After Sunday’s election, the party of slain former Japanese prime leader Shinzo Abe is likely to increase its majority in the upper house.
Mr. Abe, Japan’s longest-serving modern leader, was assassinated at a speech in the western city of Nara in favor of a local candidate on Friday. The political establishment condemned the assassination as an attack on democracy itself.
The 67-year-old was taken to the hospital, but despite emergency care, including huge blood transfusions, he died of blood loss.
Compared to the previous election for the upper house in 2019, voter participation appeared to be greater.
The polls closed at 8 p.m. (11 a.m. BST) with exit polls predicting a strong showing for the incumbent party.
According to an exit poll conducted by public broadcaster NHK, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, of which Mr. Abe was a key member, and its junior partner Komeito were projected to win between 69 and 83 of the 125 seats fought in the upper chamber.
On Monday, official results are anticipated.
Typically, elections for seats in the less powerful upper house of parliament are viewed as a referendum on the current government. Before the assassination, opinion polls indicated a solid showing for the ruling bloc led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Mr. Abe’s protégé.
Political pundits projected before the election that the LDP and Komeito would likely benefit from a potential surge of sympathy votes as the nation mourned.
The government’s control, which is decided in the lower house, is not at stake in the election on Sunday.
Even a successful performance by the LDP would be overshadowed by the assassination of Mr. Abe, who as the leader of the party’s largest group exercised considerable influence over personnel and policy decisions.
A good showing at the polls might help Mr. Kishida consolidate his control, allowing the former Hiroshima banker to pursue his objective of increasing military spending. It may enable him to amend Japan’s pacifist constitution, a goal Mr. Abe has never realized.
“We just lost Mr. Abe. I want the LDP to win more votes so that they may govern the nation with stability “Sakae Fujishiro, a 67-year-old pensioner from Tokyo’s eastern Edogawa ward voted for the ruling party.
Katsunori Matsuzawa, 64, who voted at a polling station near where Mr. Abe was assassinated, stated that the killing may sway some undecided voters to choose the LDP. “This did not alter my vote, but I believe it will affect many others,” he added, declining to disclose how he voted.
In contrast, Yuko Takeuchi, a 52-year-old nurse in Tokyo who voted for the Japanese Communist Party, stated, “Of course, I am really saddened by his passing, but this election must be viewed separately.”
According to James Brady of the Teneo consulting firm, “in the next months, the government will endeavor to bolster domestic security.”
“By damaging the public’s overall feeling of safety and order, [Mr. Abe’s assassination] might also provide more impetus to important Abe issues such as defense buildup and constitutional change,” the author writes.
Polls indicate that the majority of voters favor a stronger military.
Mr. Abe remained immensely prominent in the LDP and led its largest section after leaving office, but his ultranationalist ideas made him a controversial figure for many.
According to observers, his passing creates the specter of a leadership vacuum and probable upheaval inside the party.
“Former prime minister Abe, who came to support me, was shot during our election campaign in an act of terrorism,” LDP candidate Kei Sato said after NHK predicted he would win his seat in Nara prefecture. Mr. Abe was shot while campaigning for Mr. Sato.
“However, we continued our battle on the premise that we must not submit to or fear terrorism; rather, we must defeat it,” he stated.
The small, populist Japan Innovation Party, which won seats in last year’s general election, could draw support away from the LDP. However, as the party also supports the constitutional amendment, any progress it makes will likely further the LDP’s objectives.
Following the shooting, the suspect, a former member of the Japanese navy, was apprehended at the spot on suspicion of murder.
According to police, the assailant, Tetsuya Yamagami, 41, told detectives he planned the shooting because he believed rumors that Mr. Abe was affiliated with an organization he detests.
According to Japanese media, the man had acquired animosity toward a religious sect to which his mother was loyal. The reports made no mention of the group.
Yamagami’s motorcycle and vehicle were seized, according to the Nara police.
From the truck, police retrieved trays wrapped in aluminum foil that the suspect said he used to dry gunpowder and wooden planks with holes that he said he used to test-fire his handmade weapon, according to police.
According to Japanese media, the unemployed 41-year-old claimed to police he spent months preparing the attack, accusing the former prime minister of ties to a religious cult he blames for his mother’s financial disaster.
On Saturday, a black hearse carrying Mr. Abe’s body and escorted by his wife, Akie, arrived at his home in the affluent Tokyo neighborhood of Shibuya, where many mourners waited and bowed their heads as the vehicle passed.
His murder raised doubts about whether the former prime minister had enough security.
Saturday, police announced that the bullet that penetrated Abe’s upper left arm ruptured arteries beneath both collar bones, causing significant bleeding.
Observers who viewed videos of the assassination on social media and television noted a lack of focus in the open area behind Mr. Abe as he talked.
Fumikazu Higuchi, a former Kyoto prefectural police investigator, stated that the tape revealed that security at the event was inadequate for a former prime minister.
“It is vital to investigate why security permitted Yamagami [the suspect who confessed to the murder] to move freely and approach Mr. Abe,” Higuchi stated on a Nippon television chat show.
Experts opined that Mr. Abe appeared more exposed standing on the ground as opposed to atop a campaign vehicle, which apparently could not be prepared because his visit to Nara was planned so quickly the day prior.
Yamagami can be seen in footage circulating on social media with a handmade gun slung over his shoulder, standing across a busy street from Mr. Abe and constantly peering about.
A few minutes after Mr. Abe took the platform and began his address, while a local party candidate and their supporters stood and waved to the crowd, Yamagami can be seen firing the first shot, which produced a cloud of smoke but missed Mr. Abe.
As Mr. Abe turned to determine the source of the commotion, a second shot was fired.
The gunshot appears to have struck Abe’s left arm but missed the bulletproof briefcase raised by the security man standing behind the former leader.
Mr. Abe dropped to the ground with his left arm covering his chest as he did so.
Campaign organizers yelled over loudspeakers for medical professionals to administer first aid to Mr. Abe, whose heart and breathing had ceased by the time he was evacuated to the hospital, where he was subsequently declared dead.
According to the Asahi newspaper, Yamagami was a contract worker at a warehouse in Kyoto where he operated a forklift and was known for being a reserved individual who did not socialize with his coworkers.
A neighbor of Yamagami’s flat told Asahi that he had never met Yamagami, but that he had heard sawing sounds late at night several times in the preceding month.
Even after leaving office, Mr. Abe remained immensely prominent within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and led its largest section, but his ultranationalist views made him a controversial figure among many.
As Mr. Kishida campaigned in the last hours preceding the election, he was surrounded by an increased police presence, and a metal detector was put at the location, a security step that is uncommon in Japan.
