- Trump likely to win Iowa
- DeSantis and Haley vie for second
- Weather impacts voter turnout
At least a few hundred thousand Republican electors in the Midwestern state of Iowa will have the opportunity to weigh in on their party’s 2024 presidential nominee following months of campaigning.
The field has shrunk significantly in recent months, but one factor has remained constant. Despite his opponents’ best efforts, former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the future of his party.
Hence, the considerable suspense preceding the Iowa caucuses has revolved around snow accumulations and the extent of wind cold, as opposed to the potential victor.
Nonetheless, Monday night’s results will release significant storylines.
Trump’s decisive blow
Donald Trump will emerge victorious in the Iowa caucuses without a significant polling error.
He has an extensive and fervent following among Republican voters in the state and a considerably more sophisticated ground organization than the shoestring team that finished second in 2016 behind Texas Senator Ted Cruz.
The former president and his staff have higher aspirations for the state than a triumph. They aspire to a decisive victory that would hopefully dispel any uncertainty regarding Mr. Trump’s nomination for the Republican nomination at the national convention in July.
If he amass a majority of the vote in Iowa, surpassing 50%, it could severely damage Ron DeSantis’s campaign and impede Nikki Haley’s momentum heading into the second state to vote, New Hampshire.
It may be impossible to deliver a fatal blow, given Iowa’s historical practice of merely narrowing the field rather than crowning the ultimate nominee. However, Mr. Trump essentially campaigns as an incumbent president, denying defeat in 2020.
An esteemed second position
Suppose Mr. Trump’s dominant poll position accurately reflects Iowa Republican voters’ prevailing sentiment. In that case, the state’s actual contest is for the position of second place.
The gravity of this situation was brought into sharp focus during a contentious two-person debate between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley on Wednesday. Should one of these two candidates narrow the gap between the other in the final Iowa results, it has the potential to establish that candidate as the preeminent challenger to Mr. Trump in subsequent contests.
A close conclusion serves no purpose and essentially strengthens the divide-and-conquer strategy that assisted Mr. Trump in securing the nomination in 2016 and would provide him with an easy path to victory in the current election.
There is no assurance that a candidate’s comfortable runner-up finish in Iowa will translate into future success and a chance to surpass the incumbent president. However, a slim possibility is preferable to having no chance at all.
DeSantis’s final stance
Although Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis compete for the second position, their circumstances are dissimilar.
The subsequent state on the Republican agenda, New Hampshire, presents a considerably more favorable electoral environment for Ms. Haley. Backed by the state’s governor, she is gaining support from many college-educated voters and political independents.
Recent polling indicates that she has narrowed Mr. Trump’s lead to near single digits, significantly surpassing the Florida governor.
Conversely, Mr. DeSantis has exhibited limited capacity to establish a rapport with the electorate in New Hampshire. As a result, his campaign is considerably more dependent on a favorable performance in Iowa. In this state, he has established a substantial grassroots infrastructure and secured crucial endorsements from the governor and evangelical community leaders.
If he fails to capitalize on these advantages, his campaign in New Hampshire could collapse. However, his team does not acknowledge this.
“This campaign is constructed for the long haul,” Andrew Romeo, spokesman for the DeSantis campaign, said. “We hope Donald Trump is ready for a long, scrappy campaign.”
Although those are harsh statements, Mr. DeSantis will unlikely have the financial resources and electoral momentum to support them should he fail in Iowa.
An X factor in winter
The Iowa caucus format has historically served as a rigorous evaluation of campaign management prowess and voter enthusiasm, owing to the substantial time investment participants are expected to devote. The combination of extreme cold and icy roadways increases the probability that the candidate with the most devoted supporters will emerge victorious in the caucus.
This individual may be Mr. Trump, whose devoted supporters have been observed enduring various perilous circumstances and spending the night in protracted lines to attend his rallies.
Mr. DeSantis’ appeal to Iowa evangelical voters could alternatively influence.
Potentially to her advantage, Ms. Haley’s college-educated supporters tend to reside in the metropolitan areas of Iowa, where caucus sites are more accessible and roadways may be less congested with ice. On Monday night, Republican voters who staunchly oppose Trump might be more motivated to confront the elements. And according to polls, they may block her path should they do so.
Although Iowa is not unfamiliar with severe winter conditions, the current frigid climate has introduced an element of unpredictability into the caucus night run-up. It has recently elevated the status of meteorological forecasters to that of political commentators.
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Campaigns Brace for Uncertain Turnout
“Any pollster who claims to know the turnout on Monday night due to the historic weather conditions is not telling the truth,” the DeSantis campaign wrote in a memo obtained by CBS News that was addressed to donors and supporters.
Every candidate, excluding Donald Trump, enters Monday night hoping this is true.
Indeed, Asa Hutchinson continues to contend. In the absence of former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, the only other candidates who have garnered sufficient support to register even a minor disturbance in Iowa are Vivek Ramaswamy and Asa Hutchinson.
It is difficult to envision either of them achieving significant success in the current state, much less in any of the states that lie ahead. Nevertheless, they continue to hold out faith for a miracle. They may experience their initial taste of harsh reality on Monday evening.
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