- Sudan conflict: Year-long war, escalating humanitarian crisis
- Army vs. paramilitary forces: Power struggle claims thousands of lives
- Diplomatic efforts fail; ethnic tensions fuel protracted conflict
Almost a year has passed since the outbreak of war in Sudan, which precipitated an irreparable humanitarian crisis and rekindled protracted political and ethnic animosities.
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have been engaged in an ongoing power conflict for the past two decades. Violent clashes have claimed the lives of approximately 16,000 individuals and displaced millions in the past year.
The United Nations reported on Tuesday of this week that thousands of desperate individuals continue to abandon the country daily “as if the emergency had begun yesterday.”
Diplomatic endeavours have proven ineffectual in resolving the crisis, which experts attribute in part to a plan supported internationally to merge the RSF and the army.
The following information pertains to the Sudanese civil conflict, the peacekeeping endeavours that have been initiated since its inception, and the current state of humanitarian affairs.
Why has a conflict ensued in Sudan?
A power conflict between army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo culminated in the outbreak of war in Sudan on April 15, 2023.
Following the overthrow of President Omar al-Bashir, who ruled Sudan for almost three decades, through a popular uprising in 2019, a precarious transition towards a democracy led by civilians was disrupted in 2021 when al-Burhan and Hemedti executed a coup.
The army and the RSF initially shared authority, but a December 2022 Framework Agreement supported by the international community exacerbated the ensuing power struggle between the two. To facilitate the transition to democracy and a broader reform of the security sector, this initiative sought to incorporate the RSF into the army.
While Western nations offered aid and debt relief as inducements and exerted pressure on the two sides to reach an agreement swiftly, each side feared ceding an excessive amount of control to the other in the new political order.
Jonas Horner, an independent researcher on Sudan, stated, “The Framework Agreement… brought to the forefront critical existential issues for both forces and their leaderships, including [RSF] integration into a single army, military divestment from lucrative sectors of the economy, and the possibility of [soldiers] facing justice for past abuses.”
“Above all else… both forces were concerned that the other would be left weaker.”
On April 15 of last year, in Khartoum, hostilities escalated between the two military forces when both factions dispatched armoured vehicles into the streets and engaged in reciprocal gunfire.
Which two factions are at odds in this conflict?
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), comprising approximately 300,000 personnel, serves as the nation’s military. General al-Burhan, the state’s military commander, rose through the ranks as a career officer during President al-Bashir’s administration.
Conversely, the RSF maintains an army of around 100,000 robustly outfitted personnel dispersed throughout the capital city of Khartoum and the Darfur region, which has historically served as the organization’s stronghold.
Armed factions of the Popular Defence Forces gave rise to the RSF. Amidst the Darfur conflict of the 2000s, al-Bashir’s government’s utilisation of Popular Defence Force groups (termed Janjaweed by insurgents) to assist the army in putting down a rebellion prompted accusations of war crimes against these groups.
The RSF, which was founded in 2013 by members of the Popular Defence Forces and is now an independent organisation led by Hemedti, an Arab Rizeigat from Darfur who has been primarily in hiding since the outbreak of war in April and is a camel-herder. Experts interpreted his visit to the leaders of other African states, including Uganda, this year as an attempt to establish his legitimacy as a political actor.
“Hemedti needs desperately for the public to perceive the RSF as a governing force.” “I believe this is the reason Hemedti met with heads of state,” said Kholood Khair, a Sudan expert and founding director of the Khartoum-based think tank Confluence Advisory.
Furthermore, European policies such as the 2017 Khartoum Process, which designated and funded the RSF to act as border guardians to stem African migration to Europe, were viewed as bolstering the organization’s legitimacy as a ruling force.
Although the RSF presently maintains a military advantage in active combat zones, allegations that their personnel have committed extrajudicial executions, sexual violence, and aid plundering have significantly eroded the legitimacy of the organisation in the eyes of the Sudanese people.
“I believe so many Sudanese… will never be at ease with the RSF governing them,” said Horner, who has worked for several Belgian-based think tanks, including the International Crisis Group.
Horner stated, “[The RSF’s] atrocities and extreme cruelty… is likely their greatest obstacle and makes it considerably more difficult for them to govern the country.”
Are additional factions engaged in the conflict?
Several additional factions have also opted to arm themselves.
