According to a military analyst, Ukraine is rumored to be plotting another counteroffensive, one that could determine the war’s outcome, following its dramatic victories near Kharkiv and Kherson.
According to a military analyst, Ukraine has a fair possibility of liberating all of its lands by the end of 2023, except Crimea.
According to retired military intelligence officer Philip Ingram, Severodonetsk, Melitopol, and possibly Mariupol could be liberated if Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s forces continue their counteroffensive success.
We reach the end of a year in which Vladimir Putin’s Russia invaded its neighbor, creating unfathomable destruction and bringing about the extraordinary return of war in Europe.
In the months following the February 24 assault that brought Kremlin soldiers within striking distance of Kyiv, Ukrainian defenders have recaptured more than half of the territory captured by Russia since the start of the war.
President Zelenskyy has stated that his army will eventually liberate all of Ukraine’s land, including the seized regions of Donbas and Crimea since 2014.
Experts remain divided as to whether this will ultimately be achievable, but Ukraine’s military has again proved their courage and resolve on the battlefield.
In the early days of the conflict, a tiny number of troops held out for 82 days against insurmountable odds to defend the port city of Mariupol, giving other defense groups vital time to recover and acquire Western weapons.
Recent surprising counterattacks in the east and south have pushed Russian forces from Kharkiv and Kherson into retreat.
So, what might transpire next year?
Mr. Ingram, a former intelligence officer, believes that everything will depend on what Ukraine does in the coming weeks as it attempts to progress once more.
He told, “If their next counteroffensive is as effective as the two they’ve already conducted – and I see no reason why it shouldn’t be – there’s a very good chance they’ll have reclaimed all the territory in mainland Ukraine by the end of the year.
“Therefore, I anticipate further Ukrainian counteroffensives and victories in 2023.
“At that point, we will likely examine the possibility of retake operations for Crimea,”
Further Ukrainian advances, according to Mr. Ingram, would lead to a rise in dissension within Russia, putting President Putin’s leadership at risk.
He stated that the recapture of Mariupol will have a significant psychological impact.
However, not all experts concur with this prognosis for Ukraine’s destiny during the following year.
The availability of Western armaments is not inexhaustible
Air Vice-Marshal Retired Sean Bell suggested that the West can only help Ukraine for a limited time, as military supplies diminish and the willpower of some nations may erode due to rising oil prices at home.
“There is not an inexhaustible supply of weaponry,” he told, referring to the number of guns delivered.
It is quite unlikely that the West will be able to support Ukraine militarily for more than a year.
He stated that while President Zelenskyy openly calls for the repatriation of all land, he may be speaking pragmatically about the future behind closed doors.
“This, I believe, is where tremendous statesmanship is displayed, because if winning is capturing more land, then Putin has won.
“If Putin’s geopolitical objectives were to impede NATO expansion, he has failed.
“If the purpose was to restore Russia’s greatness, it failed. If the goal was to produce a more robust economy, it has failed.
From a grand strategic perspective, it is extremely difficult to envision this invasion as anything other than an unmitigated disaster regardless of the criteria chosen.
It is possible, he continued, that President Zelenskyy will blame the West for pushing his hand, but will privately realize that this is the only option to prevent more loss of life.
