The results of Polish election indicate that opposition parties secured sufficient support to depose the governing right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) party.
Electorate support for PiS surpassed that of Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition, a centrist opposition party, by 35.38% to 30.7%.
Nonetheless, it is now highly probable that Mr. Tusk can muster a comprehensive coalition.
The End of Kaczynski’s Rule
That would spell the end of Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s eight-year rule as leader of the PiS.
Tuesday marked the release of the final tally by the National Election Commission.
While the prevailing political party is anticipated to be granted the opportunity to establish a government, Mr. Kaczynski will notably fail to secure the 231 seats necessary to secure a majority in parliament.
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Tusk’s Path to Coalition
Sunday night, former European Council president Marko Tusk proclaimed, “This signifies the conclusion of the abyss; the PiS government has come to an annal.”
In the 460-seat Sejm, Mr. Tusk could secure 248 seats by forming a coalition government with the center-right Third Way and New Left parties. Third Way emerged as a significant victor in the election, amassing 14.4% of the vote.
Since the previous election, PiS has lost 41 seats, and even if it formed a coalition with the far-right Confederation party, it would still fall short by 19 seats to meet the minimum requirement.
A Landmark Election
The Poles had been warned by the opposition that this was their “last chance” to preserve democracy. Participation reached 74.38%, the highest level since the collapse of communism in 1989, according to the election commission.
“Poland has triumphed; democracy has triumphed,” Mr. Tusk, 66, exclaimed to a jubilant gathering of supporters in Warsaw.
Mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski lauded the “enormous power of civil society” following the revelation that 84.92 percent of the 1.35 million registered electors in the capital had participated.
Economic and Political Implications
The Polish stock market and Zloty rose more than 6% in expectation of a new government.
Mr. Kaczynski cautioned electors on Sunday night, following the exit poll results, that he did not know whether the party’s “success could be translated into another term in power.”
Campaigning and Observations
Parties had been permitted to campaign freely prior to Sunday’s election, according to international observers on Monday. However, PiS had a “clear advantage” due to skewed state media coverage and the improper use of public funds.
State TV focused on Mr. Kaczynski’s appeal to his supporters on election night, diminishing his opponent.
Voter Demographics
Warsaw, Krakow, and Wroclaw voters waited until late and early on Sunday despite the polls shutting at 21:00 local time.
Ipsos found that electors aged 18–29 outnumbered those 60 and older.
PiS Policies and International Relations
Since assuming office in 2015, the Law and Justice administration has prioritised Catholic family values. While increasing child support and pensioner payments, as well as the minimum wage.
A near-total ban on abortion was also implemented in 2021, and the party has faced allegations of politicising the judiciary through the appointment of judges sympathetic to the governing party to high courts.
In a dispute over the PiS judicial reforms, €36 billion (£30 billion) in EU Covid pandemic recovery funds were frozen. Mr. Tusk has sworn to improve relations with the EU and unfreeze those funds. Additionally, his coalition has pledged to liberalise abortion legislation.
Poland has accepted one million refugees and supported Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion a year ago.
Formation of the New Government
In recent weeks, PiS leaders did exhibit signs of vacillation; however, this was interpreted as an attempt to court far-right voters, and the incoming government is anticipated to maintain Poland’s support for its neighbour.
A new government may not be formed in Poland until December, according to PiS ally President Andrzej Duda. Who stated that in accordance with Polish tradition, the winning party would have the initial opportunity to form a coalition.
The Sejm would appoint a candidate who would also attempt to form a coalition and gain a vote of confidence in parliament if the PiS candidate selected by the president failed to secure a vote of confidence.
Mr. Tusk and his supporters may begin coalition negotiations this week, but it may take weeks.
