The United States House of Representatives is no closer to picking a Speaker after two days of voting.
The distance to the chamber may be greater. Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader for the past four years, has 20 Republicans standing between him and the gavel, and they refuse to move.
Matt Gaetz, one of the so-called “Never Kevins,” referred to Mr. McCarthy as “desperate” and stated that his desire was straightforward: “For him to withdraw from the race.”
Mr. McCarthy attempted to postpone the House until Thursday, ensuring a third day of the vote.
“I don’t believe tonight’s vote will make a difference,” he stated, asserting that progress had been made. “However, a future vote will.”
In light of this, here are three possible outcomes for a future vote.
Kevin McCarthy is victorious
Current Kevin McCarthy policy appears to be to wage a battle of attrition. His supporters will continue to submit his name for candidature until his opponents are weary of voting against him. Doing the same thing and expecting different results may be the definition of insanity. But it may be their only option until they determine what the obstinate Republicans truly desire.
If Mr. McCarthy can strike a deal, he will very definitely have to concede more power. And influence to his adversaries, so allowing them to declare triumph.
CNN says that he has one more concession up his sleeve. But any additional concessions will ultimately erode his hold on power. It will also increase the likelihood that he will be ousted later in the year when the most difficult battles involving the budget. And the debt ceiling occur.
Mr. McCarthy might also hoped that Democrats will tire of the fight. And cease showing up to the votes for speaker, therefore reducing the margin he needs to secure a majority. To date, however, Democrats appear to be enjoying the Republican anarchy.
Already, some Republicans, such as Ken Buck of Colorado, are suggesting that Mr. McCarthy should step out in favor of an alternate candidate. Such as his deputy, Steve Scalise of Louisiana.
Kevin McCarthy renounces
After two days of failure, it must be regarded plausible, perhaps likely, that Mr. McCarthy will surrender. At some time, the rank-and-file Republicans who currently support Mr. McCarthy may conclude that the best course of action is to sacrifice the extremist Republicans and attempt to move on. And even a small number of them breaking ranks might unlock the floodgates.
Mr. Buck, who has voted for Mr. McCarthy six times, stated on Wednesday afternoon. “We’re beginning to see some open dispute on the floor as well as behind closed doors.” “We must select a speaker and then proceed.”
Mr. Scalise, the Republicans’ main vote counter, may be the candidate most likely to be accepted by both conservative hardliners. And the rest of the House Republicans. Considered a fervent southern conservative. He was critically injured in the 2017 attack on Republican members of Congress during a baseball practice. Physically shedding blood for the party. Currently, the greatest difficulty is that he does not appear to want the job.
Other potential candidates include the fiery Ohio congressman Jim Jordan and the Indiana Republican Study Committee chairman Jim Banks. Neither candidate appears capable of uniting the entire party, though. (The anti-McCarthy Republicans nominated Byron Donalds of Florida three times on Wednesday. Although he has been more of a conduit for anti-McCarthy feelings than a real candidate.)
The parties reach an agreement on a compromise candidate
On Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans in the Ohio House of Representatives joined forces to reject a more conservative candidate for speaker and support a moderate compromise candidate. Could this also occur in the United States House of Representatives?
As Mr. McCarthy’s situation has become clearer in recent days, such speculation has been abundant. Some of this is fabricated by his supporters as a warning to conservative extremists to get in line. but some of it is genuine.
If Mr. McCarthy fails, Don Bacon, a moderate Republican from Nebraska, has previously indicated his willingness to collaborate with Democrats to elect a compromised speaker.
Fred Upton, a former Michigan Republican congressman with moderate credentials, has shown his willingness to present himself as a coalition candidate. (There is no requirement that a speaker has to be a current member of Congress). And there has been some discussion of enticements for Democrats. Such as rule changes allowing them to offer legislation or increased committee authority.
All of this would require a substantial number of Democrats to support the idea. Which in the current polarised political climate appears extremely unlikely. And any Republican who collaborates with Democrats will be immediately ostracised by the vast majority of conservatives.
Because the House is already operating in an unknown area by contemporary norms, no course of action is currently implausible.
