Diplomatic Triumph
Hamas-Israel Conflict
International Concerns
In the end, the prolonged duration of the truce constituted a diplomatic triumph. After a seven-day hiatus, Israel and Hamas presently face their most formidable military and political obstacles.
Hamas struggles for survival. It will maintain its claim to victory as long as a gunman is capable of detonating a projectile or pulling the trigger; it will not concede to defeat.
Despite its formidable military might, Israel faces a more intricate challenge.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, vowed “mighty vengeance” on October 7 when Hamas breached the frontier and killed approximately 1,200 people, the majority of whom were Israeli civilians.
The Israeli government reaffirmed its war objectives in the initial hours following the military’s resumption of offensive operations. This was done through a WhatsApp post that stated, “Release the hostages, eliminate Hamas, and ensure that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israeli citizens.”
Blinken’s Diplomatic Efforts and Expectations
How this occurs, and the subsequent developments are presently the foremost concerns of Mr Netanyahu, his political allies and adversaries in Israel, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who has visited Israel and the region four times since the outbreak of hostilities.
Perhaps Mr Blinken knew that his endeavour to extend the “humanitarian pause” would be unsuccessful.
The evening before the resumption of hostilities, he reaffirmed the United States endorsement of Israel’s right to self-defence and condemned Hamas once more.
Mr. Blinken reaffirmed his conviction that Israel must conduct itself in opposition to a terrorist organization that disregards both international humanitarian law and the laws of war in strict adherence to these principles.
Biden’s Caution and Israel’s Dilemma
Mr. Blinken then delivered his most resolute public declaration to date regarding Israel’s approach to the conflict.
It is lengthy and worthy of quotation because it details the United States’ expectations of its closest ally.
Mr. Blinken stated that this necessitated the implementation of more productive measures to safeguard the lives of civilians, such as delineating precise and unambiguous regions and locations in central and southern Gaza where they could remain secure and shielded from enemy fire.
“By doing so, we can prevent the substantial displacement of civilians within Gaza.” It entails the prevention of harm to vital infrastructure that supports life, such as water facilities, electricity plants, and hospitals.
“Additionally, it entails granting displaced civilians in southern Gaza the opportunity to repatriate to the northern region as soon as circumstances allow.” No lasting internal displacement must occur.
The President of the United States, Joe Biden, arrived at the onset of the conflict. As the United States had done in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001, al-Qaeda attacks, he cautioned his allies not to become blinded by fury in their pursuit of justice, even as he attempted to envelop Israel in a warm and powerful embrace.
Joe Biden appears to believe that Mr. Netanyahu, with whom he has had a tumultuous history, did not pay attention, based on Mr. Blinken’s statements.
Targeting Hamas in Southern Gaza
To Israel’s military objectives, the forthcoming offensive phase must target Hamas in southern Gaza. It ordered Palestinian civilians to retreat to the south for their protection after it invaded northern Gaza.
Although Gaza is less complicated than the northern region, which Israel has largely degraded, it is still not secure to venture inside.
A few hours after hostilities resumed, Israeli airstrikes were killing Palestinians in Rafah, which is located in the extreme south of Gaza on the Egyptian border.
Israel cannot claim to have eradicated Hamas without destroying its infrastructure in the south, where it believes Yahya Sinwar and the other leaders, along with an undetermined number of fighting men, are hiding in caverns beneath the civilian population.
The application of the same strategies by Israel that it employed in northern Gaza will result in the loss of thousands of civilian lives. The United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, has already referred to the situation in Gaza as “an epic humanitarian catastrophe.”
There is concern among Egypt and other nations that the imposition of intense military pressure on an estimated two million civilians in the southern region may result in tens of thousands of impoverished individuals attempting to cross the border into the Sinai Desert. The emergence of a fresh Palestinian refugee crisis would once again render the Middle East difficult and needy.
Assume Israel has assured the United States that directives will be issued to relocate Palestinian civilians to designated areas where they will be protected. Given the type of high-intensity conflict Israel has been engaged in—one that employs heavy artillery, airstrikes, and tanks—it is considerably simpler to envision how this strategy could fail than how it could succeed.
Biden’s Dilemma and Blinken’s Stance
Israel will almost certainly incur many more battle casualties if it adopts lighter counterinsurgency strategies and deploys soldiers without a substantial shield of protection.
In the coming days, the progressive element of Joe Biden’s Democratic party, vehemently criticizing his support for Israel, must also consider Israel’s fate.
Antony Blinken, Biden’s senior diplomat, has publicly and unequivocally expressed the United States’ stance on how Israel should engage Hamas. Suppose Israel, contrary to Joe Biden’s stated intention, slaughters an equivalent number of Palestinian civilians as it did in the north. In that case, the President of the United States will be faced with the difficult decision of whether or not to maintain the level of support he has extended to Israel, not only militarily but also within the United Nations Security Council, where it has repeatedly exercised its veto to safeguard Israel.
Hamas remains unbeaten. It can further psychological pressure on the home front and undermine Israel’s military campaign by utilizing the leverage provided by its remaining hostages. Yahya Sinwar, the commander of Hamas, and his men will also attempt to seize opportunities that present themselves should Israel’s generals comply with American directives to reduce their firepower.
This conflict has entered a new phase. The region as a whole is the same. Numerous Israelis and Palestinians, including those residing at a distance from the competition in Gaza, appear to be crushed by the weight of an uncertain and dangerous future.
Sir Patrick Vallance’s COVID journal quotes Dominic Cummings
