The parties of both Tayyip Erdogan and his opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu claimed to be in the lead, but sources in both factions conceded that they may fall short of the 50% threshold needed to win the election outright.
Early results placed Erdogan comfortably in the lead, but as the vote tally progressed, his lead eroded, and a runoff on May 28 became imminent.
Both parties rejected the other’s tally, and no official result was announced. Mansur Yavas, the opposition mayor of Ankara, stated that a tally by his party indicated that Kilicdaroglu had 47.42% of the vote, while Erdogan had 46.48%.
Kilicdaroglu, who leads a six-party alliance, had a modest lead in pre-election polls, and two polls conducted on Friday put him above the 50% threshold.
A senior member of the opposition alliance, requesting anonymity, stated, “It appears that there will be no victor in the first round. Our data indicate, however, that Kilicdaroglu will lead.”
Turkish media, citing data from the state-owned agency Anadolu, reported that with nearly 75 percent of ballot boxes counted, Erdogan had 50.83 percent and Kilicdaroglu had 43.36 percent.
The election on Sunday is one of the most consequential in Turkey’s 100-year history, a contest that could terminate Erdogan’s tyrannical 20-year rule and reverberate far beyond the country’s borders.
Turkey, a NATO member with 85 million people, will elect a president. But also the country’s foreign policy, economics, and governance amid a serious cost of living problem.
In Western capitals, the Middle East, NATO, and Moscow, the elections, which are also for parliament, are being closely monitored.
A loss for Erdogan, one of President Vladimir Putin’s most important allies, will likely unnerve the Kremlin but bring relief to the Biden administration and several European and Middle Eastern leaders with whom Erdogan had strained relations.
Turkey’s longest-serving leader has transformed the NATO member and Europe’s second-largest nation into a global power, modernized it through megaprojects such as new bridges, hospitals, and airports, and created a military industry sought after by foreign nations.
His unstable low-interest rate strategy generated inflation and cost of living issues, rendering him vulnerable to public ire. His slow response to the southeast Turkey earthquake, which killed 50,000 people, angered voters.
Kilicdaroglu has vowed to steer Turkey in a new direction by reviving democracy after years of state repression, returning to orthodox economic policies, empowering institutions that lost autonomy under Erdogan’s close grip, and repairing frail ties with the West.
If the opposition prevails, thousands of political detainees and activists, including prominent figures such as Kurdish leader Selahattin Demirtas and philanthropist Osman Kavala, could be released.
Political polarization
“I see these elections as a choice between democracy and dictatorship,” said Ahmet Kalkan, 64, as he voted for Kilicdaroglu in Istanbul, echoing the fears of critics that Erdogan will govern more autocratically if he wins.
“I chose democracy, and I hope that my country also chooses democracy,” said retired healthcare worker Kalkan.
HaberTurk’s parliamentary poll gave Erdogan’s alliance 52% and the opposition 33%.
After two decades in power, Mehmet Akif Kahraman, who also voted in Istanbul, stated that Erdogan still represented the future, demonstrating the president’s continued popularity.
“God willing, Turkey will become a world leader,” he declared.
The parliamentary election is a contest between the People’s Alliance, which includes Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted AK Party (AKP) and the nationalist MHP, and Kilicdaroglu’s Nation Alliance, which includes his secularist Republican People’s Party (CHP), founded by Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.
HaberTurk’s parliamentary poll counted 62 percent of ballots and gave Erdogan’s alliance 52 percent and the opposition alliance 33 percent.
Change or persistence
Erdogan, a masterful campaigner, and persuasive orator, has drawn out all the stops on the campaign trail. His political career has survived a 2016 coup attempt and numerous corruption controversies. And he commands the fierce loyalty of religious Turks who once felt disenfranchised in secular Turkey.
Nonetheless, if the Turks do oust Erdogan, it will be primarily due to their declining prosperity and inability to meet basic needs, as a result of inflation exceeding 85 percent in October 2022 and the collapse of the lira currency.
Erdogan has consolidated his power over the majority of Turkey’s institutions and marginalized liberals and critics. Human Rights Watch’s World Report 2022 noted that Erdogan’s regime has set Turkey’s human rights record back decades.
The Nation Alliance may not win a legislative majority without Kurdish voters, who make up 15–20% of the population.
The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) is not a member of the main opposition alliance. But it opposes Erdogan vehemently after years of repression against its members.