“Numerous RSF adversaries are extremely motivated [hardline Muslim] forces that are vying for Sudan’s reestablishment.” The ideological motivation of many RSF combatants is significantly more significant than that of those who are there for financial gain.
Additionally, some armed organisations are SAF allies.
In October 2023, in addition, civilians established their coalition, known as “Taqaddum” or the Sudanese Coordination of Civil Democratic Forces.
This is led by former Sudanese prime minister Abdallah Hamdok, and its purpose is to ensure that civilians are represented in peace negotiations.
To what extent have lives been lost?
In addition to causing the dispersion of millions and the destruction of infrastructure systems, such as healthcare and sanitation, the conflict has permeated numerous regions of the country. Additionally, it has resulted in the loss of thousands of lives. The exact number of fatalities is extremely ambiguous, as testimony from various sources differs.
According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), the death toll of combatants, including military personnel, stood at approximately 16,000 as of April 2024. Experts and ACLED have stated, however, that due to the difficulty in acquiring accurate, real-time data during a conflict of this nature, those figures represent a substantial undercount.
As of the end of August, the United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR, reported in October that between April 15 and the same date, 8,400 civilians were injured and nearly 4,000 were slain in Darfur alone. A January Reuters report cited by the United Nations estimated that between 10,000 and 15,000 people had been slain in El Geneina, Sudan’s West Darfur region, in the previous year.
What is the number of individuals who have been displaced?
Although some evacuation attempts were undertaken during the initial days of the conflict, they predominantly aided non-combatants.
According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), a minimum of 8.2 million individuals out of the 49 million inhabitants of Sudan have been compelled to evacuate their residences since the combat commenced. The majority of the nearly 1.8 million refugees who have fled across the country’s borders have settled in Chad, Egypt, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. Many have been compelled to travel to those locations by foot for days and enduring arduous journeys, or by spending astronomical amounts of money on bus tickets.
There are a minimum of 6.5 million internally displaced individuals dispersed throughout the 18 states of Sudan. South Darfur is home to the greatest number of internally displaced persons (IDPs), with River Nile and East Darfur following suit. Over fifty per cent of these individuals have been forced to flee the state of Khartoum.
Which regions are being impacted the most by the fighting?
The conflict that erupted in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, spread to portions of Darfur, Kordofan, the Blue Nile states, and Merowe, a northern city situated near Egypt and the River Nile. Merowe is notable for its military airport and extensive gold mining.
The war has further weakened the already fragile state of Darfur, which is fatigued by conflict. Masalit tribes, Arab and non-Arab, have clashed for over two decades over scarce land and water resources in that region. Presently, hostilities have acquired an ethnic dimension.
An expanding collection of testimonies and documents has documented incidents in which Arab militants, in conjunction with members of the RSF, allegedly carried out ethnic cleansing-like assaults. The RSF has categorically denied these allegations.
How has the population of Sudan been impacted?
The United Nations has declared that Sudan is presently “undergoing a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions.” The nation is currently confronted with a severe scarcity of critical commodities, including fuel, food, potable water, and medical supplies. As an outcome of the scarcity, prices have exploded.
The UN estimates that roughly half of Sudan’s 49 million inhabitants require humanitarian aid. Food insecurity has reached “catastrophic proportions” for nearly 18 million people, particularly in Khartoum, certain regions of West Darfur, and among the IDP population.
Aid organisations encounter considerable difficulty in delivering humanitarian aid due to obstacles such as restricted entry, security concerns, and logistical complexities. The United Nations commenced food aid distribution to West Darfur in March, marking the first such distribution in several months.
According to Khair, the director of Confluence Advisory, famine has already established itself in Sudan; however, the United Nations, which depends on the SAF for access to the Port of Sudan, the quickest route for maritime assistance delivery, has yet to validate this claim.
“We have come to believe that the approval of the military in Port Sudan is more significant than the plight of the starving people in [West Darfur],” said an anonymous Western aid worker. “[The United Nations] gives precedence to the legal notion of sovereignty over the legitimate notion that all individuals have the right to life.”
In the absence of an official declaration of a famine, emergency aid and financial support from international organisations and the global community are insufficient, as is customary.
How might catastrophe be prevented?
Khair stated that organisations merely donating food and cereals in the short term is insufficient to end famine.
