- No Gaza ceasefire; Biden dispatches CIA director for talks
- Hamas demands unconditional return, truce, Israeli troop withdrawal
- Netanyahu vows to fight until Hamas destroyed and captives freed
It was never going to be simple for Israel and the Palestinian organisation Hamas to reach a ceasefire in Gaza. The outcome of weeks of negotiations has been no agreement. Nonetheless, global pressure is increasing.
The most significant indication is that the Biden administration has dispatched CIA Director William Burns to Cairo for the most recent round of negotiations.
Hamas has maintained, at least in public view, its initial demands of an unconditional return of displaced Palestinians to northern regions of the territory, a permanent truce, and the total withdrawal of Israeli troops from the territory.
Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, maintains that the country will continue to fight until Hamas is destroyed and the captives it is holding are liberated.
“America exerts considerably more pressure on Egypt and Qatar to exert pressure on Hamas, as well as on Israel.” Gershon Baskin, who assisted in the 2011 negotiations between Hamas and Israel for the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, remarked, “That is self-evident.”
“The presence of the director of the CIA, which demanded the presence of all high-level negotiators.” This development suggests increased American pressure.
However, that does not imply an imminent agreement.
Israeli authorities have expressed a readiness to engage in certain concessions in response to the growing discontent among the nation’s primary allies, which includes the United States. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant stated earlier this week, advocating for the necessity of a truce.
A truce that resulted in a temporary cessation of hostilities in November was predicated on the exchange of Palestinian detainees held in Israeli jails for the release of a portion of the hostages captured during Hamas attacks. As per the reporting of Israeli authorities, the number of captives in Gaza stands at 133, with the confirmed demise of at least 30 of them.
The most recent US proposal calls for Hamas to release forty surviving hostages during the initial phase of a six-week ceasefire. Female captives, including soldiers, males aged 50 and above, and those with critical medical conditions would be given priority.
Then, Israel would release a minimum of 700 Palestinians, including approximately 100 who are currently serving life sentences for the murder of Israelis, a charge that has historically generated controversy within Israel.
Hamas, however, reportedly informed negotiators that it is not holding forty individuals in this category, which raises the possibility that a significantly greater number of hostages have perished than was previously believed or that they are in the control of Palestinian Islamic Jihad or another armed group.
Netanyahu’s manoeuvrability in Israel is constrained by pressure from various sectors of society and politics. Even though the majority of the Israeli populace continues to support the conflict, mounting pressure is on him to negotiate a deal that would ensure the hostages’ release.
The families have organised significant demonstrations, alleging that the prime minister was preoccupied with ensuring his political survival rather than ensuring the safe return of the captives. Also increasing are demands for the resignation of Mr. Netanyahu.
Within Mr. Netanyahu’s governing coalition, which includes far-right, ultranationalist allies who refuse concessions to Hamas and insist the conflict must continue, divisions have intensified.
Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich advised the prime minister that heightened pressure on Hamas was crucial for rescuing the hostages and destroying the organisation. Similarly, Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir threatened to remove Prime Minister Netanyahu from office if he failed to proceed with the heavily anticipated offensive into the southern Gaza city of Rafah.
According to Israeli officials, Rafah is a critical location to penetrate Hamas’s four operational brigades and potentially conceal its senior leadership.
However, an offensive in the city, where an estimated 1.5 million Palestinians are seeking refuge in congested camps, is opposed by virtually everyone outside of Israel due to concerns about the devastation it could inflict on civilians.
Monday, in what may have been an effort to deflect domestic criticism, Mr Netanyahu stated that a date for an operation in Rafah had been established without providing further details.
Mr. Baskin stated that there is a rebellion in the government and within [Mr. Netanyahu’s party] Likud against Netanyahu reaching any agreement they believe should not be reached.
“Netanyahu does not act freely. He is a political hostage under his government.
Hamas, on the other hand, has not yet provided a formal response to the most recent proposal; however, it has stated that although it was intrigued by a deal “that ceases the aggression against our people,” the offer fell short of its requirements.
“The Israeli position continues to be unyielding,” a statement from the organisation read.
The response from the group was deemed “less than encouraging” by the White House.
Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, who is believed to be hiding in tunnels encircled by guards and hostages, will likely render the final decision. However, communicating with him is challenging and requires multiple intermediaries and days.
Mr Baskin added that the group demanded a more significant say in the release of Palestinian detainees and would not consent to their deportation to another nation; these points could potentially impede negotiations.
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Without assurances of a permanent truce, Hamas further believes that Israel will continue to attack the organisation after the hostages are liberated.
Despite the pressing and critical circumstances faced by the civilian population of Gaza, the leadership of this group may perceive an opportunity to secure concessions as global disapproval of Israel continues to escalate.
The Gaza War, which Israel initiated in retaliation for the Hamas attacks on October 7 that claimed the lives of approximately 1,200 people, has, according to the health ministry operated by Hamas, claimed the lives of over 33,000 Palestinians, destroyed vast swaths of the territory, and left many on the verge of famine.
“The primary challenges, in my experience, are whether or not the principal decision maker on both sides is amenable to a deal,” “That is unclear,” stated Mr. Baskin.
“Both Netanyahu and [Hamas political commander in Gaza Yahya Sinwar] do not appear to be mutually amenable to reaching an agreement. However, they will discover the middle ground once they are.
Unsurprisingly, a Hamas spokesperson interpreted Mr Netanyahu’s remarks regarding the scheduling of an assault on Rafah as casting doubt on the continued negotiations’ raison d’être.
