Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, has prompted a fundamental reevaluation of how NATO deters Vladimir Putin from attacking any of its 30 member states.
According to interviews and briefings with a half-dozen military officers and diplomats, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, has prompted a fundamental rethinking of how the alliance deters Vladimir Putin from attacking any of its 30 member states.
Before the 24th of February, when Moscow launched its full-scale attack on Kyiv, long-standing defense measures had not gained much traction. However, as leaders gather in Spain for a historic summit from June 28-30, these plans are beginning to take shape.
Overnight, the mentality shifted, according to a NATO military official. “NATO currently feels electrified. You can feel the energy coursing through your body.”
A diplomat anticipated that the Madrid summit will result in, or at least establish the groundwork for, “a drastic change in stance.”
Concerns from Turkey have prevented previously neutral Sweden and Finland from joining the alliance, which would have been the ultimate blow to Vladimir Putin and a victory for the allies. Stockholm is accused by Ankara of harboring Kurdish extremists. The United Kingdom is one of the allies attempting to mend the rift before Madrid.
Among the measures expected to receive approval are:
• According to two military sources, an expansion and rebranding of the 40,000-strong NATO Response Force, maybe by as much as sixfold. However, according to a NATO source, alternative formulas are being examined and the final increase is likely to be smaller.
• An increase in the scale of a mission to dissuade Russia from hitting the eastern and southeastern flanks of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, with the addition of thousands of additional troops, albeit the majority will remain in their home countries and only deploy when necessary.
• The identification of Russia as the “greatest and most immediate security danger”
• A new “complete aid package” for Ukraine, which includes equipment to combat Russian drones and provide secure communication.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the assembly of heads of state and government in the Spanish capital will be a “transformative summit since our security is at a crossroads.”
Even a year ago, it would have been inconceivable for all member nations to agree to enhance their defenses to the extent that they have now.
A NATO defense minister is believed to have informed his counterparts during a meeting at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels last week that a tragedy similar to the one in Bucharest cannot occur on NATO territory.
If Russia attempted to invade, it would be annihilated.
This altered perception of the threat is altering NATO’s approach to deterring it.
The allies are likely to shift from relying solely on the fear of punishment to dissuade President Putin’s actions to what some refer to as “deterrence by denial.”
Kusti Salm, the highest-ranking official at the Estonian Ministry of Defense, indicated that it would function by having bigger numbers of troops on the ground before any invasion.
In a briefing with journalists, he stated, “You can field adequate and sufficient forces, and you signal to your possible adversary that the force-overmatch is at a level where they would lose immediately.”
“This message should cause them to lose their desire to invade… Even if Russia tried, they would be wiped off the face of the earth within the first few hours.”
The mobilization of forces occurred within days.
The new thinking needs NATO members to have a greater number of combat-capable soldiers, sailors, marines, and aircrew in various states of preparedness. This can span anywhere between two days and six months.
The NATO Response Force, or NRF, provides around 40,000 highly-trained troops and women to US General Tod Walters, the Supreme Allied Leader for Europe and the alliance’s top military commander. In the aftermath of Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, when the Kremlin grabbed Crimea and supported separatists in the east, its size tripled.
Under the planned new structure, the scale of the capabilities will increase and the name will likely be changed to the Allied Reaction Force (ARF).
Each member state, except Iceland, which has an army, is said to be considering increasing the preparedness of more of its forces.
Under so-called “regional plans” that are currently being developed and are not anticipated to be finalized until the end of the year, they may be charged with defending a particular section of NATO territory.
The ARF will be around six times larger than the NRF, according to a military officer familiar with the planning. This would amount to around 240,000 military soldiers.
A second military official confirmed hearing the six-fold number.
According to a NATO source, a decision has not yet been made and the ultimate figure for the increase in high readiness forces will likely be lower.
Strengthening of defenses
A further strengthening of NATO’s defenses in eight nations along its eastern and southeastern borders is also included in the new strategy.
Mr. Stoltenberg disclosed on Tuesday, in an interview with the news website Politico, that allies will agree “to strengthen battlegroups in the east to the brigade level.” A battlegroup consists of approximately 1,000 soldiers, while a brigade might range from 3,000 to 5,000.
The comments suggest the expansion of the eight existing missions in the three Baltic states, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary.
Already, allies such as the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, and Germany are contributing forces to the battlegroups there.
Posting soldiers overseas is costly and, according to some partners, mostly superfluous given that NATO will likely have months of notice before Russia launches an invasion, as was the case in the year leading up to the Ukraine campaign.
This year, the United Kingdom, which leads the NATO mission in Estonia, increased its in-country deployment to two battlegroups.
Ben Wallace, the defense secretary, has stated that it is “very likely” that a third will be added, transforming the force into a small brigade of approximately 3,000 soldiers; however, some of the new troops may be stationed at home.
Germany, which leads the battlegroup in Lithuania, is increasing its commitment to a brigade and has stated that it will have “preassigned” troops on standby at home if they are required.
In contrast, the Baltic states, with Russia in their backyard, desire more ground troops.
They would also prefer NATO to bolster its defenses even further, such as with an Israeli-style “iron dome” air defense able to shoot down Russian missiles from the sky.
According to military and diplomatic sources, it is unlikely that such a move will be agreed upon shortly, although stronger air defenses are now being considered.
Away from the immediate issue, allies in Madrid will also unveil a new “strategic concept” – a plan for NATO on the risks and difficulties it faces. This will include China, climate change, cyber warfare, and the increasing capabilities in space.
