Politicians in Northern Ireland have until midnight tonight to restore the power-sharing executive or face the prospect of new elections.
The executive consists of ministers from the largest parties and is aimed to ensure that unionists and nationalists work together to rule.
In protest against the NI Protocol, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has halted its creation.
The Northern Ireland secretary has stated that he will call elections if it is not restored.
Sinn Féin and the Alliance Party have approved a resolution to reassemble assembly members at midday for a special session, and they have called on the DUP to support the election of an assembly speaker and cease obstructing the creation of an administration.
There is little indication that the political impasse will be resolved by Friday at 00:01 BST, 24 weeks after the election in May.
If the deadline is missed, Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris is required by law to convene assembly elections within twelve weeks.
The caretaker ministers at Stormont will be removed from office and replaced by senior civil officers.
Since the election, the assembly has only met for exceptional recalls. It would also be abolished.
If called, a pre-Christmas election will partially fill the hole, but there is a chance it will make matters worse rather than better.
During an election campaign, positions may harden, and if there is a very low voter turnout, the legitimacy of the outcome may be questioned.
Mr. Heaton-Harris, who has been in charge since 6 September, has repeatedly stated in recent weeks that he will call the election, as opposed to attempting to postpone it or prevent it through new legislation in Westminster.
The most probable date for a vote is December 15.
This issue could be resolved fast, potentially as soon as Friday.
What is the consequence of missing the election deadline?
According to the laws, the Northern Ireland secretary must call an election “as quickly as possible.”
Contrary to what he has consistently stated, this does not entail he must call an election on October 28.
According to the laws, the election must be held within 12 weeks, which would result in a second assembly election within a year.
However, earlier deadlines in Northern Ireland have been modified as a result of emergency legislation passed in Westminster.
Since the DUP withdrew from the government in February, ministers have remained in place with only limited authority.
As part of its anti-protocol protests, the DUP, the largest unionist party at Stormont, has also obstructed the election of an assembly Speaker.
The protocol is the trading agreement negotiated during the Brexit negotiations, which requires checks on British products entering Northern Ireland.
Former DUP leader and First Minister Peter Robinson encouraged his party not to return to the executive on Thursday.
On his Facebook page, he added, “To my colleagues in the DUP: continue to maintain your head when everyone around you is losing theirs.”
You have not traveled this far for no reason.
The later recall of the assembly is likely to provide the parties with a chance to outline their competing perspectives about the current impasse.
In theory, they are scheduled to debate a motion on the cost-of-living problem, but procedural rules will likely prevent this from occurring.
Speaker Alex Maskey wrote to assembly members: “If the assembly is unable to elect a Speaker and deputy Speakers, it cannot conduct any other business, including the nomination of ministers and the debate on the resolution.
A study done by Queens University and LucidTalk indicates that the majority of Northern Irish citizens favor the formation of an executive.
A little less than two-thirds (65%) believed that the Northern Ireland Executive should be fully functional regardless of what happens with the Protocol, while nearly a third (32%) disagreed.
Queens and LucidTalk have conducted a series of regular polls to gauge public opinion on protocol-related topics.
The most recent poll was based on 1,499 responses from a survey conducted between 7-10 October 2022. The error margin is +/-2.3%.
The DUP, along with the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), asserts that the protocol undermines Northern Ireland’s position within the United Kingdom and runs counter to the spirit of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, the peace accord that established power-sharing in Northern Ireland.
It maintains Northern Ireland’s alignment with certain EU trade laws to enable the free flow of products over the Irish land border, from the United Kingdom into an EU member state, the Republic of Ireland.
It established a new trade border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, which the EU acknowledges is problematic for many firms.
The DUP won 25 seats in the May assembly election, making it the second-largest party in the assembly.
The UUP won nine seats, while the TUV secured one.
Sinn Féin, the largest party in the assembly with 27 seats, argues that the protocol is required as a result of Brexit and, while acknowledging that there are practical challenges associated with its implementation, argues that they must be resolved through negotiations between the UK and EU.
Alliance, which became the third-largest party with 17 seats, recognizes the need for flexibility with the protocol, but blames Brexit rather than the EU for Northern Ireland’s most recent troubles, arguing that legally binding, durable solutions are required.
The Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), which with eight seats is the second-largest nationalist party after Sinn Féin, acknowledges that “a small number of issues with the protocol remain unresolved” but asserts that these issues must be resolved through negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union.
Michelle O’Neill, vice president of Sinn Féin, has called for a “united approach” between London and Dublin if the executive does not return.
