- Potential Cross-Border Threat: Ukraine on High Alert against Wagner Group
- Concerns Over Prigozhin’s Exile to Belarus: Possible Implications for Ukraine
- Ukrainian Military’s Strong Position: Exploiting Weaknesses in Russian Arm
In the aftermath of the brief armed uprising in Russia, the Kyiv government should be vigilant against a cross-border assault by the private militia that played a crucial role in the conflict, including the capture of the eastern city of Bakhmut.
Ukraine is in a strong battlefield position against invading Russian forces, according to a former British Army commander. But the exile of a rebel mercenary leader to Belarus poses a new potential threat.
While Russian leader Vladimir Putin has been “wounded” by the short-lived uprising and his frontline troops have been demoralized, Lord Dannatt advised the Ukrainian government to be vigilant against a cross-border attack by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group.
The old general staff appeared on Sophy Ridge On Sunday as Prigozhin’s private army advanced on Moscow.
Wagner troops played a crucial role in the Ukraine conflict by capturing the city of Bakhmut in the east, but Prigozhin has been increasingly critical of the military leadership, accusing it of incompetence and denying his troops ammunition.
Prigozhin settled with the Kremlin to move to Belarus, which supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Even though Putin accused his former ally of treason and mutiny, charges of armed rebellion were withdrawn against him.
In addition, Moscow stated that it would not prosecute Wagner combatants who participated in the uprising.
Putin’s “primary aim” in releasing Prigozhin and his forces, according to the Kremlin, was “to avoid bloodshed.”
Ukrainians expected the Russian civil war would give their army chances to recapture Russian land.
Lord Dannatt, however, stated, “It appears he has departed the stage to travel to Belarus. But is that the end of Prigozhin and the Wagner Group? The fact that he has traveled to Belarus is, in my opinion, cause for concern.
“What we do not know, and what we will learn in the coming hours and days, is how many of his combatants have gone with him”.
If he has relocated to Belarus and maintained an effective combat force around him, he poses a threat to the Ukrainian flank closest to Kyiv, which is where the conflict began on February 24 of last year.
This issue may be remedied, but I think its effects will last a long time.
“They (Ukraine) must keep a close eye on that flank and ensure they have sufficient maneuver units to repel a renewed attack from the direction of Belarus.”
Concerning the broader conflict, the independent crossbench peer added, “The Ukrainians, I’m confident, have the morale of their opponents in the forefront of their minds; the average Russian soldier’s morale is quite low.
“Because of this, if they can locate some points of weakness along the Russian defensive lines and exploit them with one or two decisive blows, it could have a disproportionate effect on shattering the morale and backbone of the Russian army, resulting in a substantial amount of success.
“Ukraine remains in a strong position against an enemy with low morale and a disjointed command and control structure at this time, whose political leader has undoubtedly been wounded by past events.”
However, he cautioned, “I believe we must keep a close eye on Prigozhin and his Wagner forces. In addition, they constitute a potential threat from Belarus to Kyiv. If I were the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, I would closely monitor this front.”
Christopher Steele, a former MI6 officer, told that the fleeting uprising had harmed the Russian leader.
“What’s changed, according to him, is that Vladimir Putin has lost authority and legitimacy within Russia and has been challenged, though he’s managed to escape for the time being.”
Putin and his associates must be worried by yesterday’s events in Russia and the swift escalation.
Chief Secretary of the Treasury John Glen stated on the Ridge program, “The situation in Russia is clearly very unstable. But it is fundamentally an internal matter”.
We closely follow the issue but will not intervene.
