- Muizzu’s party wins unexpectedly, secures significant parliamentary majority
- Concerns arise over concentration of power, democratic transparency
- Economic challenges loom, debt distress alert issued by IMF
The decisive victory of Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s party in Sunday’s parliamentary elections was not anticipated by many. This individual’s victory in the presidential election the year prior was due to an accident.
During that period, the 45-year-old mayor of the capital Male abruptly registered as a proxy candidate for the presidency, after the opposition leader, former President Abdulla Yameen, was disqualified from running by the Supreme Court on account of a bribery conviction.
Political campaign banners and posters conspicuously showcased Yameen’s visage. In addition, the front and center position at campaign rallies remained vacant, designating it for the incarcerated leader.
Voters were enticed by Muizzu’s pledges to secure Yameen’s release and see through the politician’s “India out” campaign, which aimed to expel Indian military personnel stationed in the Maldives, an archipelago inhabited by 500,000 people in the Indian Ocean, to end what they deemed New Delhi’s disproportionate influence in the region.
However, Muizzu and Yameen, who was placed under house arrest, fell out shortly after his October election victory, prompting the president-elect to form the People’s National Congress (PNC). Amidst the tumultuous division, Muizzu appeared to encounter considerable difficulty in securing sufficient support for the parliamentary elections on Sunday, given the continued strength of the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), which maintains a supermajority in the outgoing Majlis or parliament.
However, Muizzu’s PNC won every vote over the weekend.
With 66 seats won by the party and nine seats taken by its allies, the president has the support of 75 legislators in the 93-member house, which is sufficient to amend the constitution should he so choose. However, the MDP secured a mere twelve seats. Furthermore, Yameen’s party did not secure any victories.
Abraham Ismail, a former lawmaker and the founder of Mandhu College in Male, remarked that Muizzu now possesses “absolute power.” “This degree of majority is not desirable. Anticipate the absence of any mechanisms to check or balance the president’s authority.”
Ismail, who was instrumental in formulating the Maldives’ constitution, expressed concern over the possibility of a resurgence of “tyranny” almost twenty years after the Maldives embraced multiparty democracy. “The PNC is not an authentic political organisation.” He stated, “It is not emanating from the ground up.” “It was established during Muizzu’s ascent to power, and the party has neither individuals nor structures to hold him accountable.” In essence, each member of parliament elected on the PNC ticket is subject to the whims of the president.
Ismail added that this victory grants the president “virtually absolute authority over the judiciary.” “An overhaul of the judicial system is highly probable, with the potential substitution of the entire bench of the Supreme Court.” “Moreover, judges may be compelled to compromise their judicial independence in order to maintain their positions, thereby creating an environment conducive to tyranny,” he added.
That the government “can virtually rewrite the constitution” is of equal concern, according to Ismail, as it could potentially erode provisions guaranteeing fair elections and impose term limits on elected officials.
Relations with India are at an all-time low
Already, the symptoms are cause for concern.
Despite Muizzu’s assurances during the presidential campaign that he would not target his opponents, one of the initial measures implemented by his government was the cessation of online access to several critical news and satire websites.
Following a public outrage, the government did retract its position.
“I foresee significant challenges for the democracy of the Maldives,” said Dhauru newspaper managing editor Ahmed “Hiriga” Zahir. Concerns have been raised regarding transparency.” The veteran journalist stated that the Muizzu administration has neglected to divulge information regarding the cost of the presidential palace and the number of political appointments it has executed. “Six months into his term, the government and the media have had virtually no interaction.” If this continues without significant opposition, the future of our democracy will be bleak.”
Nonetheless, the Maldivian public is likely to turn against Muizzu in the subsequent election if he fails to fulfill campaign promises, according to Zahir.
The most spectacular of the infrastructure development pledges made by the president, who by profession was a civil engineer, was the construction of a brand new population center on an island reclaimed from the sea and connected to the capital via an underwater conduit.
