Election Projections and Party Standings
Exit polls suggest that Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice party may clinch the majority of seats in the upcoming general election. However, holding onto power for a third term could pose a challenge.
According to an Ipsos poll, the Law and Justice party, known as PiS, is projected to garner 36.8% of the vote, while the centrist opposition is expected to secure 31.6%.
Donald Tusk’s Ambitions and Victory Rally
Nonetheless, Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition stands a better chance of forming a coalition if these projections prove accurate. Tusk aims to put an end to PiS’s eight-year rule under its leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
The leader of PiS has expressed uncertainty about whether the party’s success can be translated into another term in power. Mr. Tusk, addressing a sizable gathering of jubilant supporters in what appeared to be a victory rally in Warsaw, declared, “Poland has won, democracy has triumphed. This marks the end of the PiS’s rule.”
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As the exit poll graphic appeared on the screen, Mr. Tusk was met with raucous applause and chants of his name, sparking jubilation among his supporters.
The exit poll results left supporters bewildered, and election officials subsequently estimated a turnout of approximately 72.9%, the highest level since the fall of communism in 1989.
It was stated that PiS is on track to secure 200 seats in the 460-seat Sejm, or parliament, which falls significantly short of the 230 seats required for a majority. Relying on the far-right Confederation party, whose leader acknowledged the party performed considerably worse than expected with 12 seats, seems unlikely.
Mr. Kaczynski has strongly asserted that his opponent is a puppet of Berlin and Brussels and has pledged to maintain the party’s staunch anti-immigration stance.
This election is of paramount importance for Poland’s future within the European Union, and it is the most significant since the collapse of communism, according to Civic Coalition leader Donald Tusk. If the exit poll is accurate, Tusk’s party will have a greater opportunity to form a comprehensive coalition with the center-right Third Way and the left-leaning Lewica.
However, moments before the polls closed, PiS party supporters displayed few smiles. Mr. Kaczynski remarked, “Hope is all that remains. Whether we are in power or in opposition, we will continue to pursue our goals and protect Poland from betrayal.”
Supporters of the Polish Socialists (PiS) displayed their courage by brandishing Polish flags and chanting “Jaroslaw” despite the exit poll indicating a loss of 35 seats since the 2019 election.
Extensive lines formed in front of polling stations throughout Poland and beyond.
Voter Turnout and Public Sentiment
Voters crowded the marble vestibule of the Stalinist Palace of Culture in Warsaw, spilling over into the square beyond.
Agnes, a PiS supporter, explained, “The campaign was extremely intense and emotional, which is why there are so many people.”
Higher voter turnout was a result of Poland’s intense election campaign. Board chairman Sylwester Marciniak stated at a news conference, “It appears that we have exceeded the previous record for voter turnout.”
In central Warsaw, where many voters brought children and pets, security and election officials helped elderly voters up the stairs.
Voters expressed concern about the election’s outcome, deeming it pivotal for Poland’s future direction. Regardless of the victor, Poland’s support for Ukraine in the ongoing conflict is unlikely to change.
Another voter named Ela stated, “A conflict has erupted on our doorstep. We must trust that the government will lead us in the right direction and bolster our resistance to Russia.
Over 30,000 voting booths served voters, including huge lines outside Poland, where 400,000 expats registered to vote.
In London, Magdalena Bozek declared, “These are the most significant elections in which I have participated in my entire life. It’s been quite a challenging eight years for us, for pro-Europeans.”
The Polish parliament operates under a partisan list-based proportional representation system, divided into forty-one districts. Expat ballots are counted in the district of Warsaw.
Five parties are expected to surpass the 5% threshold and secure seats in the 460-seat Sejm. Poland is also casting its votes for the Senate, the upper chamber.
Post-Election Implications and Government Formation
Ordinarily, President Andrzej Duda would invite the largest party to form a government. If PiS wins but fails to win a confidence vote in the Sejm, parliament will nominate a prime minister. Following this, the prime minister would select a government that would subsequently require a vote of confidence.
