According to a think tank, Tory leadership candidate Liz Truss would need to raise taxes or make cuts elsewhere to meet her defense spending pledges.
The Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) estimated in a report that her pledge to spend 3% of national income on defense by 2030 would cost an additional £157bn.
It was stated that this would be the largest growth since the 1950s.
It added that little effort has been made to prepare the public for the “sacrifices” required to meet it.
The United Kingdom spends just over 2% of its annual budget on defense. Boris Johnson, the departing prime minister, argues that 2.3% includes support for Ukraine.
The 2020 spending review increased defense spending by £16 billion over four years.
Foreign Secretary Ms. Truss leads Rishi Sunak in the polls for the Tory leadership, with the winner to be announced on Monday.
Rusi calculates in its report that, taking inflation into account, she would need to increase defense spending by 60% in real terms to meet her spending pledge if she wins the election.
Prof. Malcolm Chalmers wrote that funding this through taxes would require an increase in income tax of 5 pence per pound or an increase in the standard VAT rate from 20% to 25%.
Alternativamente, he stated that funding the increase through savings would necessitate “significant” reductions in public services or other departments.
Given the “difficulties involved” in finding sufficient savings elsewhere, he noted that increasing taxes was the more likely of the two options.
In contrast to increases in spending on the NHS and social care, there had been “very little effort to prepare the British public for the sacrifices that will be required for a comparable increase in defense spending,” he said.
According to his estimation, Ms. Truss would likely need to increase troop levels by 25-30% to meet the 3% target by 2025. Currently, troop levels are projected to decrease to 72,500 by 2025.
To ensure that the additional funds are not “eaten up by increased inefficiency,” the report states that industrial capacities must be increased.
It cautioned that more British pilots, nuclear engineers, planes, and shipyards would be required if spending is to climb sufficiently to satisfy the commitment by the end of the decade.
Due to the UK’s “very modest industrial sector,” the government may need to purchase additional equipment from abroad to achieve the deadline.
Ms. Truss has stated that she will fulfill her defense commitment by deploying a new submarine fleet and increasing investments in cyber and space technology.
She has also committed to evaluating the strength of the armed forces and updating the UK’s foreign policy review from the previous year with a fresh emphasis on Russia and China.
She has promised approximately £30 billion in tax cuts if elected and ruled out the introduction of new levies if she reaches Downing Street.
