- Turkey gears up for extensive local elections on March 31
- High stakes in Istanbul with mayoral race neck and neck
- AK Party and opposition navigate internal challenges and alliances
In contrast to the general tendency for local elections to elicit minimal attention beyond the town hall, Turkey becomes engrossed in the process of electing officials ranging from metropolitan mayors to neighbourhood representatives weeks prior to the actual voting day.
Ten months after the last presidential and parliamentary elections, Turkish television and newspapers have been awash with news, commentary, and debate regarding the March 31 local election.
Voters will elect over 23,000 officials nationwide, but the mayors chosen to govern Turkey’s 30 largest cities will receive the most attention.
This is particularly evident in Istanbul, the most populous and economically influential city in the country, where the triumph of the opposition in 2019 was perceived as a setback for the largely impeccable electoral record of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The mass was measured in Istanbul
The Turkish People’s Party (CHP) terminated its 25-year rule over Istanbul (Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party) and its conservative predecessors with a victory in the city five years ago.
Erdogan experienced a profound personal resonance with the grief of Istanbul, given his birth and upbringing in the city and his tenure as mayor during the 1990s.
Ejder Batur, the deputy chairman of the Istanbul branch of the AK Party, attributed Erdogan’s triumph at the national level, in part, to his tenure as mayor. This underscores the critical nature of local elections.
“His contributions and services to the daily lives of Istanbulites were extraordinary… “Moreover, the connection he forged with them served as a mechanism that propelled him to authority within the central government,” Batur explained.
CHP Deputy Chairman Ilhan Uzgel stated, “Istanbul has symbolic significance in every election, and all the major cities now have CHP mayors with the exception of Bursa, the fourth-largest city.”
With Antalya and Ankara mirroring Istanbul’s performance in 2019, the CHP retains authority over four of the country’s five largest cities, which collectively house one-third of Turkey’s populace.
Regaining control of Istanbul would additionally afford the AK Party the chance to marginalise CHP Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a prospective presidential challenger.
Turkey will witness the participation of approximately 35 political parties in this year’s elections. Due to the substantial level of voter engagement, the ballot paper in Istanbul will be approximately one metre (three feet) broad in order to accommodate all 49 mayoral candidates, 27 of whom are independents.
In Istanbul, however, the contest will primarily pit incumbent Imamoglu against former environment minister and AK Party candidate Murat Kurum.
Opinion polls indicate that the race is tied at the neck. In its February survey, Metropole, one of the most reputable polling organisations in Turkey, placed Imamoglu 3.3 percentage points ahead of Kurum.
Splintering adversary
An additional five years in the presidency and a parliamentary majority for the AK Party and its leader, Erdogan, who has been in office for twenty years, dealt a severe blow to opposition morale last year.
The most glaring distinction between the 2019 local elections and those of 2018 nationwide is the opposition alliance’s disintegration since the previous year.
The nationalist IYI Party has separated from the CHP, and the DEM Party, which was previously neutral in 2019, has now decided to field its candidates in opposition to the CHP.
According to metropolitan data from January and February, voter support for Imamoglu is declining among the two largest opposition blocs following the CHP, namely these parties.
As of last month, the percentage of DEM Party electors who supported Imamoglu declined from 35% in January to 32%, whereas the proportion of IYI Party supporters sank from 64% to 45%.
The CHP is also in disarray following its defeats in the presidential and parliamentary elections of May of last year.
It had aspired to depose Erdogan despite the economic turmoil and repercussions of the February earthquakes that devastated southern Turkey.
Co-president of Teneo, a global risk advisory firm based in New York, Wolfango Piccoli, described the local election as a “litmus test” for the CHP.
“Istanbul in particular and the opposition’s control over Turkey’s major cities constitutes its final significant holdout,” he stated. Opposition voters are already disillusioned in the wake of the elections of the previous year. The result of the forthcoming local elections may have a critical impact on the morale of [opposition] supporters.
Uzgel further recognised that CHP supporters experienced “a psychological and emotional breakdown.” “In an effort to regain the confidence and morale of the electorate in this election, there was an abrupt decline in sentiment,” he explained.
The force of momentum
In contrast, the AK Party is confronted with an internal schism as the New Welfare Party (YRP) elects to withdraw from its coalition and form an independent political party. This development has the potential to detract votes from AK Party candidates.
“The New Welfare Party has no chance of winning elections in the regions where it participates, but the CHP’s chances of winning are increased by its participation,” AK Party Deputy Chairman Efkan Ala told the state-run Anadolu Agency earlier this month.
Despite this, commentators assert that the AK Party is in the lead. Erdogan has assumed leadership of the regional campaign and attends rallies almost daily.
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According to Uzgel, the “dilemma of Erdogan’s political style” pertains to the potential advantage that “strong” opposition candidates like Imamoglu could gain from his hegemony over Turkish politics to the detriment of local AK Party politicians.
Following the seismic events of the previous year, the AK Party has directed its political efforts towards enhancing the seismic resilience of urban areas and ameliorating transport conditions in congested metropolises.
It has criticised the municipality of Istanbul, which is led by the CHP, claiming that it has failed to increase earthquake preparedness. In response, the municipality attributes this failure to blocked government funds.
Batur stated, “[The CHP in Istanbul] has performed abysmally, particularly in the areas of transport and earthquake-resistant urban transformation; these are the two most pressing concerns for our Istanbul neighbours at this time.
He added that the “inability of the opposition to fulfil the promises it made five years ago” would allow the “people-oriented” policies of the AK Party to prevail.
