- Trump’s campaign fears losing to Harris-Walz momentum
- Strategy: portray Harris-Walz as overly progressive and highlight governance flaws
- Trump struggles to break Harris’s media dominance amid a prolonged honeymoon period
According to those close to the former president, Donald Trump’s campaign is aware that it may lose in November if the race is determined on “vibes” and “energy,” as Kamala Harris continues to ride waves of momentum with her recently announced running partner Tim Walz.
The fear has already begun to cause divisions inside Trumpworld, with some Maga allies criticizing Trump’s political aides for running a campaign that may be too structurally insufficient to establish a ground operation in swing states.
The Trump campaign has devised a strategy to respond. They aim to portray the Harris campaign as the most progressive US ticket of all time, seeking to shift the political focus back to their records in office and away from coverage of Harris’s extraordinary enthusiasm with voters.
The Trump campaign wants to continue attempting to hold Harris accountable in the eyes of voters for the flood of migrants, as well as her role as the “border czar” who allowed migrants to spread across the country to relieve pressure on border states.
That links in with their other approach, which is to launch a “Willie Horton” campaign from the old Republican playbook, implying on social media and in television advertising that Harris was directly responsible for any crimes perpetrated by migrants. Horton, a convicted murderer who committed more crimes while on prison leave, was utilized in a racist attack strategy by George Bush during his 1988 presidential campaign.
For the time being, Walz’s strategy has been to claim that as Minnesota governor, he implemented progressive policies, concentrating on how he backed transgender medical care for children, adopted comprehensive climate change legislation, and enshrined abortion rights in law.
The campaign has also been eager to portray Walz as fabricating his military record – he has vaguely mentioned serving in Iraq despite leaving the military before his unit was deployed – an attack style that Trump’s current co-campaign chief Chris LaCivita used against decorated Vietnam veteran John Kerry in the “Swift Boat” episode.
According to the sources, the decision to focus on Harris and Walz’s governance credentials provides insight into the Trump campaign’s understanding of the importance of avoiding a vibes-based election at all costs. The Trump campaign understands that focusing on national sentiment will not work against Harris’s incredible momentum, which began when she entered the race alongside Biden.
For weeks before Biden finally withdrew, the main concern in the Trump camp was that his departure would give a successor enormous momentum. For this reason, Trump avoided pouring on Biden, even as senior Democrats urged him to get out of the race.
The momentum prediction proved correct, causing significant problems for the Trump campaign as they tried to break into the news cycle. It is the first time since his indictment in 2023 that Trump has largely lost control of the media narrative and, hence, his power to undermine the Harris campaign.
However, it is questionable whether Trump’s attack lines will be effective, at least in the coming weeks, with Harris’s protracted honeymoon period not ending —an essential element because the longer the honeymoon period lasts, the less time Trump has to define Harris negatively.
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According to one observer, the Trump campaign may find August a washout. Walz might still dominate media coverage next week, and Harris will likely enjoy a surge of support at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago the following week.
The week following the convention may also be short in terms of the news cycle as the country prepares for the Labor Day weekend.
Furthermore, the attacks have been less specialized than those against Biden and, in many cases, easily rebuttable by the Harris team.
If questioned on migrant crime, Harris is anticipated to shift to claiming she is an ex-prosecutor running against a convicted criminal, drawing unwanted attention to Trump’s recent conviction in New York for manipulating company records to influence the 2016 election.
And if pressed on the Iraq scenario, Walz may make an even more stinging case regarding Trump’s inability to serve in Vietnam due to bone spurs.
More broadly, Trump’s other attack lines against Harris do not have the same impact as his remarks against Biden. Trump tested out the “Cacklin’ Kamala” nickname to portray her as unserious because of her laugh. Still, lately, he began using “Kamabla” – an indication that he was not satisfied with his earlier choice, though it is unclear what the term implies.
