National Grid has warned that if gas supplies fall dangerously low this winter, British homes might lose electricity for up to three hours at a time.
The business stated that supply outages were “unlikely” but that they were possible if the energy crisis deteriorated.
There would likely be interruptions during busy hours, and customers would be notified beforehand.
As a “base case,” however, National Grid anticipates no concerns for residential properties.
At least one day in advance, customers would be notified about power outages that would occur during times of high demand, potentially in the morning or, more likely, between 4 pm and 9 pm.
They would be rotated so that not all regions of the country would be affected simultaneously.
During her candidacy for Conservative Party leadership in August, Prime Minister Liz Truss promised there would be no energy rationing this winter.
More than 40% of the United Kingdom’s electricity is produced by gas-fired power plants. Additionally, electricity is imported from continental Europe.
National Grid, the company responsible for keeping the lights on in England, Scotland, and Wales, stated that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused “unprecedented turbulence and volatility” in the energy markets.
Almost all gas flows from Russia to Europe have ceased, forcing countries to scramble for alternate sources.
National Grid stated that even though Britain is significantly less dependent on Russian gas than the rest of Europe, it might still be adversely affected by any supply disruptions on the continent.
In a paper, the author outlined three potential winter situations.
It is still of the opinion that sufficient energy will be available to produce the same amount of electricity as in recent winters.
However, it has modeled two additional troubling possibilities.
In the first scenario, the energy crisis in Europe would prevent Britain from importing electricity from France, Belgium, or the Netherlands, although Norway would continue to supply power.
National Grid cautioned that if no action was taken, this situation could result in power shortages.
However, it stated that it had reached agreements with EDF, Drax, and Uniper to maintain extra coal-fired power generators on standby, should they be required.
It will also launch a program on 1 November to encourage businesses and people to cut their electricity consumption during peak hours:
Households with smart meters could be compensated for conserving energy during peak hours by, for example, not using their washing machine or oven.
On average, households may receive £10 per day.
Larger enterprises will be compensated for reducing demand, such as by altering their energy usage patterns or switching to batteries or generators during peak hours.
Some suppliers have expressed reservations about the program, but National Grid is urging them to collaborate with consumers to secure the “maximum participation levels.”
It believes that with these procedures in place, supply interruptions will be avoided. However, it stated that it had modeled a second, more catastrophic scenario in which the European energy crisis worsens, resulting in a shortage of gas in Britain.
In such a case, distributors would be required to disconnect power to households and businesses for up to three hours during the day, the document states. The measure, which has not been employed since the 1970s, would require government and royal consent.
“In the odd event that we were in this circumstance, it would mean that some customers would be without power for predetermined intervals during the day – typically, this is thought to be three-hour blocks,” National Grid explained.
The number of people without electricity will depend on how many gas-powered stations are forced to close due to a gas shortage, according to the report.
In addition to vulnerable individuals, hospitals and “key enterprises” would be shielded from the changes.
National Grid stated that the industry would collaborate with the government to tell the public about such measures, including through news conferences in the style of Covid.
A separate assessment by the National Grid examining winter gas supplies warned of the possibility of a gas shortage this winter, which may be mitigated by paying higher costs in the case of a cold snap or a harsh winter.
As the new energy price guarantee went into effect on October 1, most households saw their energy bills increase. Nevertheless, the increase was less than anticipated after the government indicated it would limit household expenses to minimize widespread hardship.
The grid operator has assessed that this winter would be “difficult” for energy supplies.
Northern Ireland admonition
The report from National Grid pertains to the United Kingdom. However, there is also a warning that Northern Ireland might experience power outages between 2024 and 2025 if nothing is done.
System Operator NI (SONI) asserts that the issue is with the Kilroot power station and the environmental licenses that restrict its operation hours.
SONI reports that it is collaborating with the Department of the Economy and the regulator to resolve the situation.
This week, the industry regulator Ofgem issued a warning that the United Kingdom faces a “high risk” of gas shortages this winter, which might affect electricity supplies.
It was stated that a “gas supply emergency” could occur in the United Kingdom due to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Ofgem stated in response to National Grid’s projections, “We have one of the most reliable energy systems in the world and are in a favorable position.
“However, it is the responsibility of a responsible and prudent energy sector to ensure the appropriate contingency measures are in place. This is why we are working with the government, National Grid, and key partners to protect consumers so that the United Kingdom is ready for any challenges this winter.”
A government official stated that the government was “confident in our efforts to protect households and businesses in all possible winter scenarios.”
