- Ukraine targets Russian military in Sevastopol with missile strike
- Destruction of Russian fleet in Crimea hinders Black Sea operations
- Russian advances in eastern Ukraine, targeting Chasiv Yar
Late on Saturday night, Ukraine launched a catastrophic missile strike against Russian military targets in the Crimean port of Sevastopol, causing the Black Sea Fleet to be further incapacitated.
Forty Storm Shadow missiles, decoy missiles, and drones reportedly caused extensive damage to various infrastructure, including an oil depot, the Yamal and the Azov, two Ropucha-class landing ships, and a communications centre.
The Yamal sustained the most severe damage. Two days later, according to Ukrainian military intelligence, the ship was listing to starboard with a large hole in the upper deck, and Russian crews were forced to continue pumping the bilges to keep it afloat. Reportedly, the destruction of the Yamal and the Azov reduced Russia’s fleet of thirteen landing ships at the outbreak of the conflict to three operational vessels.
Coordination of a maritime assault by Ukrainian military intelligence utilising Magura V5 surface drones occurred in tandem with the aerial assault. The surface drones also damaged the Ivan Khurs reconnaissance ship, according to deputy military intelligence commander Vadym Skibitskyi, where the Yamal was moored.
Beyond the ethical gratification derived from deactivating the Yamal, which had participated in the 2014 acquisition of Crimea, Ukraine, we also gained a practical advantage.
According to reports, Sevastopol is the only facility in the Black Sea capable of loading Kalibr ballistic missiles onto Russian ships and submarines. Port attacks have reportedly reduced the number of vessels transporting these exceptionally difficult-to-intercept missiles.
The attack by Ukraine occurred one day after Russia targeted energy and other infrastructure in Ukraine with 151 drones and missiles launched from occupied Crimea and Russia.
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, their defences intercepted 37 88 missiles of various varieties and 55 of the 63 Shahed drones. According to Ukrainian authorities, power and water disruptions were subsequently restored due to the remainder.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, stated, “Russian strikes on energy infrastructure… likely aim to collapse the energy grid in part to impede Ukrainian efforts to rapidly expand its [defence industrial base].”
Russia’s domestic security deteriorates
The objective of Russian airstrikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure has also been to erode the confidence and backing of the Ukrainian people for the conflict.
On the day of its massive strike, however, Russian insecurity was at an all-time high. At least 133 Russian civilians were slaughtered by four assailants at the Crocus City Hall concert hall, located on the outskirts of Moscow. Later, a Taliban dissident group, the Islamic State in Khorasan, claimed responsibility.
Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, and other prominent individuals nevertheless attempted to attribute the attack to Ukraine.
Putin posed the question, “Who benefits from this?” in a televised address on Monday. “This heinous act could potentially be a single incident among a sequence of endeavours by individuals who have been opposing our nation against the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv since 2014.” Putin stated, “As is common knowledge, the Nazis never hesitated to employ the filthiest and most inhumane methods to accomplish their objectives.”
Russian authorities apprehended four Tajik nationals on suspicion that they were attempting to flee to Ukraine in a van bearing a Ukrainian licence plate.
Beyond Russia, the explanation could have travelled better.
President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus speculated that the van may have been en route to his nation after its occupants were apprehended on Russian territory bordering Belarus.
On March 7, the United States embassy in Moscow warned against attending large gatherings, and Washington stated that its intelligence agencies had complied with a duty to warn policy by directly providing Russian authorities with intelligence.
Three days before the attack, Putin dismissed these and other warnings as “blatant blackmail” and “an attempt to intimidate and destabilise our society”; thus, the lack of reaction to intelligence originated from the highest levels.
Timothy Snyder, a history professor at Yale University, wrote, “The terrorists’ vehicle was stopped near Bryansk, which is in western Russia and thus vaguely near Ukraine; this suggests that the four Tajiks in a Renault were planning to cross the Ukrainian border; they had Ukrainian backers; it was a Ukrainian operation; the Americans were behind it.”
“The reasoning presented here is somewhat lacking in merit.” Furthermore, the sequence of associations needs a factual foundation.
The Russians are pursuing Chasiv Yar
The past week witnessed further minor advances by Russian forces in the eastern region of Ukraine.
Since Avdiivka’s defeat on February 17, they have been gradually advancing and have assumed the offensive initiative this year.
On March 20, Ukrainian forces reported repelling a “massive” assault that targeted Lyman from the northern terminus of the front in Kharkiv. The Russian positions were marginally advanced from their position the previous day due to the assault.
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Further south, in the Donetsk region, Russian forces appeared to have their attention set on the May-destroyed Chasiv Yar, located west of Bakhmut. Over the week, they progressively engulfed two localities, namely Bohdanivka and Ivanivske, situated to the northeast and southeast, respectively, of Chasiv Yar.
Operationally, seizing Chasiv Yar would be more consequential than the Russian capture of Avdiivka, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
To begin with, this would entail that Ukrainian forces would be unable to harass Russian logistics convoys in occupied territory east of Bakhmut; instead, they would be compelled to deploy perilous ordnance near the front lines to disrupt Russian logistics.
The ISW added that Chasiv Yar would significantly advance Russian forces towards their goal of seizing Donetsk’s final main urban centres, namely Konstyantynivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk.
“At this time, in order to protect Ukrainian operational security, available imagery that ISW will not present or describe in greater detail indicates that Ukrainian forces have erected substantial ring-shaped fortifications in the Chasiv Yar region; Russian forces will likely have difficulty penetrating these defences at their current offensive tempo in the area,” stated the ISW.
