between the national and state outcomes in coalition-building,” said Milan Vaishnav, a political scientist.
Certain political parties in specific states, such as Bengal, exhibit a reluctance to compromise their regional reputation in pursuit of more favourable national results due to their significant apprehension regarding the relinquishment of territory.
As opposed to presenting themselves as regional advocates, non-BJP parties frequently revert to family-run enterprises characterised by “corruption and poor governance,” according to Mr. Suri.
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Some supporters and leaders of the opposition are concerned about the repercussions of defeat. They foresee an erosion of civil liberties and democracy, the undermining of government institutions, and an increase in animosity and violence directed at marginalised communities and minorities during Mr. Modi’s administration. The BJP refutes these accusations.
However, some opposing figures advise against relinquishing hope.
“If the opposition declares that there is no tomorrow, it is committing a grave strategic error,” said former election strategist Prashant Kishore.
Beyond 2024, the BJP would have us believe that tomorrow does not exist.” If I were in their position, I would advise them to “fight with all of our might, but if we ultimately fail, there is always tomorrow after the 2024 elections.
