In four occupied regions of Ukraine, officials backed by Russia are holding self-proclaimed referendums on joining Russia.
These so-called elections, which Ukraine and the West have denounced as fraudulent and a sham, are taking place over the course of five days in four frontline districts, two in the east and two in the south.
An annexation might prompt Russia to assert that its territory is being attacked by Western-supplied weapons to Ukraine.
This could exacerbate the conflict.
Why is this happening now?
Seven months after the beginning of the Russian invasion, Vladimir Putin is on the defensive. Ukraine’s counteroffensive has reclaimed large portions of territory captured during the 24 February assault.
A vote on annexation is one of three measures the Kremlin has taken to reset the war.
By annexing an additional 15% of sovereign Ukraine, Russia will be able to assert that its territory is under attack by weaponry supplied to Ukraine by NATO and other Western nations. By bringing up 300,000 additional troops, it can defend a 1,000-kilometer front line (620 miles). During mobilization, the Kremlin also criminalized desertion, surrender, and absence without leave.
If the notion of the Russian leader annexing territory seems familiar, it is. When he ordered soldiers to capture Crimea in 2014, he followed up with a vote that the international community regarded as illegitimate.
This most recent incident has also been branded as unlawful by numerous Western nations, including the international monitoring organization OSCE, and Russian media outlets have already stated that a “Yes” vote is unquestionable.
It spans five days in Russia’s two proxy regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in the east, as well as in seized portions of Kherson and Zaporizhia in the south.
Why are these elections a sham?
We have already witnessed Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. While the Kremlin claimed 96.7% support, a leaked study from Russia’s Human Rights Council indicated that only about 30% of eligible voters participated and less than half supported annexation.
Even though barely a shot was fired in Crimea, voting is scheduled to take place amid the current conflict.
The four affected zones are either partially or entirely occupied.
In the south, the city of Kherson is currently unsafe, as Russian troops struggle to halt a large Ukrainian counteroffensive. The major administration building was struck by multiple missiles only a week ago.
Despite the impossibility of a secure vote, officials speak of registering 750,000 people and incorporating captured portions of another Ukrainian province, Mykolayiv, into the annexed area.
The Russian media stated that election officials would distribute portable vote boxes door-to-door from Friday until Monday.
Officials will only open polling locations on the fifth day, September 27, citing security concerns.
On that day, hundreds of polling locations are expected to open, and voters will be able to cast ballots in regions other than their own, with refugees eligible to vote in some regions of Russia.
The capital of Zaporizhzhia is still firmly in Ukrainian control, thus any vote to annex that territory makes little sense.
Donetsk in the east is only 60% occupied by the Russians and is in the center of the battle.
Russia controls the majority of the northeastern city of Luhansk, despite its recent retreat. Russian news agencies showed posters with the slogan “Russia is the future” being distributed.
A significant portion of the pre-war population has escaped the battle. Denis Pushilin, the head of Russia’s proxy authority in Donetsk, ordered a mass evacuation day before the attack.
Leaders backed by Russia had been eager to have elections for several months, but the decision to hold the election was made only three days in advance, which reeks of desperation.
There will be no impartial observers present. The majority of voting will take place online, although officials have promised increased security at polling booths.
What will differ?
The adviser to the Ukrainian defense minister, Yuriy Sak, told that the so-called referendums were doomed. We are observing that all residents are in favor of returning to Ukraine, which explains why there is so much resistance from guerrilla movements in these districts.
In any case, Kiev asserts that nothing will change and that its soldiers will continue to advance toward the areas’ liberation.
Alexander Baunov, a Russian analyst, says that redefining the occupied territories as Russian territory is unlikely to deter the Ukrainian military, but it does send a message of intent to the civilians under their authority. And the Kremlin hopes that the West will refuse to fire its weapons on terrain that Moscow has declared to be Russian.
Putin has expressed alarmingly that he will use all available tools “to safeguard Russia.” In case there was any misunderstanding, Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia’s security council, clarified that nuclear weapons might potentially be deployed to defend annexed territory.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken referred to a “risk escalation” but restated Washington’s stance that no Russian claim to Ukrainian territory could abrogate Ukraine’s right to self-defense.
Even Turkey, which has attempted to serve as a mediator, has condemned the vote as fraudulent.
