- Putin escalates Ukraine aggression
- Intense aerial assaults intensify
- Evolving strategies, diverse targets
Russia’s Vladimir Putin has threatened to escalate aggression against Ukraine, and now Kiev is beginning to grasp the seriousness of this threat.
President Volodymyr Zelensky declared Tuesday night that Russia has launched 500 missiles and UAVs against Ukraine in five days.
Since then, at least 32 people have been killed in the capital of Ukraine. Thirty of them fell victim to a single attack on December 29th, marking one of the most massive aerial assaults of the conflict to date.
It is not confined to the capital alone. Nearly sixty individuals have lost their lives across the nation, with strikes affecting Kharkiv in the northeast, Zaporizhzhia in the south, Odessa on the southern coast, and Lviv in the far west.
Russia has been bombing Ukraine since the invasion, but this latest round is fatal.
What does this latest stage of the conflict imply for Ukraine? Moreover, what strategy is Russia employing in its renewed aerial assault?
Altering strategies
This is the most intense assault against Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion began.
And it is not merely the magnitude of the attacks that differs; it is the strategies employed.
The assault in Kyiv on January 2 lasted for six hours. A barrage of Russian drones was directed at the capital. The Ukrainian air force reported that all 35 of them were shot down.
However, missile attacks using various weapons were launched to penetrate the city’s defences.
Since months ago, missiles have impacted the very core of Kiev within the past five days.
They are perpetually seeking a more effective way to breach our air defense systems and launch an assault,” Oleksandr Musiyenko of the Centre for Military Legal Research in Ukraine stated.
This necessitates the utilization of various missile types—namely hypersonic, cruise, and ballistic—along with their discharge along distinct routes. These missiles can alter course in the air over Ukraine, further complicating air defense efforts.
Russia is diversifying its focus as well. On December 29, its weapons targeted cities nationwide; on January 2, they targeted Kiev and Kharkiv.
“The Russians endeavored to concentrate their offensive capabilities… and focus on no more than one or two cities,” stated Mr. Musiyenko.
Additionally, Russia’s preparations for these attacks are evolving. The Ukrainian intelligence agency, the SBU, disclosed on Tuesday that it had located and disabled “two robotic online surveillance cameras” that, according to the SBU, were compromised by Russia to survey targets and observe Kyiv’s defenses.
It is uncertain how long Russia will continue these massive strikes.
According to Ukrainian media analysis, the assault on December 29 alone cost $1.073.173 billion (£1.273 billion). While Forbes magazine estimates that the attack on January 2 cost an additional $620 million (£491 million).
Before winter, Ukraine harbored concerns that Russia was amassing weaponry in preparation for major offensives.
Le Monde’s analysis cites Ukrainian officials as saying that Russia still possesses approximately 1,000 ballistic or cruise missiles in stockpile and has the capacity to produce an additional 100 per month, including Kalibrs and Kh-101s.
Mr. Musiyenko, however, asserts that Ukraine has been preparing as well.
Ukraine engages incoming drones with Gepard anti-aircraft weapons manufactured in Germany, while cruise missiles are countered with Buk systems from the Soviet era and hypersonic Kinzhal missiles with Patriots manufactured in the United States.
“We divided our systems in preparation for various types of threats,” he explains, despite the fact that this necessitates ammunition and maintenance reliance on the West. “So of course it’s very important for us to get this support.”
This is currently a crucial moment for Kiev.
Given the EU’s inability to deliver even half of the one million artillery shells it pledged by the end of 2023 and the US aid embroiled in political infighting, it is possible that Russia is commencing these massive attacks at a time when Ukraine’s supplies are running low.
