- Jordan’s Foreign Minister, Ayman Safadi, visits Iran to deter attacks on Israel
- Iran vows decisive response to Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination
- The US pledges to defend Israel, deploying military assets in the region
Jordan’s foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, has paid a rare visit to Iran in a last-ditch attempt to persuade it to refrain from bombing Israel in reaction to the killing of Hamas senior leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week.
The Western ally with a sizable Palestinian minority is facing a tricky balancing act as internal pressure mounts to cut ties with Tel Aviv and stop shielding it after shooting down Iranian missiles aimed at Israel earlier this year.
The visit seemed sure to fail, as Iran emphasised on Sunday that there was no place for compromise and that it would respond decisively to the assassination. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated the death of Haniyeh was a “major mistake by the Zionist regime [Israel] that will not go unanswered” during a meeting with Safadi, according to Iranian state TV.
The United States has stated that it will defend Israel in the case of an Iranian attack and has deployed warships and fighter fighters to the region. “We are doing everything possible to prevent this situation from escalating,” White House deputy national security advisor Jon Finer told ABC News on Sunday.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also called with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, emphasising “the importance of all parties taking steps to calm regional tensions, avoid further escalation, and advance stability,” according to the State Department.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that his country was “at a very high level” of preparedness for all scenarios, both defensive and offensive.
Before meeting Pezeshkian, Safadi stated that he was not carrying any messages to or from Israel. One of his concerns would be that Iran may target Jordan if it is viewed as assisting Israel in its defence against Iranian assaults.
My travel to Iran is to consult on the severe escalation in the area and to engage in a frank and open discussion about overcoming the two nations’ disagreements with honesty and openness, Safadi said at a press conference in Tehran alongside his Iranian counterpart.
Safadi decried Haniyeh’s assassination last Wednesday, calling it “a heinous crime and an escalation step that constitutes a violation of international and humanitarian law, as well as an infringement on state sovereignty.” “We completely reject it.
We demand effective action to end Israeli aggression in Gaza, to cease such illegal Israeli measures, and to avoid atrocities against the Palestinian people in order to protect the entire area from the consequences of a regional conflict that would be disastrous for everyone, he said.
In the previous Iranian strike on Israel in April, Jordan fired down some Iranian missiles passing over its airspace, stating that it would not allow its country to become a battlefield for future battles. It also allowed the French navy to deploy radars.
However, the monarchy is also facing enormous demonstrations in favour of Gaza. It is unhappy with Netanyahu for assassinating Haniyeh, which it has condemned as “an escalatory crime and flagrant violation of international law”. Israel has yet to issue a formal statement on Haniyeh’s assassination, but its involvement is generally known.
More than half of Jordan’s population is Palestinian or of Palestinian heritage.
Iran claims the assassination violated too many red lines. It has called for an Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit to pressure Arab Gulf powers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to impose sanctions on Israel.
Safadi’s visit to Iran is the first by a Jordanian foreign minister in two decades. It follows the failure of a phone call between the two sides to reach a diplomatic resolution.
His criticism of Israel’s treatment of Palestinians has been extreme in recent months. “The Israeli government acts in a way that reflects their racism, extremism and rejection of the right of the Palestinians to live like any other people on this Earth,” he told me recently. However, Jordan is heavily reliant on the US for security and will rejoin the April alliance to mitigate the consequences of any Iranian attack.
Former diplomats and politicians in Tehran are also having a spirited debate about how to respond in a way that does not benefit Netanyahu. The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will make the final choice based on advice from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Most commentators in Tehran believe Netanyahu’s attack was intended to undermine the newly elected government of reformist leader Masoud Pezeshkian and its aim to improve relations with the West. Following the 7 October assaults, Israel pledged to murder all Hamas officials, and its intelligence services have a history of conducting covert killings within Iran.
Iran has also been interested in US media claims that Joe Biden chastised Netanyahu in a phone call on Thursday for lying to him about his plans to assassinate Haniyeh, who was also the top Hamas negotiator in ceasefire talks, and for imposing more unreasonable preconditions on the negotiations.
According to Israeli media reports, Netanyahu’s intelligence and defence officials informed him that they could not negotiate a ceasefire agreement on the terms he had set.
However, Tehran is sceptical that Biden’s dissatisfaction with Israel’s leadership would result in any adequate pressure on Netanyahu to grant his negotiators a new, more flexible mandate. Talks over the weekend yielded no results, and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Qalibaf urged for a firm response.
Pezeshkian is still establishing his government, but he has selected Javad Zarif as his vice-president for strategy. This position may offer him more significant power than when he was a foreign minister. Zarif firmly supports increased communication with the West and played a crucial role in completing the discussions that resulted in the 2015 Iranian nuclear accord. He also has extensive experience with the elements within Iran that will strive to undermine him.
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The internal argument in Iran regarding the best military response has also been influenced by the frequently heated dispute about whether Iran’s intelligence services were compromised by their Israeli counterpart, the Mossad, or were simply incompetent.
The IRGC’s official explanation is that Haniyeh was murdered by a “short-range projectile” fired from outside his northern Tehran home.
In response to the death of Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr in Lebanon, Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari stated that there was no other Israeli aerial attack in the Middle East.
The IRGC account contrasts with the accusation that a device was planted in Haniyeh’s bedroom two months ago and exploded when he visited Tehran for Pezeshkian’s inauguration. Either scenario necessitates knowledge of Haniyeh’s exact sleeping arrangements in Tehran, given only his flat was targeted.
Tehran is rife with rumours of betrayal by the intelligence agencies, including denied reports that Hassan Karmi, the head of Faraja special operations, had been captured for spying. Abolfazl Zahravand, a member of the Iranian parliament’s national security commission, stated, “The Israelis have an influence network inside Tehran and Iran. Evil elements collaborate with them, who have defined themselves within the ‘Mossad network’.”
The authenticity of the competing and often weird “exclusive” reasons for Haniyeh’s death is influenced by the desire of several intelligence agencies, both Western and Iranian, as well as some newspapers, to damage their rivals.