She stated that protection must be taken for the upcoming harvest in September, which follows the agricultural season that begins in May; otherwise, famine will worsen despite international assistance.
“Sudan is and has always been a breadbasket for the region, Africa, and Arab nations such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, which have invested substantial sums of money in Sudan to feed their populations over the past several decades,” she continued.
How else do individuals in Sudan endure hardship?
Malaria, cholera, and measles are among the fatal diseases that have been sweeping through Sudan recently, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Amid the conflict, an estimated 65 per cent of the populace is deprived of healthcare access, and 70 to 80 per cent of institutions in affected areas have ceased operations as a result of supply shortages, air raids, and assaults on healthcare personnel by opposing factions.
In numerous locations, critical infrastructure, including power plants and water treatment facilities, has been severely damaged or entirely obliterated.
Schools are closed in Darfur, preventing millions from accessing a safe environment and receiving an education, according to the United Nations refugee agency. A significant number of children have been subjected to sexual violence and trauma as a result of the growing number of cases involving family separation.
What initiatives have been implemented to bring an end to the conflict?
Multiple initiatives are currently underway to end the conflict in Sudan; however, their ineffectiveness has been attributed to regional tensions among the mediating nations and competing interests among international actors, including Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
A multitude of armistice accords have been established throughout the previous year; however, in each instance, the involved factions have levelled accusations against the other.
It is anticipated that negotiations will commence in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on April 18 between the contending factions. In 2023, the army withdrew from the city after hosting multiple rounds of negotiations, citing the RSF’s ceasefire violations.
At this time, however, there are rumours that Egypt, which has historically supported the SAF, and the UAE, which has sided with the RSF, may be added to the negotiations. Khair stated, “Each negotiated ceasefire failed due to the absence of the two principal regional backers of the warring parties.”
Currently, negotiations are also taking place in Cairo, under the leadership of Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Khair further stated that these are in opposition to the Jeddah talks, which are supported by Saudi Arabia. This internal struggle has the potential to impede the international community’s ability to promote peace collectively.
Additionally, the United States has endeavoured to be at the vanguard of Sudan-related mediation efforts. The designation of Congressman Tom Perriello as a special envoy for Sudan by the United States in February may also precipitate a broader shift in Sudan-related diplomacy.
“US allies in the region, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, have realised that the United States is paying significantly more attention to the situation in Sudan, and they wish to be prepared to align themselves with that,” Khair explained.
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a regional organisation comprised of eight countries encompassing the Horn of Africa, is an additional significant participant in negotiations. By December 2023, IGAD reported that al-Burhan, the army chief, and Hemedti, the leader of the RSF, had both pledged to support the implementation of a ceasefire and engage in political dialogue.
Al-Burhan subsequently revoked Sudan’s IGAD membership in January in retaliation for the invitation of Hemedti to a summit.
To resolve the crisis, the bloc had earlier in 2023 established a quartet committee comprised of Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and South Sudan. The army ultimately abstained from attending the meeting, however, due to allegations that Kenya lacked impartiality.
President Ismail Omar Guelleh of Djibouti is attempting to reassemble al-Burhan to the negotiating table. “Burhan considers all the other IGAD member states, particularly Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia, to be too compromised and too close to Hemedti to be neutral,” Khair explained. “He is one of the few that can say this.”
After months of competing with Saudi Arabia for space in negotiations, IGAD has also nominated Sudan’s Lawrence Korbandy as an envoy to the upcoming Jeddah talks. Korbandy, a native of South Sudan, formerly advised Salva Kiir, the president of his country, on legal matters.
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The UN Security Council also adopted a resolution in early March that demanded a cessation of hostilities throughout the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. The RSF failed to respond to al-Burhan’s demand that it vacate provinces under its control.
A year ago, the African Union (AU) made an additional effort to mediate peace. A political dialogue was initiated among the military, civilian, and social actors of the country to resolve the conflict and form a transitional civilian government.
The AU summit was attended by members of a civilian coalition that had coexisted with the military before the 2021 rebellion, in contrast to the discussions in Jeddah. However, beyond convening meetings, the endeavours of the AU failed to yield significant outcomes.
An additional concern, according to Khair, is the presence of a “mosaic” of armed actors, some of whom are affiliated with the SAF or RSF and who are also fueling the conflict in Sudan but have not been incorporated into peace negotiations. “Their participation in the discussions will be crucial,” she stated.
