Qatar descends fast into darkness. The night creeps in like a kidnapper, draping its cloak over the desert like a satchel on the head. Sunsets last barely long enough to select an Instagram filter.
On Saturday evening, either England or France will realize that in certain regions, forgetfulness descends with ruthless violence.
At 10 p.m. local time, the past will no longer be relevant. The loser will find no consolation in the brutal and often thrilling football that took them to this quarterfinal. One of Kylian Mbappé or Harry Kane is a fake. Didier Deschamps or Gareth Southgate are both idiots.
At this stage, one of Declan Rice or Aurélien Tchouaméni will be “painfully exposed.” Either the Football Association must examine its French counterpart closely, or vice versa. Two hours of football determines everything. Unfortunately, this is the way things work.
The fact that we all gladly accept this pseudo-fiction gives World Cup knockout football its manic strength. A microscopic VAR call; a feat of unparalleled brilliance; a fortunate deflection off Olivier Giroud’s backside; a penalty kick.
On these slick wheels, four years of labor have been destroyed. And despite the customary pre-match predictions and post-match analysis, England vs. France feels impossible to predict with certainty.
Tempo is a contributing factor. In contrast to Spain and Argentina, France and England lack a recognizable motif and a singular, continuous energy. This is both a boon and a bane. Few teams can match France’s ability to shift through the gears, transforming patience into impatience, ice into the fire, and verse into chorus.
They sit, settle, absorb, and become silent. Then they assault with sudden and concussive speed, a sensory overload that renders a defense ineffective in a matter of seconds. The majority of the time, however, they give you a chance.
Also, England has played this tournament at two different speeds. For thirty minutes against Wales and Senegal and ninety minutes against the United States, they were bereft and inept: a spoon squad in a world of pork chops.
Few teams, though, can survive their brilliance when the wingers dovetail and the midfielders assault the goal. Southgate’s substitutions have frequently been spectacularly successful.
Mbappé and Kane exemplify this contrast. Mbappé will deliberately conserve his energy during a game, reserving his legs for eight or nine all-out dashes that will define his night. He scarcely defends himself.
He will not return for set pieces. Unbelievably, he has never touched the ball in France’s defensive third during the whole tournament. However, he has had 42 touches within the opponent’s penalty area, which is more than Kane, Phil Foden, Jude Bellingham, and Bukayo Saka combined.
Kane’s extremes manifest in several ways. Few forwards are better at upsetting a defense’s equilibrium by keeping the ball, dropping deep, and passing diagonally to Saka and Foden. But when he settles down, England stumbles slightly.
England is compelled to punt up the flanks as a result of an opponent’s surge up the field, which constricts space. If the supervision of Mbappé by Kyle Walker is the most significant contest on the field, then Tchouaméni vs Kane is a close second.
Here, the responsibilities of Bellingham and Antoine Griezmann will be crucial: sniffing out space, establishing dominance on the flanks, making threatening runs beyond the backline, and thwarting counterattacks at their source.
With Giroud and Kane retreating and assuming England’s 4-3-3 formation remains constant, the midfield effectively consists of two diamonds. Kane and Bellingham will attempt to overload Tchouaméni, while Griezmann and Giroud will attempt to do the same against Rice. Jordan Henderson and Adrien Rabiot will playfully wrestle throughout the night.
If the game is loose and unstructured, France can typically be relied upon to score one more goal than England.
France has a definite advantage in terms of pedigree, pace, and knowing how to win these games. They have met teams as strong as England, whilst Southgate’s England have never faced a team as strong as France.
France can both defend a lead and chase after one. Their team, many of whom won in Russia in 2018, exudes flair for the big game. Ten Champions League medals compared to England’s three speaks volumes; when it comes to losing finals, England leads 10 to 6.
Have the English learned from their errors? All three of their tournament eliminations (Croatia 2018, Netherlands 2019, and Italy 2021) were the result of premature peaking, a miscalculation of aggression, and caution. Here, the exact reverse has been true: stay in the game, develop layers, and notice problems before attempting to solve them.
In essence, this has been the tale of Southgate’s England: a voyage of refining, machine learning, and erratic development. Talent has been added. Talent has been discarded. Systems have been trialed and junked. However, each error has toughened them slightly.
Moreover, it takes time to solve this puzzle. Before achieving perfection, Spain experienced cycles of underachievement. Before winning in 2014, Joachim Low’s Germany lost two semifinals and the championship match.
The side of Didier Deschamps matured over the course of three tournaments: a promising run thwarted by savvier opponents (Germany 2014), followed by an agonizing defeat at home (Portugal 2016), and eventually the success of 2018. Anyone who simplifies this complex procedure to “handbrake on, handbrake off” has probably never won anything in their lives.
Despite this, there is a sense of boss-level finality there. This game will likely define the Southgate era, win or lose. More so because it is a more straightforward football test, devoid of the emotional weight of a Wembley final, the naiveté of 2018, and the historical baggage of England versus Germany.
Mercifully, toxic nationalism is scarce in this matchup, even though the political rivalry extends back much further. Fans of England do not celebrate the Hundred Years’ War or sing “Ten French Archers.” Indeed, the crowd should have a minimum part. Whatever fate befalls England in this situation, it is on their terms.
For Deschamps, the stakes are comparable. Two consecutive early exits would undoubtedly mark the end of his decade in command and lead to Zinedine Zidane taking over. It would mark an end to the 2018 golden class, which included Giroud, Hugo Lloris, Paul Pogba, and possibly Griezmann and N’Golo Kanté.
Questions would be raised regarding the reliance on Mbappé, the responsibility of the national federation, and possibly even French football itself, which is battling multiple off-field controversies and a deteriorating connection with the general public.
All of this and more is at stake. This is the second-to-last weekend of the competition, but only now does the conclusion feel within reach. From Croydon to Créteil and Doha to Douala, the entire globe will stop to watch this genuine heavyweight bout. And as any seasoned heavyweight will tell you, the end usually arrives a bit sooner than expected.
