NHS England projected services to return to pre-pandemic levels by early 2022/23 and intended to offer 30% more treatments by 2024/25, but this would be a “historic feat” requiring “an unprecedented rate of growth,” according to a report.
Plans to reduce NHS treatment and cancer care waiting times by 2025 are in grave peril, according to a critical assessment.
According to a report by the National Audit Office (NAO), inflationary pressures, “severe” workforce shortages and efficiency issues, and a dependence on GPs to absorb hospital work have harmed key NHS targets.
According to the NAO – the UK’s independent spending watchdog – NHS England’s post-COVID-19 recovery strategy to reduce the backlog for patients, especially those battling cancer, is now “seriously in danger.”
Inflation-adjusted funding allocated by the government to help the health service recover is insufficient, according to the research.
The NHS England plan anticipated that services would return to pre-pandemic levels of activity by the beginning of 2022/23 and that around 30% more treatments would be available by 2024/25.
Increasing activity to these levels, however, would be a “historic feat” requiring “a growth rate not seen in previous years.”
Currently, the NHS is operating at 96% of pre-pandemic levels.
By March of next year, health officials believed the number of patients waiting more than two months for urgent cancer treatment referrals would revert to pre-epidemic levels.
They established a deadline of March 2025 to eliminate wait times of over a year for elective care.
The NAO investigation revealed that even if progress is achieved, people may still suffer long wait times.
According to the report, to reach its goals, NHS England wants GPs to assume responsibility for numerous situations previously handled by hospital physicians.
Instead of directing some patients to specialists, they are managed by primary care physicians who are guided by hospital physicians.
NHS England estimates that this will prevent 1,7 million outpatient appointments in 2022/23, 1.1 million more than in 2019/2020.
Even with this in mind, the NHS must achieve a 7% average yearly growth in activity, according to the NAO.
In the meantime, new community diagnostic centers have conducted 1.8 million tests between July 2021 and September of this year, according to the NAO. However, an additional 1.9 million tests would be required to meet the diagnostic objective set for March 2023.
Attempts to reduce hospital follow-up appointments alarmed some clinicians and administrators, who feared for patient safety.
By March 2023, NHS England aims to reduce outpatient follow-up appointments by at least 25 percent.
However, just five of the forty-two regional health organizations believe this is possible.
The decline in productivity is a “major problem.”
The National Audit Office (NAO) characterized the 16% decline in NHS productivity in 2021 as a “serious issue.”
Due to increased sickness, decreased desire to work paid or unpaid overtime, and the redistribution of personnel between teams, the average number of procedures performed by staff has decreased.
COVID-19 infection control measures affecting operating theatre capacity and cancellations, as well as a “lower managerial focus by NHS trusts and NHS England on cost reduction and operational rigor,” impacted productivity.
Gareth Davies, the head of the National Audit Office, stated, “There are major risks to the implementation of the goal to cut waiting times for elective and cancer care services by 2025.”
He said that the NHS must be “agile” in its response to the outcomes of various recovery program programs.
A spokesman for the health services asserted that the NHS was “on pace” to meet its next recovery benchmarks after “almost eliminating two-year waits for care and decreasing 18-month waits by nearly 60% in a year.”
“Staff has accomplished this despite higher staff absences, more COVID-19 patients in hospital this summer than in the previous two summers combined, reduced hospital capacity due to social care issues discharging patients back into the community, and increased demand on urgent and emergency care services,” she explained.
The Royal College of Nursing launched its first strike in its 106-year existence last week.
In response, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stated that the requested wage increase was “unaffordable.”
