- 13 prisoners, including Navalny’s associates, were released
- Swap negotiations began shortly after Biden’s presidency
- Navalny died just as his release seemed imminent
On Thursday evening, a group of associates of late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny gathered at Cologne airport to await the arrival of a plane from Ankara. On board were 13 persons who had been imprisoned in Russian jails until that morning, including three people who had worked as Navalny’s regional coordinators in several Russian cities and had been detained for “extremism.”
After a trade in Turkey, they were released, along with Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and two other Americans returning home on a separate plane.
It was a joyful moment for the 13 when they disembarked from their plane in Cologne. But there was also an undercurrent of longing and rage for one guy who was not on the plane: Navalny. After all, the terms of this agreement were designed with him in mind, and just as his liberation looked within reach, he died – or was murdered – in prison.
With the exchange completed, information can now be published that illustrates how close a swap along similar lines, including Navalny, appeared to be in February, following months of careful planning and alleged Kremlin permission.
The Wall Street Journal’s extensive investigation into the behind-the-scenes negotiations over the exchange revealed that it began with a conference in Geneva between Russian and US leaders shortly after Joe Biden became president, much before Gershkovich’s detention. Vladimir Putin proposed a dedicated route to deal with prisoner swaps, echoing a Cold War tradition. Biden concurred. Eventually, Russia released basketball player Brittney Griner, who had been apprehended at a Moscow airport with a small amount of hash oil in what appeared to be a deliberate attempt to kidnap an American. She was swapped for Viktor Bout, one of the world’s most known arms dealers, who was in US custody.
Moscow then focused on Vadim Krasikov, an assassin who traveled to Germany on a passport using the name Vadim Sokolov and murdered a Chechen expatriate in a park in 2019. He was apprehended while removing his wig and attempting to flee the area. The Kremlin denied any link, and the assassin refused to speak during interrogation. Christo Grozev, a journalist, solved the case by identifying Krasikov as a member of the Russian security service’s special squad.
Grozev built a name for himself chasing out Russian spies and assassins, and he became close to Navalny after discovering the FSB poisoning squad that had been following the politician for months before poisoning him with novichok in 2020. Following the attack, Navalny was evacuated to Germany to heal before returning to Russia in early 2021. He was promptly seized and imprisoned.
Grozev became one of the leading advocates for including Navalny in a possible prisoner swap, believing that Navalny could hold the key to convincing Germany that it was worthwhile to give up Krasikov, especially given the possibility that a free Navalny would galvanize the fractured Russian opposition.
There were other problems to consider, but on the other side of the equation was Navalny, who had a legitimate potential to play a role in Russian politics in the coming years, if not months.
He began probing the concept with Russian connections eager to act as mediators for a potential swap. Still, he ran into a brick wall whenever the name Navalny was mentioned. “I worked alongside at least two former security officials. They were strategically positioned to be one handshake away from Putin. And they all wanted to earn that credit, but Alexei’s name was a source of anxiety for both of them,” Grozev explained.
Grozev then asked Roger Carstens, the US special presidential envoy for hostage negotiations, whether he might try to persuade Russian businessman Roman Abramovich to raise the problem with Putin, the Journal stated. At the start of the war, Abramovich was involved in informal conversations with Ukraine about a possible peace accord and talks with Kyiv about prisoner-of-war swaps, and he was already seen as a reliable route to Putin. According to the newspaper, Carstens brought up the subject with Abramovich while both men were in Israel following the attacks on October 7.
Abramovich initially stated that Putin would not accept and then discouraged Carstens from asking him to forward the message. Still, Carstens was highly committed to this cause and idea and knew no one else would ask this question, so he asked him to. A few days later, Abramovich stated that, surprisingly, he answered yes, according to Grozev.
A source in Moscow familiar with the negotiations revealed that Putin authorized the arrangement in principle in the autumn. The Germans didn’t want to give up Krasikov, but there was a world-famous person, Navalny, who was well-known in Germany. This was something they could sell, and it was a happy convergence of circumstances: Putin gets Krasikov, the Germans get Navalny, and the Americans get the Americans back, according to the source.
With the green light, the components started to glide into position. Calls were made to allies in Slovenia and Norway to get an agreement for Russian operatives detained there to be included in the swap. The expansion of the transaction was intended to make the concept of releasing Krasikov more appealing to Berlin. It must always be a large enough package so that every country would avoid incurring a specific domestic political risk. Grozev explained that it has to be hazy.
The Wall Street Journal investigation revealed that the conversations were complicated and tense, with several actors in Washington, Berlin, and Moscow. Ella Milman, Gershkovich’s mother, played a significant role in keeping the jailed reporter in the public eye. In January, she flew to Davos for a meeting with Wolfgang Schmidt, the chief of staff of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. “You have the key,” she informed him. Schmidt offered to assist, and the same day, Scholz and Biden spoke on the phone. “For you, I will do this,” Scholz later told Biden, according to the Journal.
Grozev explained that eventually, an eight-for-eight bargain came into view. It would have included Navalny, Gershkovich, and former US Marine Paul Whelan among those released by Russia and a similar number of Russians as seen returning to Moscow this week.
Once everything was in place, Abramovich returned to Putin for final approval, which was positive again. “At an early stage, he gave an agreement in principle, and then at the final stage, when it was all ready, he also approved it,” according to a Russian source.
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Then came some shocking news. The 47-year-old died of mysterious circumstances at the remote Arctic correctional colony where he was confined. “I received confirmation that the negotiations were in their final stages on the evening of February 15,” Navalny associate Maria Pevchikh revealed earlier this year. “On February 16, Alexei was killed.”
In the months following Navalny’s death, a new arrangement gradually emerged, involving more Russian opposition figures and regaining German support. The trade that occurred on Thursday was the culmination of months of painstaking negotiation in multiple capitals.
Grozev was in Cologne to greet the jet as it arrived from Ankara. He claimed that following Navalny’s death, it was difficult to determine whether the trade, which practically rewards Putin’s hostage-taking program, was a good one. “With Navalny gone, I find it harder to evaluate where the balance is now,” he remarked.
