- Houthis threaten submarine cables
- Iran possibly aiding Houthis
- Escalation risks major conflict
Revenge manifests itself in various ways. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have openly expressed their intention to respond to Western-led airstrikes that have targeted their missile and drone launch sites with retaliatory actions.
These actions have been in response to over thirty Houthi assaults on foreign vessels in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, which they claim support the Palestinians in Gaza.
Consequently, the consequences have increased.
The legitimate government of Yemen, recognised by the United Nations and headquartered in Aden, has warned that the Houthis, who occupied a significant portion of Yemen in 2014, are now threatening to sabotage the vital submerged communication cables, including internet lines, that connect Asia and Europe via the Red Sea.
A channel associated with the Houthis on the Telegram messaging application published a map depicting subsea cable routes in the Red Sea, prompting the advisory.
These cables could be sabotaged by the Houthis. If they had the capability, they would almost certainly do so.
Challenges in Undersea Cable Sabotage
Reportedly, the group has obtained maps showing the confluence of subsea communications cables crossing their coastline with relative ease, as they pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is a mere 20 miles (32 km) at its narrowest point.
However, 17% of the world’s internet traffic is carried by fibre cables that are predominantly hundreds of metres below the surface of the water, well beyond the visibility of divers.
Both the United States and Russia are believed to possess the naval capacity to destroy them. This is achieved by launching a deep-sea submersible from a mothership and severing the cables on the ocean floor with what are essentially enormous scissors.
It would be more challenging, however, for the Houthis to achieve this.
Regarding the group’s alleged threat to sabotage the cables, former Royal Navy submarine commander Rear Adm John Gower states, “I believe it’s a bluff, unless it’s an assault on a terminal.”
It would require a capable ally, specifically one who possesses both a submersible and the capability to locate the cables.
Houthis’ Threat and Iran’s Calculations
Iran is an ally of the Houthi regime. The Houthis, with assistance from Hezbollah of Lebanon and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, have amassed an enormous arsenal of missiles and drones.
They have launched these at UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, US, and British warships, as well as any vessel they suspect of ties to Israel, the US, or the UK, over the past eight years.
Therefore, Iran may have facilitated the Houthis’ capability to sever the submarine cables.
Former Royal Navy Cdr Tom Sharpe states, “I have not observed anything in the Iranian orbat (Order of Battle) that could touch these cables, and certainly not their submarines.”
“It is possible to dive, but the water is murky and crowded, so I believe it would be excessive,” he says. Cdr. Sharpe concurs with Rear Adm. Gower and states, “I believe this to be a bluff.”
Allowing an ally to sabotage the subsea internet cables of the globe would also be a risky move on the part of Iran.
It is clear that neither Iran nor the United States wishes to engage in a comprehensive armed conflict.
The ongoing confrontation between the United States and Iran’s allies and proxies in the Middle East is, to some extent, calibrated. Before attacking militia bases sponsored by Iran in Iraq and Syria, the United States issued a warning of several days, allowing critical personnel to evacuate.
Eliminating international communications cables would constitute a significant escalation, potentially leading to reciprocal airstrikes against Iran.
Iran’s Risky Disruption Strategy
“Iran’s expansion of their global disruption campaign [to shipping] would cause them concern,” according to Edmund Fitton-Brown, the former British ambassador to Yemen from 2015 to 2017.
He adds that the Iranians might turn to cyber options rather than infrastructure sabotage first.
In summary, the Houthi threat recently articulated on their Telegram channel appears to be exceedingly difficult to execute.
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Implementing such a strategy would present Iran with technical intricacies and political peril, given that the West attributes every Houthi assault in the Red Sea to Iran.
However, the Houthis have previously surprised their adversaries by launching missiles at a Saudi oil depot in Jeddah in 2022, just prior to the Formula One Grand Prix.
Additionally, they have withstood intensive airstrikes led by a Saudi coalition for nearly eight years, maintaining their unlawful conquest.
Presently, notwithstanding the recurrent air attacks led by the United States against their missile and drone installations, they continue to exhibit unwavering resistance in their impasse with Western powers.
Many Yemenis in regions beyond their jurisdiction despise and fear the Houthis, an opposition group that has emerged as a formidable force.
