At its height, the so-called caliphate ruled over almost one-third of Syria and forty percent of Iraq – a territory larger than Iceland – but the infamous terrorist organization is now greatly diminished.
Experts predict that Islamic State would attempt to release 10,000 fighters from Syrian jails in 2023, even though it no longer controls broad swaths of Iraq and Syria.
The iconic terrorist organization is far less than it was in 2014, but it remains a threat in dangerous portions of the Middle East, Afghanistan, and parts of Africa.
In addition, there are concerns that a potential Turkish ground offensive in Syria could provide the ideal conditions for IS to retake power.
Dr. Shiraz Maher, an expert on the Middle East, said, “Blink and you’ll miss it; ISIS will be back.”
In a year where other events have dominated the news, IS has been up to whether it could retake vast swaths of territory.
IS has been functioning at a “vastly decreased” level since its last bastions in Syria fell to Western-backed forces, according to terror specialist Matthew Henman.
He stated, “However, the level of threat and operational activity has remained quite consistent over this period.
The group has maintained a consistent rate of insurgent violence in several strategic locations.
Mr. Henman, who is employed by the Janes intelligence agency, stated that the group and its affiliates further abroad are intent on exploiting regional instabilities and still harbor territorial ambitions.
Attempting to seize territory in Africa
IS has multiple branches, or provinces, in the Middle East and Africa. Each group has a regional leader who swears allegiance to the IS’s overarching leader.
IS’s current head is Abu al Hussein al Husseini al Qurayshi since his predecessor blew himself up in October as Free Syrian Army (FSA) soldiers drew in.
At its height, the so-called caliphate of IS ruled over almost a third of Syria and forty percent of Iraq, an area larger than Iceland.
In recent years, the majority of the group’s attention has shifted to west Africa, where multinational task forces are attempting to prevent it from establishing a foothold.
Islamic State in Khorasan Province, the group’s regional affiliate in Afghanistan, has upped its attacks since the Taliban retook power.
Following a coordinated attack by Islamic State terrorists on a Chinese-owned hotel in the heart of Kabul, China recommended its citizens depart the country earlier this month.
There are efforts to release thousands of imprisoned insurgents.
Despite its weakened presence, IS activities in Iraq and Syria continue to pose a threat.
Kurdish troops in northeast Syria are holding over 70,000 suspected IS members, including women, children, and approximately 10,000 IS militants.
IS has made explicit its intention to liberate its adherents. In January, it utilized vehicles and explosives to breach the walls of Hassakeh’s Gweiran Prison in an attempt to release the 3,000 prisoners confined there.
Dr. Shiraz Maher, a senior lecturer at King’s College London, asserts that the danger of the Islamic State releasing thousands of imprisoned fighters is “the single greatest security threat to the West.
He stated, “The Syrian Democratic Forces have repeatedly stated that they are sitting on a ticking time bomb that they are unable to handle on their own.”
Many nations have been unwilling to deal with the foreign fighters held by the SDF.
Dr. Maher warned that the delicate situation could be jeopardized if Turkey carries out its threat to invade Kurdish territory on land.
Such an occurrence could cause Kurdish authorities to move resources presently defending its network of detention centers to the front line, giving IS a “huge capacity” to liberate its adherents.
Dr. Maher stated, “We must think imaginatively and be courageous to deal with this issue and eliminate it immediately.”
People will perish in the streets of Berlin, London, and Madrid if ISIS returns to Syria and Iraq.
