All three SNP leadership candidates say Scotland will be sovereign in five years if they win.
In a debate, Ash Regan, Humza Yousaf, and Kate Forbes were speaking as they confronted each other.
Mr. Yousaf responded to an audience member’s question by predicting independence by 2028.
Ms. Regan and Ms. Forbes expressed identical beliefs.
After eight years as SNP head and Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon unexpectedly resigned, sparking the leadership contest.
Recent polls indicate that support for independence is roughly equivalent to when Ms. Sturgeon succeeded Alex Salmond following the 2014 referendum, in which Scottish voters rejected independence by a margin of 55% to 45%.
This is despite the turmoil in British politics in recent years, which resulted in the country leaving the EU despite Scotland voting overwhelmingly in favor of remaining and Boris Johnson’s often tumultuous tenure as prime minister.
The Supreme Court has also ruled that the Scottish Parliament lacks the authority to hold a referendum without the consent of the United Kingdom government, which has made it abundantly plain that it has no intention of granting formal consent via a Section 30 order.
Mr. Yousaf, the health secretary who is the bookie’s favorite to win the contest and is widely viewed as being Ms. Sturgeon’s preferred candidate, told the Debate Night Special that he believed he could build sustained majority support for independence that would see those political obstacles disappear.
He added, “I would like to be the one to deliver independence. But to do so, you must cease discussing the process and start discussing policy.
“We must inspire individuals with a vision of independence. People are not inspired by Section 30s and de facto referendums, so we must refrain from focusing on them excessively.
Ms. Forbes, the finance secretary who is presently viewed as Mr. Yousaf’s closest challenger for the leadership, stated that she believed the dial could be shifted in favor of independence by addressing the concerns of the people.
Using the example of the cost of living crisis, she stated, “People cannot afford next month’s energy bill in a country that is rich in oil, gas, and renewable energy.” It does not make sense because decisions are made far away from those who are most impacted.
“I believe we should use every democratic opportunity to campaign for and make the case for independence. But in a manner that respects the reasons why some individuals may not be persuaded.”
In the meantime, Ms. Regan outlined her plans for what she refers to as a Voter Empowerment Mechanism, which “simply uses the ballot box to allow the people of Scotland to express their readiness for independence.”
She added, “You can utilize each election. Therefore, you could begin with the next election, followed by the Scottish election. And it remains in the background until the Scottish people determine when they are ready for independence.”
Ms. Regan resigned as the country’s minister of community safety over the government’s controversial gender recognition plans and is regarded as the underdog in the race.
In the case of trans rapist Isla Bryson, who was initially sent to a women’s prison, she clashed with Mr. Yousaf, who is the only one of the three to say he would challenge the UK government’s block on legislation in court.
Ms. Regan asked Mr. Yousaf why he had not listened to concerns about cases like Bryson’s before reforms were implemented and whether he viewed Bryson as a man or a woman. In response, Mr. Yousaf stated, “Isla Bryson should not be in a women’s prison.
Isla Bryson is a rapist who is trying to scam the system.
The candidates were also asked about NHS waiting lists – one audience member said her spouse has chronic health problems and is facing a six-year wait – the state of Scotland’s education, and the government’s controversial Deposit Return Scheme.
Ms. Regan and Ms. Forbes have both stated that they will suspend the scheme, whose implementation has been criticized. While Mr. Yousaf has pledged to exempt small businesses such as craft breweries.
Ms. Regan stated, “We cannot place excessive burdens on small enterprises. We need to reevaluate this, and we need to include small businesses in the conversation about where changes are necessary. So we can get it right and then implement it.”
Ms. Forbes also stated that small enterprises require “a little breathing room.”
Mr. Yousaf stated that he would not disparage Lorna Slater, the Scottish Green minister responsible for introducing the initiative to increase the recycling of single-use beverage containers by adding 20 pence to the price, which is then refunded when the consumer returns the container.
Small businesses should be excluded for the first year, he said, but he added, “I don’t see the point in pausing the scheme when the Coca-Colas and Pepsis of the world are already participating in approximately 40 DRS schemes.” We cannot absolve them of responsibility.”
This debate saw less sniping and more agreement on what the SNP in government has done badly.
None of them are pleased with the present plans for a deposit return scheme. And all three have pledged to modify it in response to harsh criticism from certain businesses.
Kate Forbes opposed the proposed prohibition on alcohol advertising and deemed NHS wait times “unacceptable.”
The current health secretary, Humza Yousaf, had to apologize for a patient’s experience and give a “thumbs up” for failings to deliver new ferries on time and within budget.
Ash Regan, who resigned from the Scottish government over gender reform. Also demanded a reevaluation of the SNP’s power-sharing agreement with the Greens.
All three candidates have served for years in the Scottish administration. Although Ash Regan resigned and Kate Forbes was on maternity leave, they all share responsibility for its success.
A debate audience member calling them out on this was one of my favorite moments. Contending that it was “ridiculous” that they had not done more to challenge errors before this point.
Monday marked the beginning of the single transferable vote-based SNP leadership election, with the winner being proclaimed on March 27.
“I had no idea,” SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn said. “The last time I heard it was around 100,000.” The SNP has refused to confirm the precise number of party members who will be eligible to vote.
The Electoral Commission estimated 104,000 SNP members in 2021, while the SNP predicted 125,000.
The SNP has only provided the Southampton-based polling firm Mi-Voice with the identities of 78,000 members for the leadership vote.
In the past four years, the party may have lost nearly 50,000 members if this is accurate. The newspaper also reported that Mi-Voice anticipated approximately 54,000 members to cast a ballot.
Prof. Sir John Curtice, a polling expert, has stated that Mr. Yousaf appears to be the most popular of the three candidates among SNP members who will choose the new leader, followed by Ms. Forbes and Ms. Regan.
Sir John noted that SNP voters and the broader public seem to prefer Ms. Forbes.
He added that it “appears there is much at stake”. And that “maybe everything will depend on the unknown second choices of Ms. Regan’s supporters.”
After a Scottish Parliament poll on March 28, the SNP leadership winner will become first minister on March 29.
