- Taiwan election tensions
- US closely monitoring
- China-Taiwan relationship scrutinized
A month ago, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping engaged in open and personal conversation while strolling through the verdant gardens of a magnificent mansion in California.
It was their first in-person summit in a year, and the Chinese president was candid: Taiwan, Xi told his American counterpart, was the most critical and perilous issue in the tense relationship between the two nations.
The Chinese government’s stance towards the self-governing archipelago it claims as its own will once more be scrutinised on January 13, when Taiwanese citizens elect a new president and parliament. The United States will be intently monitoring the proceedings.
Potential Impact on US-China Relations
Presently, the prevailing anticipation is that William Lai Ching-te, the incumbent vice president and candidate of the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), will emerge victorious.
The outcome in question would probably infuriate Beijing, as it would depict Lai as a “separatist” determined to achieve independence, thereby ensuring ongoing tensions across the narrow strait that divides the island from China.
“Washington is adequately equipped to address any decision that the Taiwanese electorate may make,” Rory Daniels, managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute, told. “However, the outcome of the election will undoubtedly present unique opportunities and challenges.” The United States is also contemplating “appropriate political signal” strategies to dissuade Chinese military retaliation.
Since voters elected Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP as president for the first time in 2016, Beijing has increased pressure on Taiwan by severing all official dialogue, conducting military exercises around the island, and pressuring Taiwan’s few remaining formal diplomatic allies to change their recognition to Beijing.
Despite maintaining official relations with China, the United States, legally obligated, remains Taiwan’s most substantial international supporter, furnishing the island with defensive capabilities. It approved the sale of military equipment and munitions worth millions of dollars to the island in August.
Potential consequences:
Opinion polls indicate that Lai is marginally more popular than Hou Yu-ih of the opposition Kuomintang.
Although people perceive the KMT as being more amicable to Beijing, none of its candidates endorse the unification that forms the basis of Beijing’s approach to the island. To varying degrees, each candidate desires to maintain cooperation with the United States and limit China’s influence.
Despite China’s outrage, Tsai has strengthened cooperation with Washington since assuming office. During her stopovers in the United States, she has hosted dozens of US politicians, including former House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and met with key representatives. Tsai argues that the people of Taiwan should determine their own future.
“She is currently, I would argue, the best president of Taiwan that the United States will ever have,” said Kharis Templeman, programme manager of the Hoover Institution’s Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific at Stanford University.
A victory for Lai, who has also visited the United States and is a member of the DPP, could further isolate Taiwan from Beijing, which has accused Lai of advocating for independence and threatening conflict.
On August 20, 2022, during Pelosi’s visit to Taipei, Beijing initiated unparalleled military exercises in the vicinity of the island and severed military communications with Washington.
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US Strategies Amid Taiwan’s Political Dynamics
Without open channels of communication with Beijing, Lai will focus intensely on ensuring his relationships with the United States are solid,” Daniels said.
Daniels argues that in the event of a Hou victory, the United States would have to devise a strategy to counter the likely expansion of Beijing’s influence. However, analysts contend that a Hou triumph could potentially have positive ramifications for US-China relations by potentially defusing tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
“That would enable the United States and China to marginalise Taiwan from the centre of their relationship,” Templeman of Stanford University observed.
A caveat, however, is that parliamentary elections are also scheduled for January 13, and while Lai is currently leading the polls for president, the DPP may lose its majority in the legislature, according to experts.
Under such circumstances, the United States government would closely monitor the candidates’ performance in interparty and intraparty negotiations.
Already, concerns have been expressed regarding the opposition parties’ capacity to collaborate, following the disastrous attempt by the KMT and Taiwan People’s Party to present a unity ticket and mount a coordinated challenge to the DPP. The TPP defeated Hou and Ko Wen-je in a contentious public dispute over the presidential candidate, resulting in a humiliating public spectacle.
Principles and policies:
Regardless of the result, the United States will persist in emphasising the importance of dialogue and the avoidance of military conflict, particularly in light of the resumption of the military dialogue that was halted during Pelosi’s visit a month ago.
Daniels argues that the increased United States transit through the Taiwan Strait in recent years runs the risk of being misunderstood.
Daniels told, “There will be these minor flare-ups that each side believes is for defensive purposes but which the other side will perceive as so aggressive that it will set off an escalating cycle.”
As opposed to engaging in high-profile diplomatic visits that have exacerbated political and military tensions, Daniels contends that the United States could make more substantial commitments to advance the situation.
“A free-trade agreement between the United States and Taiwan would serve as an incredibly powerful expression of support for the bilateral relationship.” “Moreover, the United States is capable of fulfilling its foreign military sales obligations to Taiwan,” Daniels stated. “Taiwan has reportedly purchased a substantial quantity of equipment that has not yet been delivered.”
Although the United States backs deterrence against Taiwan, it has maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding the status of the island for years, as evidenced by its stance on “One China.”
The United States’ policy known as “One China” formally acknowledges Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is an integral part of China but does not recognise Beijing’s position that it is the only legitimate government of China.
On the contrary, Beijing regards One China as a fundamental principle that underpins its assertion of sovereignty concerning Taiwan.
However, since assuming office in 2021, Biden has raised doubts about whether the United States has altered its strategy.
The president has stated that the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of a military conflict with Beijing on multiple occasions. In response, the White House has qualified his statements and reaffirmed that the status quo has not changed.
Templeman stated, “There is a contradiction at the heart of U.S. policy towards Taiwan, which does inspire some scepticism of the United States as a whole.”
“Out of our control”:
One individual who raises scepticism regarding the United States’ dedication to Taiwan is documentary filmmaker S Leo Chiang, who closely monitors the rhetoric of American politicians regarding the matter.
“According to Biden, the administration maintains a different position. “There is an infinite amount of uncertainty,” Chiang told.
Chiang is not the only individual who has inquiries regarding the United States’ commitment.
According to a September survey by the Institute of European and American Studies at Academia Sinica, the preeminent research institution in Taiwan, public confidence in the United States has decreased from 45.3 percent in 2021 to 34 percent in the present year.
Almost one-third of respondents said they did not believe the United States would use force to assist Taiwan if Beijing used force to seize control of the island.
Chiang, who possesses passports from both the United States and Taiwan, has resided in both nations. As a Taiwanese citizen who intends to cast a ballot, he deems it alarming to have witnessed
the Republican blockade and schism in Congress regarding the shipment of additional aid to Ukraine last month.
Taiwan’s Struggle for Autonomy
Chiang stated, “My greatest fear is the politicisation of Ukraine, just as I fear that will occur in Taiwan.” “Despite the fact that they proclaim to the world that they are defenders of democracy, that is not always the case in practice.”
However, professionals advise against drawing direct parallels between Taiwan and Ukraine. Templeman points out that Taiwan is the tenth largest trading partner of the United States and a vital supplier of sophisticated semiconductor chips, emphasising the close economic relationship between the two countries.
In the crosshairs of two superpowers are Taiwan’s population of over 23 million individuals.
During the 1970s, a period of martial law in Taiwan, Chiang grew up. During military exercises, his grandmother’s basement served as the neighbourhood block’s bomb shelter.
Presently, Taiwan stands as a paradigm of democratic strength within the region, with subterranean chambers serving as dwelling and storage areas.
“We have endured this for an extended period of time, and there is a sense that it is uncontrollable,” Chiang explained. “I advocate granting Taiwan the right to self-determination.” “Unfortunately, that will not occur anytime soon; this is a tremendous source of frustration.”
