The second-largest economy in the world might experience an increase in cases and more than a million deaths next year, according to projections.
Scientists have cautioned that it may be premature to declare the end of the COVID-19 epidemic due to fears of a possibly catastrophic new wave in China.
China began dismantling its zero-COVID policy last month in response to a surge of infections and massive public outrage.
After the rapid change in direction, it is anticipated that the world’s second-largest economy will experience an explosion of cases and more than a million deaths next year.
Among China’s population of 1,4 billion, the zero-COVID strategy had kept infections and deaths to a minimum.
However, the World Health Organization (WHO) stated that the method was not “sustainable” due to mounting worries about its impact on people’s lives and the economy.
According to experts, President Xi Jinping’s move last week has altered the global landscape.
Marion Koopmans, a Dutch virologist who serves on a WHO group tasked with advising on the status of the COVID emergency, stated, “The question is whether you can term it post-pandemic when such a large portion of the world is only entering its second wave.
“It is evident that we are in a very different phase [of the epidemic], but that impending wave in China is a wild card in my opinion.
In September, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the World Health Organization, stated that “the end is in sight” for the pandemic.
Last week, he told reporters in Geneva that he was “optimistic” that the emergency would be resolved within the next year.
In addition to the concerns for China, experts in global health have warned that allowing the virus to spread domestically could provide it with the opportunity to mutate.
They are concerned that this could lead to the emergence of a new form, similar to how the disease has developed when allowed to spread across large populations in other places.
David Heymann, an infectious disease specialist and WHO advisor, stated, “I don’t think anyone can forecast with certainty whether we could see new varieties that could be of concern to the rest of the globe, but the world should be concerned if people in China are falling ill and dying.”
He noted that the situation in China would certainly continue to be an emergency, but it may pose more of a regional than a global concern.
China employs a restricted definition of COVID deaths and reported no new fatalities on Tuesday, erasing one from its pandemic-wide total.
The current death toll is 5,241, a fraction of the numbers experienced in many less populous nations.
This week, China’s National Health Commission stated that only pneumonia and respiratory failure deaths in people infected with the virus are classed as COVID deaths.
However, Benjamin Mazer, an assistant professor of pathology at Johns Hopkins University, stated that such a categorization would overlook “many cases.”
He continued, “It makes no sense to use this March 2020 mentality in which only COVID pneumonia may kill you. There are many different types of medical difficulties.”
