- Trump’s VP pick rekindles Europe fears
- Vance opposes aid, favors negotiations
- Europe must adjust to US pivot
Donald Trump’s selection of JD Vance as his vice-presidential nominee has rekindled fears in Europe that he will follow a transactional “America first” foreign policy, which might result in the US pressuring Ukraine to bow to Vladimir Putin and sue for peace with Russia.
It’s bad for us, but it’s terrible news for [Ukraine],” stated a senior European official in Washington. “[Vance] is not our ally.”
Foreign diplomats and observers have frequently referred to Trump’s policies as a “black box,” claiming that it is hard to foresee what the unpredictable leader will do once in power.
Some have consoled themselves by claiming that names mentioned for prominent positions, such as former national security adviser Robert O’Brien, will maintain the status quo on foreign policy while Trump focuses on domestic issues.
However, a potential Trump administration now has a much more active surrogate who will fuel Trump’s scepticism toward Ukraine and Europe while advocating for the party’s aggressive trade and foreign policies elsewhere in the world.
Senator Vance was a key opponent of Ukraine’s new aid package last spring and has indicated disinterest in the outcome of the conflict, according to Michael McFaul, director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and a former ambassador to Russia. Trump’s choice of Vance as his running mate gave American voters an obvious foreign policy choice in November.
“President Biden’s foreign policy strategy radically contrasts with Mr Trump’s approach,” he told reporters. “Biden and Harris have pushed democracy and challenged autocrats. Trump and Vance have ignored efforts to advance democracy abroad in favor of embracing autocrats. The contrast in international approaches taken by these two presidential contenders has never been more evident in my experience.”
Vance has publicly attacked US aid packages to Ukraine and pressed for discussions with Russia despite Ukraine’s refusal to engage. He has accused the Biden administration of “micromanaging” Israel’s battle in Gaza, claiming that America should “enable Israel to actually finish the job.
He has called for China’s containment, claiming that America was “spread too thin” in Europe and promoting harsh trade restrictions and intellectual property protections against China.
He has also urged that European countries pay a bigger part of their GDP to NATO, saying this year: For far too long, the US has supplied Europe with a blanket of security.
I think Vance was chosen at least in part for his foreign and trade policy,” said Emma Ashford, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center Washington’s Reimagining US Grand Strategy program.
“Vance represents the expanding right wing of the Republican Party. They are more nationalist, protectionism-oriented, and anti-immigrant. Trump was primarily responsible for initiating this in 2016, and Vance has emerged as one of its congressional leaders.
Top funders reportedly rushed to ensure Vance’s nomination in the last hours. According to Axios, they include Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson, and David Sacks. All three have questioned Joe Biden’s backing for Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and Sacks stated on stage at the Republican National Convention that Biden “provoked, yes provoked, the Russians to invade Ukraine with talk of Nato expansion.
They are also related to a broader group of Silicon Valley tech millionaires, notably Vance supporter Peter Thiel, who has been highly harsh on China.
Meanwhile, the decision has outraged some conventional Republicans.
“He [Vance] would capitulate to Russia and sacrifice the freedom of our allies in Ukraine,” tweeted Liz Cheney, a former congressman and vociferous Trump critic. “The Trump GOP is no longer the party of Lincoln, Reagan or the constitution.”
Vance, the author of Hillbilly Elegy, has positioned himself as a modern success story from the American rust belt, and Trump is thought to have picked him for his biography and stage presence rather than his policies. He has, nonetheless, established himself as a strong critic of Ukrainian aid.
I think it’s ridiculous that we’re focused on this border in Ukraine,” Vance said in a 2022 interview with Steve Bannon’s War Room podcast. “Honestly, I don’t care what happens to Ukraine.
At the Munich security conference in February, he delivered what his staffers described as a “wake-up call” to Europe, downplaying the threat presented by Russia’s leader and claiming that the US could not make the weaponry required to enable Ukraine to continue the conflict.
I do not believe Vladimir Putin poses an existential threat to Europe, and if he does, it signals that Europe ought to take a more aggressive role in its security, Vance said.
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Vance also stated that he believes the Ukraine conflict “will end in a negotiated peace,” a view that appeared to be supported on Tuesday by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has been travelling on a rogue “peace mission” to Moscow and Mar-a-Lago, wrote that Trump would begin acting as a “peace broker immediately” after the elections, even before his inauguration.
Yes, Trump will ultimately set Ukrainian policy,” commented Serhiy Kudelia, a political science professor at Baylor University, on X. But Vance’s pick tells us everything we need to know about Trump’s attitude to Ukraine once he becomes president: no NATO membership for Ukraine, less military and economic support, and forcing Zelenskiy to negotiate with Putin.
In that address, Vance also stated that he does not believe the US should withdraw from NATO or “abandon Europe,” but rather that Washington should “pivot” toward Asia, which means pursuing a more robust posture to restrain China.
He believes that the United States should emphasise East Asia more strongly. That will be the destiny of American foreign policy for the next 40 years, and Europe must wake up to the reality.
