- Taiwan military exercises
- Chinese military purges
- Fear of conflict persists
In late December, Danny Jia was traversing a street adjacent to the city of Taoyuan, Taiwan, when he abruptly detected the sound of automatic gunfire.
The 249th mechanised infantry brigade of the Taiwanese armed forces was conducting military exercises at Guanyin Beach on the island’s northwest coast, not far from Jia’s location that morning.
“I nearly dropped my phone out of shock,” the 46-year-old civil servant remarked.
Jia added, “The exercises are also a sobering reminder that a future war with Taiwan is a distinct possibility.”
Guanyin Beach is one of Taiwan’s so-called “red beaches” – sections of coastline that provide the most favourable conditions for amphibious landing assaults in the event of a Chinese invasion.
Guanyin Beach is strategically located at a distance of 50 kilometres (31 miles) from the outskirts of the Taiwanese capital, Taipei, and less than 18 kilometres (11 miles) from Taiwan’s primary international airport, making it an ideal location for military strategists from China.
Self-ruled and political Beijing has considered using force to subdue Taiwan, which has never been part of the PRC. It considers it to be part of its territory.
Xi’s Unification Proclamation and Military Dynamics
Chinese President Xi Jinping referred to the unification of Taiwan and mainland China as “inevitable” in his New Year’s address.
Jia believes red beach military exercises prepare the Taiwanese military for unexpected events. This is due to the potential of Chinese forces invading Taiwan’s territory.
In recent times, Jia has concluded that such a scenario is highly improbable, owing to developments within the Chinese military.
Nine high-ranking military officers were relieved of their positions at the conclusion of December.
The Chinese military’s elite “rocket force”—which makes tactical and nuclear missiles—was among those killed.
Similarly, two prominent members of the rocket force were eliminated earlier in August.
In the same month, Li Shuangfu, the then-defence minister of China, vanished.
Subsequently, Li was terminated and substituted with Dong Jun.
Jia stated that he was unable to envision the Chinese armed forces being equipped to prepare for the intricate logistics associated with a forthcoming large-scale assault on Taiwan, given the significant turnover among the highest-ranking officials.
“The Chinese military is far too chaotic for that, in my opinion,” he stated.
Taiwan’s restricted respite
As per the findings of Christina Chen, a research fellow at the Institute for National Defence and Security Research (INDSR), individuals residing in Taiwan have valid grounds to enhance their sense of security.
Chen said, “The dismissal of senior officers demonstrates that Xi Jinping is manifestly not confident in the military, which reduces the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan in the near future.”
The rapid removal of several Chinese officers may decrease the military’s combat spirit as they wonder who may come next.
“Additional removals are possible, which could further undermine the military’s morale and combat capabilities,” Chen warned.
Although the likelihood of an imminent conflict in the Taiwan Strait has diminished, Chen remains convinced. She believes that Beijing will continue to pursue its long-term objective of acquiring Taiwan.
Dong Jun, the newly appointed defence minister of China, possesses prior experience in military affairs pertaining to Taiwan through his positions as Chinese naval commander, deputy commander of the Southern Theatre Command, and deputy commander of the East Sea Fleet.
China’s Strategic Military Transformations
Chen states that while the position of defence minister in China primarily entails diplomatic and public responsibilities, the selection of the seasoned Dong Jun needed to be more capricious.
She stated that it exemplifies Beijing’s overarching goal of transforming China into a maritime superpower capable of competing with the United States and ultimately annexing Taiwan.
Beijing has increasingly projected its expanding air and maritime influence in Taiwan’s direction in recent years.
Daily Chinese military incursions into Taiwan’s air and maritime domain are regular.
In times of heightened tension, large-scale military exercises and sabre-rattling rhetoric have also occurred in the waters surrounding Taiwan.
This phenomenon persisted subsequent to the visits of former United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei in 2022 and Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen to San Francisco, where she conferred with Pelosi’s successor, Kevin McCarthy, last year.
Confident analysts anticipate a comparable stance from China prior to May. After winning the Taiwanese presidential election on January 13, President-elect William Lai Ching-te took office.
Beijing considers Lai a separatist and says the election will not change its policy on Taiwan-Mainland unification.
Chen perceives that Beijing’s coercion campaign against Taiwan persists, notwithstanding the personnel reductions within the Chinese military.
“That will remain the same regardless of the number of military officers removed,” she stated.
The biggest purge
Associate Professor Alfred Wu, an expert at the National University of Singapore who specialises in governance and corruption in China, asserts that the dismissal of Chinese military officials entails far more than a mere reorganisation.
Wu said, “In addition to the anticorruption effort, it is a purge.”
“By strengthening his grip on the military, Xi Jinping is sending a signal to all those who are not fully aligned with him that they could be next and should therefore be afraid,” he explained.
In an effort to secure loyalty in China’s authoritarian state structure, where a lack of oversight and transparency can easily lead to corruption and poor governance, Wu described the use of fear as a strategic weapon.
Multiple anticorruption campaigns have led to purges across the Chinese state apparatus since Xi assumed office in 2012.
Despite the Chinese military’s long history of corruption, targeting its elite missile unit is unprecedented.
Observers called the assault one of the largest in Chinese military history.
“A continuous process” purges under Xi, who demands military allegiance, according to Wu.
Potential Impact of Ongoing Purges
Wu speculates that the frequency and severity of purges could increase due to the Chinese government’s waning legitimacy during the nation’s economic expansion, which coincides with indications of economic weakness.
“The Chinese government may become more insecure as a result of the economic situation, prompting them to take more aggressive measures to secure loyalty within the state and military,” he said.
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However, persistent purges within the Chinese military could potentially exert a lasting influence on its operational capacities.
Wu stated, “It is difficult to fight a war when many of your generals are incarcerated.”
Back in the vicinity of one of Taiwan’s “red beaches” on the outskirts of Taoyuan City, Jia, the civil servant who was astonished by the December military exercises, stated that he wished no ill on anyone.
He also wishes for the purges to persist if they serve to preserve peace.
“I hope that additional Chinese officers will be laid off if it means that a war can be averted.”
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