- Sinwar miscalculated Israeli response
- Planned to end Israeli siege
- Massive operation, unforeseen consequences
The calculations “did not go as planned,” according to a friend of leader Yahya Sinwar, with the Israelis’ response being “uncontrolled and without justification.”
Yahya Sinwar, the highest-ranking Hamas commander in Gaza, was a key planner of the attack on Israel on 7 October, but he did not anticipate the consequences to be “this dangerous.”
According to Esmat Mansour, the cross-border assault that took place last year was intended to be a calculated manoeuvre to end the Israeli siege on the region, secure the release of Sinwar’s companions from incarceration, and elevate him to the position of “leader of the Palestinian people.”
However, the calculations “did not go as planned,” the Israelis’ reaction was “uncontrolled and without justification,” and “this is the result at hand,” he elaborated.
“Sinwar did not anticipate that the operation would become so hazardous and complicated to the extent that it did. It proceeded to the extent that it did. Furthermore, it provided Israel with every rationale and pretext to violate every regulation.
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Mansour, speaking from Ramallah in the West Bank, remarked, “I believe he was a key figure in this operation.”
He claimed that Sinwar “would never have devised an operation in this manner” if he had been aware of the potential repercussions of the assault.
Mansour, who has shared a prison cell with Sinwar, stated that the Hamas leader “desired a transformation.”
Sinwar “attempted on multiple occasions to negotiate with the Palestinian Authority, to establish a positive rapport with Egypt, and to provoke Israel to lift the siege on Gaza,” according to his former fellow inmate.
“Despite his ceaseless endeavours, he was unsuccessful.” Thereafter, he was compelled to alter his strategy in order to execute such a massive operation. A significant portion of it was conceived by Sinwar.”
Approximately 250 people were taken hostage during Hamas’ raid on Israel last October, of which 1,200 were killed (mostly civilians).
According to the health ministry, which is operated by Hamas, retaliatory Israeli attacks on Gaza have claimed the lives of at least 28,576 Palestinians, the majority of whom were children and women.
Since 7 October, the Israeli military asserts it has killed or captured between 8,000 and 9,000 Hamas fighters.
Along with the ground assault and bombardment, approximately 80% of Gaza’s 2.3 million inhabitants have been displaced from their homes.
Significant portions of northern Gaza have been reduced to ruins, the majority of the population has fled to the southern regions, and a quarter of the populace is facing starvation due to a humanitarian crisis.
Days after the 7 October attack, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) published a video. It purported to show Sinwar and his family traversing tunnels beneath the southern Gazan city of Khan Younis.
The individual whose face Israel identifies as Sinwar is obscured.
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Mansour, now an analyst, said the clip was Israeli military propaganda for Palestinians and Israelis.
“They [the Israelis] want to say that they are following him and trying to get him,” he said.
However, he noted that it showed Gazans that he was fleeing and staying with his family despite their pain.
Mansour is convinced that his acquaintance remains in the Gaza Strip and “under no circumstances” will he evacuate the territory.
He stated that he believes his legitimacy and popularity as a leader will diminish if he withdraws from Gaza.