However, it is uncertain whether he is capable of completing these enormous undertakings.
The debt of the tourism-reliant island nation is approximately 113 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), with over half of that amount owed to China and India for approximately $1.6 billion each. In February, the country was issued a high debt distress alert by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which urged “urgent policy adjustments” such as healthcare and subsidy program reforms, as well as the dismantling of excessive state-owned enterprises.
The situation is quite difficult,” said Mark Bohlund, principal analyst at REDD, a provider of financial intelligence based in London. “I believe the Maldives will at some point require assistance from abroad. Regardless of the origin (India, China, or the Middle East).
However, very little assistance has been provided thus far.
Relations with India, which has frequently intervened to assist the Maldives, including during the COVID-19 pandemic, have reached an all-time low as a result of Muizzu’s endeavors to expel the 75 Indian military personnel that are currently stationed within the nation. Two Dornier aircraft donated by India are utilized by the forces for medical evacuations and rescue operations. They will be replaced with civilians by New Delhi, and the final group is scheduled to depart the Maldives on May 10.
In January, three deputy ministers of Muizzu made derogatory remarks regarding Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, labeling him a “clown” for initiating a campaign to promote tourism on the Lakhswadeep islands, which are situated to the north of the Maldives archipelago. This further strained relations.
Indian social media activists called for a boycott of Maldives tourism in response to the dispute. Since then, tourist arrivals from India, which dominated the industry last year, have plummeted.
“Great leverage” in China’s favor
Muizzu has also received little assistance from Middle Eastern partners.
The visit, which was slated to occur shortly after his inauguration in November, was unexpectedly canceled without any provision for an explanation. Although the president visited Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, no public proposals for financial assistance have been made in those countries.
China has also thus far exhibited a timid stance.
Although Muizzu visited Beijing in January and was referred to as an “old friend” by Chinese President Xi Jinping, the nature of the assistance extended, if any, remains uncertain. The Maldives has received grant assistance from China, the amount of which was not disclosed, according to Maldivian media. Additionally, China has expressed its willingness to restructure debt repayments, of which a significant portion is due in 2026.
REDD notes, however, that the Maldives may not be able to avert escalating external debt distress through the restructuring of Chinese debt alone, as a $500 million Islamic bond is also approaching maturity in 2026.
Muizzu’s resounding victory has made China more amenable. “China has considerable leverage,” the former official said, adding that the country will likely demand favors in exchange, such as access to Maldives-straddling east-west trade routes and the ratification of a Free Trade Agreement that has been pending since 2014. Diplomats from both India and the West have previously voiced concerns that this access could enable China to establish a military outpost in the Indian Ocean.
Even if it meant a financial alleviation, David Brewster, a senior research fellow at the National Security College in Australia, was skeptical that the Maldives would permit a Chinese military presence.
“Don’t miss out! Grab your free shares of Webull UK today!”
“China will undoubtedly have considerable leverage, but the existence of a military presence would come as a complete surprise to me.” “Because that would have such severe repercussions on the Maldives’ relations with India and other nations,” he explained, adding that the Maldives currently owes India a “huge debt.”
Drawing inspiration from neighboring Sri Lanka, an additional country that experienced a financial crisis in 2022 and was heavily indebted to China, Brewster pondered the extent of assistance that Beijing could potentially extend.
Regarding debt relief and debt renegotiation, China’s assistance in Sri Lanka was notably lacking. He stated, “Therefore, Beijing’s intentions in the Maldives remain unknown.” “India provided Sri Lanka with a substantial loan that proved instrumental in assisting the nation through the crisis, even as the repayment of all outstanding international obligations was postponed.” He further stated that China reluctantly consented to a debt agreement itself only afterward.
He predicted that the Maldives would likely require IMF assistance very shortly.
“It will be intriguing to observe the outcome, specifically China’s inclination towards participating constructively or not,” he further stated.
