- Tories face “electoral extinction,” Reform surges
- Polls show Conservatives’ vote share plummeting
- Labour projected to win with 262-seat majority
According to pollsters, the Tories are on the verge of “electoral extinction,” with Reform UK also surging in the rankings.
Two polls published today are bad news for Rishi Sunak. One shows a four-point dip, and the other indicates his party will win only 72 seats.
A Savanta poll for The Sunday Telegraph found the Tories down four points to 21% of the vote, the lowest by that pollster since the final days of Theresa May’s premiership in early 2019.
The poll showed Reform UK up three points with 13% of the vote, which boosted Nigel Farage’s campaign.
A separate survey poll for Best for Britain, published by The Times, indicated that the Conservatives will gain only 72 seats in the next parliament, compared to 456 for Labour.
The result would give Labour a 262-seat majority, greatly surpassing Sir Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide. The Liberal Democrats would gain 56 seats, Reform seven, and the Greens one.
The Savanta poll, conducted from June 12 to 14, included 2,045 respondents aged 18 and above, likewise showed Labour leading by two points with 46% of the vote.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, stated that the survey indicated “nothing short of electoral extinction for the Conservative Party.”
He added that Conservative candidates’ aspirations are being dashed as poll after poll shows the Conservative Party in increasingly terrible straits—and the campaign is barely halfway over.
There’s a strong sense that things could get worse for the Conservatives, and Rishi Sunak’s time is running out as postal votes arrive in millions of letterboxes.
The two surveys follow a YouGov poll released on Thursday night, which showed Nigel Farage’s party ahead of the Conservatives for the first time, with 19% of the vote to the Conservatives’ 18%.
The development spurred Mr Farage to designate Reform as the “opposition to Labour” ahead of the election.
Mr Sunak has consistently claimed that a vote for Reform would “give a blank cheque to Labour,” which Mr Farage has disputed.
Survation questioned 22,000 people between May 31 and June 13. On June 4, early in the polling period, Mr Farage stated he was the new leader of Reform and would be running as a candidate in Clacton, Essex.
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According to the Survation results, the Tories’ vote share would have been cut in half, from 44% in 2019 to 24%, while Labour’s would have grown from 32% to 40%.
Speaking to the media at the G7 conference in Italy yesterday, the prime minister stated, “We are only halfway through this election, so I am still fighting hard for every vote.”
That poll shows that the only poll that matters is July 4. If that poll is replicated on July 4, Labour would have a blank cheque to tax everyone, their home, pension, car, and family, and I’ll be fighting hard to prevent that from happening.
Mr Sunak also stated that he would serve another five years in politics, regardless of the election outcome.
When asked if he would commit to serving a full five-year term as prime minister if he won the election and five years as an MP if he lost, he said, “Yes. Yes.”
He also responded “no” when asked if he planned to adjust his campaign tactics in light of Reform’s challenge.
