- Projected surpassing 1.5°C warming threshold
- Met Office forecasts 2024 climate milestone
- Human-induced warming primary cause
The Met Office predicts that the coming year will mark a concerning turning point in climate history.
According to projections, 2024 could mark the first time global warming surpasses the 2.7°F (1.5°C) threshold in recorded history.
Established in the Paris Agreement, this threshold is considered the potential point of irreversibility for climate change.
Despite 2023 being projected as the warmest year to date, 2024 is expected to surpass that record.
According to the Met Office, climate change and a significant El Niño event have contributed to the extreme heat.
Temperatures are projected to increase by 2.41°F (1.34°C) to 2.84°F (1.58°C) above the pre-industrial average in the coming year, according to scientists.
Dr. Dunstone, the forecast’s leader, states, “The forecast is supported by a significant El Niño event and is consistent with the ongoing global warming trend of 0.2°C [0.36°F] per decade.”
We anticipate two consecutive years of global temperature records being broken, and for the first time, we predict a reasonable probability of a year with a temporary maximum exceeding 1.5 °C [2.7°F].
Countries reached a consensus in 2015 to prevent the global temperature from exceeding 2.7°F (1.5°C), as this threshold signifies the onset of dangerous climate instability.
A solitary transient occurrence surpassing 2.7°F (1.5°C) would not violate the Paris Agreement, according to Dr. Dunstone.
Even so, he asserts that this would “certainly mark a turning point in the annals of climate history.”
Factors Contributing to Enhanced Temperatures
In addition to climate change caused by human activities, several other factors will contribute to enhanced temperatures in the coming year.
Specifically, a notable El Niño phenomenon will induce a transient increase in mean temperatures.
A change in the distribution of balmy water in the Pacific Ocean constitutes an El Niño event.
This results in transient periods of weakened winds and warmer coastal temperatures.
Adam Scaife, a professor at the Met Office, stated, “Alongside climate change, anomalous high temperatures in the North Atlantic and Southern Oceans also contribute to the emergence of new global temperature extremes.”
Natural variations in worldwide temperatures are probable, and it is improbable that succeeding years will surpass the threshold of 2.7°F (1.5°C).
Professor Scaife maintains, however, that climate change remains the most significant factor.
“Ongoing human-induced warming since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution is the primary cause of record-breaking temperatures,” he stated.
This forecast is made following a series of weather phenomena that have set new records.
The warmest November in recorded history occurred this year, marking the fifth consecutive month of such records.
According to the Met Office, 2023 surpassed its temperature forecasts and is now virtually the warmest year on record.
The Met Office projected that global temperatures would be 1.94°F (1.08°C) to 2.38°F (1.32°C) higher than the pre-industrial average by the end of 2022.
However, the eleven-month average has been 2.52°F (1.4°C) higher than the 1850-1900 average.
Based on the forecasts provided by the Met Office, 2024 is projected to mark the eleventh consecutive year in which temperatures surpass pre-industrial levels by 1.8°F (1°C).
COP28 Negotiations and Fossil Fuel Elimination Strategy
As the concluding stages of COP28 negotiations commence, optimism is high. Some representatives are expected to reach a consensus regarding a strategy to eliminate the use of fossil fuels.
Methane, an additional greenhouse gas contributing to global warming, has been the subject of several climate commitments. These commitments were discussed during the conference.
In contrast, according to a recent study by the Global Carbon Budget, fossil fuel combustion emissions peaked in 2023.
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