- Ukrainian forces shift focus to peace, aiming for fair terms
- Successful Kursk counter-offensive challenges Russian advances
- Ukraine uses captured Russian soldiers as leverage in negotiations
“Every war ends with diplomacy. It is not the warriors in the trenches that determine when.”
Arni joined the Ukrainian army in 2022 to ensure his country’s survival. When we meet again 30 months later, he describes a new motivation.
“Peace.”
“No one likes war, and we want to end it,” he says, leaning against his camouflaged pick-up truck.
The troops we met near Russia’s border want the invasion to conclude on fair terms.
That is not to imply that survival isn’t a primary motivator; it is, but they appear to be aiming for a finish line.
For Ukraine, our people, we’ll stand until the end,” declares Arni.
Until 6 August, Ukraine’s main goal was liberation. The total repelling of Russian forces to its boundaries since before Russia’s first invasion in 2014.
Moscow has been degrading Ukrainian land for the past year and a half, albeit at a slow pace.
Then came the “all in” poker play, which stunned everyone except the battle-hardened Ukrainian soldiers who carried it out: a counter-offensive against Russia’s Kursk area.
“It was undeniably successful and daring,” says Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre, a think group.
Kyiv can’t get enough of its attack, with endless photos of troops distributing aid while tearing down Russian flags.
It also changes the narrative,” says Alina Frolova, a security specialist and former deputy defence minister in Ukraine. “A situation where we’re losing territory step by step is not a good one.”Ukraine’s strategic posture has shifted.
Despite parallels to Russia’s original invasion, Kyiv insists it does not intend to occupy.
So what is the goal? Well, there is more than one.
Buffer Zone
“This attack was partly carried out so the city of Sumy was better protected,” argues Serhii Kuzan, who believes it is frequently overlooked that the border is still a front line.
Since the beginning of the summer, President Volodymyr Zelensky claims that the Kursk region alone has launched almost 2,000 strikes on the Sumy region, including 250 glide bombs.
For months, it was feared that Russian troops were ready to launch their cross-border offensive, and Serhii feels that pushing them back will make defending Ukraine simpler in general.
“The [now-captured] Russian city of Sudzha sits on a dominating height. We control the approach roads, so the Russians are already at a disadvantage.”
While Russia has been forced to respond to Ukraine on the battlefield, its supply lines have also been targeted. Key routes have been taken, and a strategically significant bridge has been demolished.
Which brings us to:
Redeployment of Russian soldiers.
“The main purpose of this offensive into Kursk is to divert Russia’s attention from its occupied territories in Ukraine,” says Ivan Stupak, who worked for Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) from 2004 to 2015.
The good news for Ukraine is that this is happening. The bad news is that Russian advances continue, particularly towards Pokrovsk.
According to Ivan, the Russian army has been redeploying troops from many places, including the Kherson, Kharkiv, and Donetsk regions. He believes approximately 10,000 personnel are being diverted, primarily from other parts of Russia.
‘Exchange fund’
This is how President Zelensky described Ukraine’s stockpile of captured Russian soldiers.
Historically, when Ukraine gains momentum, it captures more and, as a result, negotiates its release more readily.
The Kursk attack has not been an exception. According to Kyiv, hundreds of Russian troops were imprisoned. Several people were seen surrendering in drone footage and being transported back to Ukraine wearing tape blindfolds.
According to Serhii Kuzan, Moscow has offered to initiate negotiations to exchange prisoners of war.
It is no longer us who are soliciting the backing of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to request that Russia hand up our prisoners of war.
Pressure
This is a significant portion of it for Kyiv.
On a civilian level, you have the terror and outrage felt in the Kursk region as a result of the brutal Ukrainian assault on their houses.
There were widespread evacuations, calls for assistance, and criticism of various authorities for failing to prevent the attack.
On a political level, Russian President Vladimir Putin was publicly assessing events in Moscow while receiving briefings from his security officials.
Of course, there is a military level.
Alina Frolova concludes that the impact of this Ukrainian incursion could be significant. That is why deploying highly professional troops was the correct decision.
Future negotiating chips
If Ukraine does not intend to maintain its gained Russian territory indefinitely but can hold out long enough, it wants to use it to secure the release of its territories.
But there’s a major “if”.
With its overwhelming bulk, Russia has historically benefited from slow fighting. Misdirection and surprise have frequently worked for Ukraine.
“In a symmetric war, we have no chances with Russia,” says Alina Frovola. “We need to make asymmetrical actions”.
Slowing gains in the Kursk region may force Kyiv to make painful decisions.
Serhii Kuzan contends that there are benefits as long as mobility is available.
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He explains that switching forward units with reserves often involves an advance pace of 1-3 km daily. “In Ukraine’s Donbas region, the Russians advance at an average rate of 400 meters.
“Our pace in the Kursk region is five times faster than a 100,000-strong army!”
However, the challenge for Kyiv is that Russians continue to operate in Ukraine.
However, expect Ukraine to continue its Russian offensive for a while.
It is now committed.
So what about Vladimir Putin?
Russia’s president originally described the offensive as a “terrorist attack” and a “provocation,” but in the days since, he has rarely mentioned it in public.
This is even though Russia’s invasion fits into his narrative of a defensive battle to protect his people.
Perhaps Putin does not want the anxiety felt by people in the Kursk region to spread, or his military appears to be out of control.
Furthermore, as with the Kursk submarine accident and failed coup of last year, Vladimir Putin does not always act promptly to reclaim the initiative.
Ukraine will hope he isn’t this time because he can’t.
