- Russia’s military has improved but remains underprepared for a NATO confrontation
- Advances in drones and electronic warfare have strengthened its ground forces
- Russia’s air force and navy still face critical weaknesses
The war in Ukraine has heightened concerns about a potential future conflict between Russia and NATO. While Russia has improved its military operations since the early days of the invasion, the question remains: has it strengthened enough to confront NATO, the largest military alliance in history?
Russia’s Ground Forces
Russia’s army has expanded rapidly during the Ukraine conflict. However, its increased numbers have not compensated for inadequate training and equipment shortages. Moscow has relied on attrition, using large-scale forces to wear down Ukraine’s military. Learning from initial setbacks, Russia now deploys elite units like marines, airborne VDV, and Spetsnaz forces for offensive operations, equipping them with better gear and extended training.
The Russian military has shifted from brigades to divisions to absorb high casualties. Divisions, being larger, can endure losses and continue fighting, while brigades proved unsustainable in heavy combat.
Tanks and Heavy Equipment
Both Russia and Ukraine have relied on tanks in territorial battles, despite significant losses. Russia has lost over 8,000 tanks according to Kyiv’s figures. Even with its economy on war footing, Russia’s production of newer tanks, such as the T-90, has been slow. Many frontline units are still equipped with tanks that are 40 to 50 years old.
Technological Advancements
Despite equipment shortages, Russia has made strides in drone warfare and electronic warfare (EW). Drones now play a crucial role in spotting Ukrainian positions, allowing for more accurate artillery fire. EW units have improved their ability to jam Ukrainian communications and disrupt drones, giving Russia a tactical advantage on the ground. However, these advancements have not extended to Russia’s air force.
Russia’s Air Force: Weak Link
Russia’s air force has consistently underperformed throughout the conflict. Unlike Western militaries, which conduct strategic air campaigns, Russia’s air force is focused solely on supporting ground units. Poor planning and outdated doctrine have hindered its ability to target key military assets in Ukraine. Despite launching long-range missiles, Russia’s air force struggles to replace lost equipment and has proven ineffective in strategic warfare.
Russia’s Navy
The Black Sea fleet has suffered significant losses, including sunken ships and destroyed headquarters. Yet, Russia’s navy remains formidable, particularly its northern and eastern submarine forces, which form a critical part of the nation’s nuclear deterrent. Despite these strengths, Russia lacks a fully functional aircraft carrier, limiting its ability to project power globally.
War Economy and International Support
Russia’s defense budget is set to double by 2025, reaching $142 billion. This budget increase allows for continued production of tanks, missiles, and artillery, though it still struggles to replace battlefield losses. Western sanctions have made it harder for Russia to acquire advanced chips needed for high-tech weaponry. To offset these shortages, Russia has turned to allies like Iran, China, and North Korea for military supplies and technology, though the quality of these imports varies.
NATO vs. Russia: No Contest?
Despite Russia’s improvements, its military remains ill-prepared for a confrontation with NATO. Western defense spending has surged since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and NATO’s forces are better trained, better equipped, and more coordinated. Western air forces, in particular, are capable of crippling an enemy’s ability to see, move, and sustain itself in the opening minutes of a conflict.
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While Russia’s military may improve over time, experts warn that a pause in fighting could allow Russia to re-arm and modernize, potentially leading to future miscalculations, as seen in the lead-up to the Ukraine invasion. Should Moscow face significant defeats, the risk of nuclear escalation remains a looming threat.
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