The two largest opposition groups won Sunday’s national elections, rejecting nearly a decade of military rule.
However, in a kingdom where coups and judicial orders have frequently trumped elections, fears persist that the military may attempt to cling to power, heightening the risk of fresh instability.
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha, the ex-army commander who seized power in a 2014 coup, exemplified the conservative, royalist establishment. The election campaign was a clash between a young generation yearning for change and this establishment.
With votes from 75 percent of polling stations tabulated, the reformist Move Forward Party (MFP) had nearly 8.4 million votes, followed by Pheu Thai with 6.8 million votes.
Prayut’s United Thai Nation party came in third with 2,8 million votes. But it is still unclear how the popular vote will translate into parliamentary seats.
Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of the MFP, stated that his party could win 160 of the 500 seats in the lower house, declaring that the outcome “closed the door” on the possibility of army-backed parties forming a minority government.
Pita told reporters that MFP will pursue talks with Pheu Thai and that a coalition agreement is “definitely possible.”
The leader of Pheu Thai, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, congratulated MFP on its success and stated, “We can work together.”
She stated, “We are prepared to speak with Move Forward, but are awaiting the official result.”
Pheu Thai, the party of billionaire ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, now led by his daughter Paetongtarn, urged voters to grant them a landslide victory to thwart the prospect of military intervention.
The Election Commission will not announce the final seat count for several weeks.
Due to the 2017 constitution drafted by the junta, MFP and Pheu Thai may still confront a power struggle even without an overwhelming majority.
500 elected MPs and 250 senators handpicked by Prayut’s junta will choose the new prime minister, favouring the military.
In the controversial 2019 election, Prayut became prime minister with the support of the senate.
Adding to the uncertainty, rumors are already circulating that MFP could be disbanded by court order, the same fate that befell its antecedent Future Forward Party after it performed surprisingly well in the 2019 election.
Protest legacy
The election was the first since significant youth-led pro-democracy demonstrations erupted in Bangkok in 2020 with demands to limit the power and spending of Thailand’s king, breaking a long-standing taboo against questioning the monarchy.
As Covid-19 restrictions were imposed and scores of leaders were arrested, the demonstrations waned. But their energy fueled the growth of support for the more radical opposition MFP.
As he arrived to vote in Bangkok, 42-year-old Pita anticipated a “historic turnout”.
“These days, younger generations care about their rights and will vote,” he told reporters.
While MFP sought support from millennial and Gen Z voters, who account for nearly half of the 52 million-strong electorate. Pheu Thai relied on its traditional stronghold in the rural northeast. Where voters are still appreciative of Thaksin’s welfare policies from the early 2000s.
As election results were announced, Prayut thanked voters for their support as he departed his party’s headquarters.
He told reporters, “I will continue to do my best regardless of the outcome.”
The retired commander boldly appealed to elder voters as the one candidate who could save Thailand from anarchy and disaster.
He was blamed for a slow economic recovery and the pandemic’s destruction of the kingdom’s tourism industry.
