He has ruled Russia without dissent for more than two decades, guiding the nation into a devastating invasion of Ukraine. However, a former British spy believes that Vladimir Putin’s reign may soon come to an end.
Christopher Steele, who created the Trump-Russia dossier, believes Vladimir Putin will be gone “within the next year.”
Christopher Steele, who oversaw the Russia division at London’s MI6 from 2006 to 2009, stated that the West must “prepare for the end of the Putin era.”
Steele describes scenarios that may end the Russian president’s rule after the Wagner coup failed.
Putin dies of illness or is murdered.
There have been numerous rumors about Putin’s health, including that he is gravely unwell with cancer.
Steele states that the precise nature of any health complaint is unknown. “Very credible sources tell us he’s been ill for some time,” suggesting he may die suddenly.
It is also plausible that he could be assassinated, possibly by internal elements or by an outside plot.
Steele said the West’s worst-case scenario is “all bets off” and “factional bloodshed” before a replacement.
According to the former agent, FSB director Alexander Bortnikov could be among the frontrunners for power in such a scenario.
Due to the failure of the Ukraine conflict, the regime fell.
Putin invaded Ukraine expecting a quick win, but the outcome has been far different.
The ambitions to conquer the entire nation were misguided, and the fighting continues despite the demoralization of many soldiers.
According to Steele, the slow progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive may have given Putin some “breathing space”. Dissatisfaction over the invasion and growing sanctions on the Russian economy and wealthy and powerful may be crucial.
According to him, this is the most likely outcome, with the following narrative playing out: “A move is made violently, if necessary, to kill or overthrow Putin in favor of another securocrat or regime oligarch – but one who has distanced themselves from the war and is willing to negotiate a genuine end to it with the West.”
Governor of the Tula oblast and “rising star” Aleksey Dyumin is mentioned as a prospective successor.
The others are oligarch ‘Darth Vader Igor Sechin and former Russian prime minister Viktor Zubkov.
While such a narrative could hasten the end of the conflict, Steele warns that nationalists in the security services who have lost faith in Putin but wish to continue the fighting could seize control in an alternative scenario.
Putin resigns and endorses a successor.
After 20 years in power and mounting criticism, the 70-year-old leader may resign at the March 2024 poll.
According to Steele, the elections provide Putin with a “potential exit” and he could choose to support a successor such as Dmitry Patrushev, the son of the secretary of the Russian Security Council, or Aleksey Dyumin.
The former MI6 agent asserts that appointing one of these individuals as leader would result in “little or no change to the war in Ukraine, but at least the West would be facing a Russian leader who has not proven to be untrustworthy, a liar, or a war criminal.”
Like Boris Yeltsin in 1999, Putin may obtain immunity for himself and his family in a power-transfer deal.
According to Steele, Putin is aware that a similar agreement may be feasible for him in the future.
Military putsch
Wagner mercenaries tried to overthrow Russia’s military commanders, but their chief stopped them before they could reach Moscow.
However, Steele suggests that a second possibility would be a plot orchestrated by senior officers of the nation’s primary armed forces who are “disillusioned by the failures and losses in Ukraine.”
He predicted a transitional regime with General Surovikin, commander of Russia’s aerospace forces, as president.
Despite the possibility, he considers this scenario “extremely unlikely.”
Steele continues, “I believe there is now significant unease among key members of the leadership.”
“Not just in the armed forces, where the generals have been openly criticizing Putin and the Kremlin for its support of the war – which is unprecedented – but more generally the idea of the trajectory of Russia now: led by a president indicted for war crimes, who is guiding the Russian economy down a certain path.”
Popular revolt
An uprising by a nationalist figure such as Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin or a democratic action by supporters of jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny would be a less probable way for Putin to be deposed.
This, according to the ex-spy, would be “extremely unpredictable and potentially bloody in the short term,” with obviously more favorable outcomes for the West and Ukraine if democratic figures could seize control.
