- Russia conquered Vuhledar after 18-month battle
- Ukrainian counteroffensive stalled but defences hold
- Ukraine boosting defence industry, drones, and artillery
Russia conquered Vuhledar on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border this week after an 18-month battle for the town.
Vuhledar is located on elevated land near a railway line that carries supplies from Russian-occupied Crimea. Its occupation deprives Ukrainian forces of the ability to disrupt Russian supply routes.
They also give Russia control of the nearby H-15 highway, which might help them “eliminate the wide Ukrainian salient in western Donetsk Oblast,” according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.
During a counteroffensive last year, Ukraine pushed Russian troops back up to 7.5 kilometres (5 miles) in a crescent form. That gain may now be jeopardized. Following the loss of Vuhledar, Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii ordered Donetsk’s defences to be strengthened.
The Russian seizure of Vuhledar will not radically change the operational situation in western Donetsk Oblast, however, and Russian forces will likely struggle to achieve their operational objectives,” according to the International Security Service.
Russia has struggled to make significant gains on the eastern front.
Since February, when it conquered Avdiivka, it has advanced 35km (22 miles) west towards Pokrovsk. Still, Syrskii claims Ukraine’s counter-invasion of Kursk in August has halted that advance 10km (6 miles) short of Pokrovsk.
Russian soldiers have been shooting for the town of Chasiv Yar, located some 50 kilometres (30 miles) northeast of the Pokrovsk frontline, all summer but have only managed to seize an outlying eastern part.
Russian forces have attempted to occupy Siversk, located 40 kilometres (25 miles) northeast of Chasiv Yar, but have been unsuccessful.
On September 26, about 100 kilometres (62 miles) north of Siversk, in Kharkiv, Russia launched a battalion-sized assault in the direction of Kupyansk with 50 armoured vehicles and tanks. Ukraine resisted it, damaging or destroying 40 cars.
While Ukrainian defences have stood firm against superior Russian weaponry, Russian forces have pushed forward all along the front this year, gaining more than 800 square kilometres (310 miles) of terrain.
But these tactical wins have come at a high cost.
Ukraine’s armed forces claimed on Sunday that 9,290 Russian servicemen were killed or wounded from September 22 to 29, an average of more than 1,300 per day, as has been the case for much of the year. Ukraine reported that Russia lost 101 tanks and 254 armoured combat vehicles.
Al Jazeera was unable to confirm the toll.
“Russian forces do not have the available manpower and materiel to continue intensified offensive efforts indefinitely,” according to the International Security Service.
We are developing Ukraine’s defence industry.
Ukraine claimed it had weakened Russia’s massive firepower advantage this year and was also straining Russian manpower reserves.
To date, the ratio of the use of artillery ammunition on the battlefield has decreased compared to the winter of 2024,” Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Ivan Havryliuk said at a telethon on Tuesday. “Then the ratio was 1:8. Today, it is one to three.”
That was consistent with remarks made last month by commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said Russia was firing 2.5 artillery shells for every one fired by Ukraine.
The officials should have provided a detailed explanation for why this was happening.
Zelenskyy connected it to Ukraine’s counter-invasion of the Russian territory of Kursk on August 6.
There could be other causes. Ukraine experienced shell shortages in the winter of 2023-2024 when US House Republicans delayed critical military funding for six months. That aid resumed in May, and US President Joe Biden announced on September 26 that it would be expended by the end of the year.
“I have directed the Department of Defense to allocate all of its remaining security assistance funding that has been appropriated for Ukraine by the end of my term in office,” he told reporters during Zelenskyy’s visit to the White House.
This includes $5.5 billion in drawdown authority from current stockpiles and $2.4 billion through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which commissions new weaponry.
Ukraine’s defence industry plays a role.
Kyiv began making its own 155mm rounds this year. Ukraine’s strategic industries minister, Herman Smetanin, announced last week that Ukraine would produce more artillery pieces this year than any other country.
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told a defence industry event in Kyiv on Wednesday that Ukraine’s defence industrial base increased threefold last year and twice as much in the first eight months of this year.
A fourth aspect in balancing the artillery ratio may be the rate at which Ukraine destroys Russian ammunition and guns.
This year, Ukraine has had significant success in attacking Russian logistics centres and munitions depots with drones manufactured in the country. Two weeks ago, strikes on two installations in the Tver and Krasnodar Krai regions of Russia destroyed an estimated 32,000 tonnes of weapons.
Ukraine’s general staff stated on Sunday that they had targeted another ammo storage in Kotluban, Volgrograd. However, NASA satellite imagery revealed that the explosions occurred outside the complex.
Ukrainian officials also stated that Russia was experiencing labour difficulties.
Dmytro Pletenchuk, a Navy spokesperson, told a telethon on Tuesday that Russian sailors had been spotted serving in the infantry.
“This can only indicate a serious degradation and a serious shortage of personnel,” he explained, “because specialists who belong to the ship’s crew need quite a long time for training.”
Ukraine’s partners offered new military aid packages, increasingly consisting of military-industrial collaborations rather than payments.
Ukraine and Denmark inked a defence cooperation deal on Sunday with a new financing model. Denmark will provide 175 million euros ($190 million) to Ukraine’s local arms sector, generating an additional 400 million euros ($440 million) from the earnings of frozen Russian state assets. The money will be used to build Ukrainian attack UAVs, anti-tank mines, and missiles.
On Tuesday, KNDS, the Franco-German defence business, stated that it had established a subsidiary in Kyiv to repair and service Leopard tanks, Cesar guns, Gepard guns, PzH 2000 armoured howitzers, and other equipment.
In-country maintenance is intended to shorten turnaround times and boost vehicle availability for combat operations. In addition, the corporation will collaborate with the Ukrainian industry to develop 155mm artillery.
Finally, on Saturday, the Netherlands delivered its first eight F-16s to Ukraine, which had received six from Denmark. One of the aircraft was lost in combat. Ukraine has stated that it needs at least 130 aircraft.
Ukraine is seeking additional investment from its Western partners.
According to Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, this year, it spent $4 billion on acquisitions from its defence sector. Prime Minister Shmyhal announced that the budget for domestic weapons procurement would increase to $7 billion next year.
Ukraine has a distinct advantage over Russia in terms of production and tactical competence when it comes to the use of unmanned systems. Zelenskyy stated last week that Ukraine has already manufactured 1.5 million drones of all varieties this year and plans to make two million more, compared to Russia’s 1.4 million. He said that Ukraine can build four million drones every year.
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Ukraine has also utilized small drones to compensate for its artillery deficiency, dropping grenades and other small bombs on Russian positions with precision. On Wednesday, the Presidential Brigade’s 2nd Mechanized Battalion showcased the TG-90, a hefty 2kg bomb dropped inside buildings via drone.
However, Russia is also investing significantly in its defence industrial base.
The Duma received its draft 2025 federal budget on Tuesday. It assigns 13.5 trillion rubles ($141.7 billion) to defence and another 3.5 trillion rubles ($36.8 billion) to national security, implying that defence and security will account for 41 per cent of the Russian budget next year. Health, education, and other social services contributed less than $70 billion.
According to some observers, Russia’s massive resources for its campaign in Ukraine do not appear to be translating into tangible progress.
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