- Putin’s revised nuclear doctrine signals a lower threshold for use
- Experts debate whether this is a bluff or serious threat
- Russia’s warnings target Western support for Ukraine’s military efforts
Vladimir Putin’s latest expansion of scenarios for using nuclear weapons aims to strike fear in the West, with experts warning this could lead to a “very unpleasant surprise.” On Wednesday, Putin broadened the conditions under which Russia might use nuclear weapons, particularly if Western leaders allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike targets deep inside Russian territory.
Nikolai Sokov, a former Soviet and Russian diplomat, emphasized that this move was intended to send a “very clear message”: any escalation that crosses these boundaries could mean nuclear war. Sokov expressed concern over the dismissive attitude some have taken, noting that the situation is unfamiliar and ignoring the risks could lead to devastating consequences.
However, not all experts agree on the seriousness of the threats. Andreas Umland, an analyst at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, downplayed the new ‘red line’ as a mere psychological PR operation by the Kremlin aimed at intimidating Western voters and leaders. Ukrainian officials have also brushed off Putin’s comments as “nuclear blackmail” without any real intent behind them, with Anton Gerashchenko, a former Ukrainian official, calling it a bluff designed to show Putin’s weakness.
Defense expert Fabian Hoffmann noted that while Putin’s remarks should not be ignored, there is no imminent risk of nuclear use. He highlighted that actual preparations for nuclear strikes—such as removing warheads from storage or pairing them with delivery systems—would be detectable by intelligence agencies. Mark Galeotti, a Russian security expert, echoed this view, stating that talk is easy but real signs of readiness to use nuclear weapons remain absent.
Despite these varied opinions, Putin was more specific than ever before regarding the circumstances that could trigger nuclear use. His spokesman warned that any Western participation in attacks on Russia would lead to serious consequences. In practice, the new policy expands Russia’s nuclear umbrella to cover its close ally, Belarus, and lowers the threshold for nuclear strikes in response to conventional attacks, framing them as potential threats to Russia’s sovereignty.
Some hawkish voices in Russia have been advocating for even more aggressive nuclear posturing. Sergei Karaganov, a prominent proponent of limited nuclear strikes, has pushed for Russia to launch such a strike in Europe to force adversaries to take its nuclear deterrence seriously. Though Putin’s announcement fell short of Karaganov’s demands, it marked a significant shift.
The revised doctrine now allows for nuclear use in response to a major cross-border attack involving conventional forces like aircraft, missiles, or drones. It also warns that if a rival nuclear power supports an attack on Russia, it could be considered a party to the conflict. These criteria directly apply to situations where Western countries enable Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia, something Putin has repeatedly warned against.
Bahram Ghiassee, a nuclear analyst at the Henry Jackson Society think-tank, linked Putin’s timing to Ukraine’s ongoing lobbying for long-range missiles from the West. He views the announcement as Putin’s way of telling the West to back down. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken criticized Putin’s nuclear threats as irresponsible and noted that this was not the first time Putin had resorted to such tactics.
Putin’s message was delivered in a four-minute video, where he addressed Russia’s security council on the topic of nuclear deterrence. While members listened intently, Putin’s real audience was clearly in Kyiv, Washington, and London. Russian political consultant Yevgeny Minchenko summarized the message as a blunt warning to the West: “If you try to kill us through Ukraine, we will kill both your proxy and you.
Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, stated that the revised doctrine makes it easier for Russia to justify using tactical nuclear weapons, particularly against Ukraine. He warned that the West’s belief that Russia would never use nuclear weapons first is misguided, as the new doctrine signals a readiness to do so if pushed. This could include attacks on military bases in Romania or Poland if they were used to launch strikes on Russia with Western support.
Military analyst Igor Korotchenko, often featured on Russian state TV, argued that the West has consistently ignored previous warning signals, including Russian military exercises simulating the use of tactical nuclear weapons. According to him, the doctrine changes were necessary because the West no longer respects Russia’s ‘red lines.’
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Vladimir Avatkov, a member of an official Russian advisory body, said the new doctrine is an attempt to instill fear in the West, forcing leaders to reconsider their support for Ukraine. Nationalists and war bloggers in Russia welcomed the changes, with many advocating for the use of nuclear weapons to force a Ukrainian surrender.
Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and current deputy chairman of the Security Council, warned that Putin’s announcement should give Ukraine and the West pause. He suggested that the very act of changing Russia’s nuclear doctrine could make adversaries reconsider their actions, particularly those who still value self-preservation.
Sokov expressed concern that the West has grown complacent, crossing multiple Russian red lines by supplying tanks and fighter jets to Ukraine without facing serious consequences. He stressed that while NATO troops have not yet entered the war and Ukraine has not fired Western missiles into Russia, both of these would clearly cross Russia’s red lines, leaving the West to speculate on how Putin might react.
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