- OIC held an emergency meeting in Jeddah after Hamas leader Haniyeh’s assassination
- Iran vows retaliation against Israel, possibly leading to broader conflict
- Hezbollah likely to launch attacks on Israel, escalating regional tensions
The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), a group of 57 countries, held an emergency conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Wednesday at Iran’s request to examine, among other things, the death of Hamas senior leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week.
The event provided an opportunity for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who has promised “harsh punishment” for the death, to spell out the reasons for an expected retaliation.
Both Iran and Hamas claim the assassination on July 31 was carried out by Israel, which has not reacted but is widely assumed to be responsible.
The acting Iranian foreign minister, Baqeri Ali Bagheri Kani, stated that his country had “no choice” but to reply and that this would happen “at the right time and in the appropriate shape.”
Mr. Kani described the potential Iranian response as “not only a defence of its own sovereignty and national security,” but also a “defense of the stability and security of the entire region.”
Haniyeh was slain in a tightly guarded guesthouse managed by Iran’s top military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), while visiting Tehran for the inauguration of the country’s new President, Masoud Pezeshkian, in a humiliating breach of Iranian security.
Since then, every sign, remark, or statement from Iran has been keenly scrutinized for clues as to how and when it would respond, with concerns that retribution could spark a more significant conflict with Israel.
However, Mr Kani provided no clues, and given the West’s seeming poor intelligence, what Iran may be preparing needs to be clarified.
In April, eight IRGC personnel were killed in a strike on the Iranian diplomatic facility in Damascus, which was thought to be carried out by Israel.
After days of telegraphing its intentions, Iran launched over 300 missiles and drones toward Israel; almost all of them were intercepted by Israel, and a US-led coalition and the counterattack was ineffective.
Last week, American officials warned that Iran may have been planning a more extensive operation to avoid repeating that mistake.
According to recent media reports, the details of Haniyeh’s assassination – possibly from within Iran with local assistance rather than a precise air strike from outside – combined with the fact that no Iranians were killed and diplomatic efforts from Western and Arab countries may have forced Tehran to reconsider its plans.
Jordan’s foreign minister paid a rare visit to Iran earlier this week. On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron talked with Mr Pezeshkian, urging him to “do everything to avoid a new military escalation.”
Meanwhile, Hezbollah, Lebanon’s Iranian-backed militia and political movement, is likely to launch another attack on Israel.
The group has threatened to reply to Israel’s execution of senior leader Fuad Shukr, which occurred just hours before Haniyeh’s assassination in its stronghold of Dahiya in Beirut’s southern suburbs.
Concerns about a big battle in Lebanon have grown after Hezbollah increased its attacks on Israel, a day after Hamas’ attacks on October 7.
The majority of the violence has been restricted to areas around the Lebanon-Israel border, with both Hezbollah and Israel stressing that they are not interested in a full-scale conflict.
So far, the organization has primarily attacked Israeli military facilities, but its operations are becoming more sophisticated and targeting places further within the country.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who has pledged a “strong” and “effective” response, named Shukr as one of the “strategic minds of the resistance” and claimed they spoke on the phone an hour before his death.
In the past, Hezbollah has responded to the assassination of prominent commanders by shooting missiles at Israel. Having such a high-profile figure slain in their base in the Lebanese capital will almost certainly result in a more symbolic response, but one that adheres to the group’s stated rules of engagement.
In Lebanon, where many still remember the devastation wrought by the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, many feel they are being drawn into a fight that is not in the country’s best interests. However, a crippled Hezbollah is not in Iran’s interests either. With its precision-guided missiles and attack drones, Hezbollah is an essential component of Iran’s deterrence right on Israel’s borders.
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Israel considers Iran’s nuclear program to be an existential threat, and Hezbollah is likely to play a critical role in Iran’s reaction if its facilities are attacked.
Hezbollah is the primary force in the so-called Axis of Resistance. This Iranian-backed alliance includes Yemen’s Houthis and Iraq’s militias, both of which have carried out strikes against Israel and Western targets since October.
It is unclear whether Iran and its proxies will coordinate their reaction, but reports in US media suggest Hezbollah may act independently and first.
This week, Gen Michael Kurilla, the director of US Central Command, visited Israel to examine security preparations, and the US is anticipated to spearhead another attempt to safeguard Israel in the event of an Iranian strike.
And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned to “exact a heavy price for any act of aggression against us, from whatever quarter.
As the wait continues, flights in Israel and Lebanon are being canceled or suspended, airlines are avoiding the nations’ airspaces, and foreign governments are advising their populations to evacuate. Some people are preparing for conflict, and the region may find itself in the midst of one, whether on purpose or not.
