Now, the conclusion is approaching. Thus, we stand before the last curtain. A tad theatrical for the conclusion of the group stages of the Twenty20 World Cup, but soon eight out of twelve teams will be returning home or moving on to their next assignments, pondering what could have been and the disappointment of what wasn’t. And in Group 1 at least, the question of which two teams will advance will be determined by pure and elegant mathematics.
England and Australia would have been worldly enough to recognize that they could not expect to advance from this group before the event. They were diplomatic enough to describe every rival as a formidable opponent who could defeat them on any given day. They were knowledgeable enough to see this to be true. And they would have understood in their hearts that they should have been the two to advance. The two largest and best-resourced teams, one of which is the host and the other of which has been the short-form cricket pacesetter for the past seven years.
Australia did not anticipate a thrashing at the hands of a New Zealand team that often capitulates against them. England did not anticipate being surprised by Ireland and some Melbourne rain. With one game remaining, the big dogs are even with New Zealand in terms of wins, losses, and washes, and are only separated by net run rate: the ratio of how rapidly a team score runs to how quickly it concedes runs.
Before their last round, let’s address the restrictions. After the departure of the golden generation players that earned their country full ICC membership, Ireland has constructed a strong team. Irish teams have a history of defeating giants at World Cups, and they may defeat New Zealand on Friday.
Yes, Afghanistan will play on a used pitch at Adelaide Oval and will be able to employ quality spin against an Australian team that still has flaws against it. Yes, Sri Lanka is more than capable of defeating England in Sydney on Saturday on a good day, even though their poor days have been rampant in this tournament.
Moreover, none of these occurrences are expected to occur when these teams compete in Adelaide. If New Zealand, England, and Australia all secure projected victories, New Zealand will remain on top of the standings due to the two large opening margins that boosted their rate.
For England to close the gap, they would need to defeat Sri Lanka by approximately 140 runs or chase a score in five overs. Put this in the theoretically possible but practically impossible category, along with the small but real possibility that Sri Lanka or Ireland might yet qualify for the semifinals by a mix of numerous upset results and crazy run-rate adjustments.
Australia’s potential supplanting of England is conceivable and hence a lot of fun. To catch England’s rate, Australia would need to defeat Afghanistan by approximately 62 runs in a usual range of scores with a fluctuation of one or two runs. Therefore, if England wins, Australia must be 62 runs ahead of their margin.
If bowling first, it is not only important to limit the opponent’s score, but also to pursue them quickly. If Afghanistan scores between 100 and 160, Australia has between 12.2 and 13.1 overs to match England’s score, plus any cushion England may attain.
It is a difficult undertaking, and the repercussions of Australia allowing Ireland to come back into the game from a 25-5 deficit on Monday night become even more glaring. However, it’s conceivable. In addition, Australia will play on Friday, while England will play on Saturday. Therefore, the Australians will have to go all out, having to surpass England’s milestone by an unknown margin.
And if they do, England will need to decimate a talented squad to catch up. It will alter batting orders, strategies, and the entire dynamic in ways that will also benefit underdog clubs. It keeps the team alive till the last game. As long as New Zealand does well against the Irish, this planet will finally have something for the mathematicians. Divide, subtract, and conquer.
