Blunt attack

Despite firing their attack coach Brad Mooar, the All Blacks are unable to find a way to ignite their attacks, with embattled head coach Ian Foster taking on that role for the South African tour. The All Black’s first Test victory of the year against Ireland, in which they created space by utilizing wider forward runners and capitalized on Ireland’s errors to launch counterattacking strikes, seems like a lifetime ago.

In four Tests this season, three have resulted in defeat, making the opening victory at Eden Park the anomaly.

The All Blacks had few answers for the Springboks’ formidable rush defense last week in Mbombela. They failed to score until the 78th minute and spent the whole of the first half hemmed in their zone. Beauden Barrett initiated one counterattack; Will Jordan crossed the line in the second half with an assist from Ardie Savea, and Caleb Clarke’s spectacular burst set up Shannon Frizell’s late score after the Springboks were reduced to 14 men.

However, the All Blacks were otherwise easily contained. Even when they were able to create overlaps, their once-revered catch-and-pass talents were ineffective against the Springboks’ line-rushing defenders.

New Zealand has won two of their last three visits to Ellis Park, the site of Saturday’s Test, scoring 11 tries in those dramatic clashes. This weekend, to have any hope of producing a revival at the South African rugby mecca, they must regain their offensive mojo.

High-ball turnovers

South Africa’s aerial assault on the All Blacks is highlighted by Springboks winger Kurt-Lee Arendse’s four-week punishment for a brutal tackle on Barrett. Arendse tackled Barrett in midair as he attempted to catch one of his several soaring kicks. The All Blacks playmaker fell to the ground and landed on his neck during a terrifying challenge.

Barrett is relegated to the bench this week after scans revealed no damage to his neck, but he offered a glimpse into the terrifying nature of the occurrence, stating, “It was a significant impact, and I did fear the worst, especially when I was advised to remain motionless on the ground. Not until [the doctor] asked me, ‘Can you move your fingers?’ could I move them. Your feet? I felt relieved to have passed the examinations. I was eventually able to stand and continue with my day.”

The Springboks enjoyed consistent success with their aerial assault, with Barrett scoring their first try after losing the ball at the back. Sam Cane, captain of the All Blacks, stated that his team was successful on five of fifteen contestable kicks in Mbombela. Expect the Springboks to continue using this strategy. It will be difficult for the All Blacks to rectify this issue in one week, but they must offer their receivers much greater escort protection off the ball.

Forward structure

Every time the All Blacks face the Springboks, the respective front packs determine the victor. Under Rassie Erasmus and now Jacques Nienaber, the Springboks have resorted to their narrow plan of forwarding domination and kick-heavy strategies.

The All Blacks dramatically improved their maul defense and lineout after replacing their forward’s coach, John Plumtree, with Jason Ryan from the Crusaders in the aftermath of their series loss to Ireland. However, they lost the breakdown and scrum fights by significant margins. Last week, Springboks hooker Malcolm Marx celebrated his 50th Test by having a field day with the All Blacks’ ball in honor of his milestone match. Marx has returned to the bench, but the prospect of a South African meltdown persists.

The All Blacks have historically struggled with gaining quick, clean possession. Being constantly thwarted at the source is a significant reason why their attack has also failed. The All Blacks require their ball carriers to punch through the line and their cleaners to win the race to prevent South Africa from again bullying them at the breakdown.

It is not surprising that the All Blacks would promote props Ethan de Groot and Tyrel Lomax to the front row after committing four early scrum violations. These factors allowed the Springboks to immediately seize the initiative, apply persistent pressure, and initiate their grinding cycle. The All Blacks can defeat the Springboks without a superior platform. However, without parity, their capacity to utilize their offensive threats is quickly constrained.

Flaky starts

Four consecutive Tests, three against Ireland and last week in Mbombela, saw the All Blacks surrender the opening try. Even the initial appearance of the typically uplifting Kapa o Pango haka was unable to reverse this troubling trend.

At Ellis Park, where 62,000 furious South Africans will be baying for blood 1,700 meters above sea level, starting well assumes greater significance. Adding to such a nasty environment is not an option. Despite recognizing that they must improve their slow beginnings, the All Blacks have been unable to address the issue.

The embattled All Blacks coach Foster struggled to explain his team’s lackluster starts following the third Test loss to Ireland in Wellington. “Not really, because we’ve discussed it extensively. Foster stated, “For some reason, we’re not as composed, especially defensively.” “It’s the defense where we’re getting antsy early on, as we’re allowing a few holes to form.”

In all fairness, the All Blacks improved their defense last week. They did a respectable job of restraining South Africa’s explosive ball carriers, which frequently forced the Springboks to kick. Both South African tries were directly attributable to All Blacks errors, the first being from a high ball and the second from a fumbled pass as the All Blacks pursued an impossible comeback.

If the All Blacks can withstand South Africa’s anticipated early assault, they will not be obliged to chase the game with wild abandon.