Covid is on the rise again in the United Kingdom; should we be concerned?

You could be excused for heaving a sigh of exhaustion. From Ukraine to the rising cost of everything, so much is happening, and now Covid is rearing its ugly head once more.

Since the beginning of June, the number of infected people in the United Kingdom has more than doubled, with approximately 2.3 million people testing positive. You likely know someone who has had the disease.

Therefore, is summer ruined? After two and a half years of the pandemic, we are once again confronted with new variants, an increase in infections, questions regarding whether the NHS can cope, and the implications for all of our lives. It also gives us a clearer picture of what life with Covid will be like.

Linda Bauld, a professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh, states, “We’re in a rough patch at the moment.

It’s extremely disruptive to society, and some people are experiencing severe consequences, but that’s still a tiny fraction of where we were before.

BA.4 and BA.5 are the driving force behind the sudden increase in infectious diseases. Technically, these two mutated forms of the virus are subtypes of Omicron. The original Omicron had a remarkable capacity to spread and overcome the immune defenses that our bodies have developed to prevent infection. BA.4 and BA.5 are even better. Their rise began before major summer events such as the Jubilee or Glastonbury, so it’s not as if we just partied our way into a new wave.

Prof. Danny Altmann, an immunologist at Imperial College London, states that it is “shocking” how much the virus can adapt to continue infecting humans. He recalls viewing the first scientific analysis of Omicron last winter: “I felt like I’d just seen the worst horror film on the planet, and yet it continues to produce even worse ones.”

As a result, we are currently experiencing a second, and possibly third, Omicron wave of the year, and it’s only July.

Slippery virus
According to research published in the New England Journal of Medicine, BA.4 and BA.5 can “substantially escape” vaccination or infection-based immunity. A study published in Science demonstrated that the original Omicron was similar to a “stealth virus” that provided limited protection if you encountered Omicron again.

As a result of the new sub-variants evasive abilities and our diminishing immunity, tales of multiple Covid infections are becoming increasingly common. In addition, one-fifth of us have evaded the Covid virus throughout the pandemic, which is a surprising statistic.

Prof. Mark Woolhouse, who studies disease outbreaks at the University of Edinburgh, says, “[This virus] continues to surprise us in unwelcome ways; one would have hoped there would be more protection from one Omicron variant to the next.”

Nonetheless, the most important form of protection – against becoming gravely ill, ending up in the hospital, and passing away – remains intact. If there were 2.3 million cases before vaccines, the National Health Service would be overwhelmed and tens of thousands of people would perish. This is not happening.

However, despite this protection, BA.4 and BA.5 have the potential to leave you feeling extremely ill.

Prof. Susan Hopkins, from the United Kingdom’s Health Security Agency, states that people are “ill for between seven and ten days.”

This has repercussions if you need to work or were planning a vacation. Staff sickness in the NHS is another way the virus can put pressure on the health care system.

“What would you do if your school or airline had no teachers or pilots? How do you swallow that? “Prof. Altmann asks.

Increasing cases will also have a disproportionate impact on clinically vulnerable individuals and leave cases of long Covid in their wake.

Severity question
There are no indications that this virus is more or less dangerous than the original Omicron, but we cannot be certain.

Currently, only laboratory and animal research exists. According to a study conducted in Japan, BA.4 and BA.5 grow more readily in lung cells. Disease in hamsters was worse than with earlier forms of Covid.

Since April, the UKHSA has reported a “small” increase in the proportion of infected individuals requiring hospital treatment. However, the cause is unknown and may be due to waning vaccine protection or a shift in who is contracting the virus.

Prof. Woolhouse, who was one of the scientists who demonstrated that the original Omicron was milder, states that “we haven’t seen definitive data” on BA.4 or BA.5 because we are no longer collecting the same volume of data.

However, variants need only infect a sufficient number of individuals to affect the NHS. The small proportion of individuals who do get into trouble still constitutes a large number.

The number of people hospitalized with Covid in the United Kingdom has increased by approximately 2,500 in the past week, reaching 10,081. More than half of these patients will be admitted for other reasons, such as a broken bone or a stroke, but they must still be managed.

Prof. Hopkins, the chief medical advisor for the UK Health Security Agency, says, “I remain concerned, as a further doubling [in numbers] poses a significant challenge for the NHS.”

The expectation is that the United Kingdom will follow a similar path to South Africa and Portugal.

Prof. Bauld: “I believe we should be optimistic; in the countries that are ahead of us, things are settling down, and these diseases tend to self-extinguish as they run out of susceptible hosts.”

However, it appears that the notion that Covid will merely become a winter pest is either false or far-fetched.

Prof. Woolhouse cautions, “Every year we say this, and then in the summer it causes a tidal wave, driven by the emergence of new variants more frequently than once a year.”

In terms of severity, the virus may resemble influenza, but the difference is that influenza only occurs once a year.

There is no political inclination to reinstate restrictions. Before next winter, the most important decision will concern the vaccination program: who will be vaccinated, and more importantly, with what?

Both Pfizer and Moderna have announced updated Omicron-targeting vaccines, but the original strain is already obsolete.