- Dockworkers’ strike may impact US economy before election
- Harris risks being tied to Biden’s inflation challenges
- Strike could disrupt supply chains, raising voter concerns
Politicians in the United States have long discussed the “October surprise,” which could upend the presidential election in its final stretch.
With 45,000 dock workers on strike in dozens of ports across the United States, such a moment may have arrived.
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) union’s decision to walk off the job on Tuesday risks economic instability only weeks before the November 5 election.
Operations have come to a halt at 36 ports on the East and Gulf coastlines, spanning from Texas to Maine. These ports handle more than half of all seaborne imports.
While shoppers are unlikely to notice any immediate changes at the checkout, a prolonged strike might disrupt supply systems, resulting in shortages and higher pricing for consumers.
Seafood and bananas are among the most vulnerable goods, followed by apparel, electronics, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals.
JPMorgan projected before the strike that a shutdown of the East and Gulf Coast ports would cost the economy $5 billion per day.
ILA President Harold Daggett has warned that the strike might “cripple” the economy if the union’s demands for a 77% wage increase over six years and a halt to port automation projects are not met.
“Cars won’t come in, food won’t come in, clothing won’t come in,” Daggett stated during a Fox News interview. Do you know how many people rely on our jobs?” “Half the world.
President Joe Biden, who has positioned himself as the most pro-union leader in US history, has expressed sympathy for the workers’ demands while rejecting calls to deploy powers granted by the 1947 Taft-Hartley Act to order them back to work.
All of this points to a potential danger for Democratic Party contender Vice President Kamala Harris, who is now gaining voter trust on economic matters.
Recent polls show that Harris, who is narrowly ahead in most polls, is closing the gap on former President Donald Trump in terms of who is best qualified to handle the economy. The economy has long been regarded as one of the Democrats’ most vulnerable areas.
One plausible reason for this is that US consumers, who blamed much of the price increase on Biden, are beginning to feel less of a pinch on their wallets.
After peaking at 9.1 per cent in mid-2022, inflation plummeted to 2.2 per cent in August, the lowest level in more than three and a half years.
Last month, the US Federal Reserve issued its first interest rate drop in four years, sending a strong signal that concerns about rising prices have been alleviated.
A price increase just as voters head to the elections would undermine impressions that the economy has turned a corner under the Democrats’ leadership.
Much of Harris’ risk would depend on whether voters see her as a member of the incumbent administration or the candidate for change she has sought to present to the public.
Harris is an odd nominee, given her late entry into the campaign following Biden’s departure in July. Still, there is some evidence that people regard her as a continuation of the existing government.
In a New York Times/Siena poll released earlier this month, 55 per cent of respondents thought Harris represented “more of the same,” while 34 per cent said the same about Trump.
Trump lost little time attempting to link the walkout to Harris, blaming the work stoppage on “massive inflation created by the Harris-Biden regime”.
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“Everybody understands the dockworkers because they were decimated by this inflation, just like everyone else in our country and beyond,” Trump said to Fox News Digital shortly after the strike began.
Any attempt by Harris to distinguish herself from Biden on the strike would be fraught with consequences, not the least of which would be upsetting union members who have usually supported Democratic.
Harris may be wary of taking these voters for granted after the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, one of the country’s largest unions, broke with tradition by declining to endorse a candidate for the first time in nearly three decades.
While it is impossible to predict how the strike will affect the election outcome, the Harris campaign will be unhappy to have to deal with such a surprise with only five weeks left.
