In a rare public address today, Sir Jeremy Fleming, the chief of GCHQ, will assert that the Ukrainian armed forces are “changing the tide” on both the physical battlefield and in cyberspace.
Russia is running out of weaponry for its war in Ukraine, and the costs to the Kremlin in terms of killed soldiers and destroyed equipment are “staggering,” according to the head of British intelligence.
In a rare public address today, Sir Jeremy Fleming, the chief of GCHQ, will assert that the Ukrainian armed forces are “changing the tide” on both the physical battlefield and in cyberspace.
The chief intelligence officer will also discuss China, the primary emphasis of his remarks.
He will assert that Beijing’s efforts to exploit space and online technology pose a “great threat” to all nations.
Sir Jeremy will raise concerns about the possibility of the Chinese government attacking the satellites of adversaries during armed conflict, disabling a critical domain utilized by the military for weapon launch and communication. There is concern that the technology could also be used to track individuals.
He will also assert that the Chinese Communist Party has “learned the lessons” from Russia’s war in Ukraine, for which the UK and its allies have imposed economic sanctions on the Russian Federation.
Sir Jeremy will outline how Beijing may employ digital currency to track transactions and shield its economy from penalties similar to those imposed on Vladimir Putin’s administration.
Western allies are keeping a tight eye on China out of concern that President Xi Jinping may be contemplating an invasion of Taiwan, utilizing the lessons learned from Russia’s attack on Ukraine to enhance its defenses against a Western response.
In a speech at London’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the director of GCHQ will discuss the conflict in Ukraine.
After failing to capture Kyiv in the opening days of the war and failing to make the gains he had hoped for in the east, he will characterize Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision-making as “flawed.”
Sir Jeremy will warn, according to excerpts of his address posted on Monday evening, that “a high-stakes approach is leading to strategic errors in judgment.”
“Their progress is being undone. The human and material consequences to Russia are tremendous. We are aware, as are the Russian commanders on the ground, that their supplies and weapons are dwindling.
“The Russian military is weary. The use of prisoners as reinforcements and the subsequent mobilization of tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts indicate a dire scenario.
“Realizing that they can no longer travel, they attempt to escape the draught. They are aware that their access to modern technologies and outside influences will be severely limited. And they are experiencing the full depth of the terrible human cost of his chosen conflict.”
The address will focus mostly on China and the essential role of Western allies remaining in the quest for technical superiority.
The head of GCHQ will underline the paradox that Beijing’s “great power paired with fear is leading China to take steps that pose a significant threat to us.”
Sir Jeremy will use the unusual analogy of the 1998 romantic comedy starring Gwyneth Paltrow in which a seemingly insignificant event – catching a train before the door slides shut or missing it – has enormous repercussions when discussing the immense significance and impact of emerging technologies on our daily lives.
Given the contrast in principles between democratic and authoritarian governments, the CIA director will emphasize the importance of providing Western partners with technical options independent of China.
“At GCHQ, it is both our privilege and our responsibility to witness history’s sliding-door moments,” he will add.
“This appears to be one of those times. What we as a community do next will determine our future technological strategic advantage. I’m certain that we can turn the tide in our collective favor if we work together.”
In highlighting the risks of inaction, he will accuse the Chinese government of utilizing its financial and scientific influence to exploit critical technology like satellite systems and digital currencies to expand its sphere of influence and strengthen its grip on power at home.
He will speak specifically on the BeiDou satellite system, which the Chinese government has compelled Chinese residents and enterprises to embrace and has exported abroad.
Sir Jeremy will proclaim: “Many believe China is constructing a formidable anti-satellite capability, with the doctrine of denying other nations access to space in the event of a conflict. There are also concerns that the technology could be used to track individuals.
He will also discuss digital currencies issued by central banks that permit China to control user transactions.
In addition, the head of GCHQ will discuss how a centralized digital currency could “allow China to partially circumvent the international sanctions now imposed on Putin’s administration in Russia.”
