What if the Queen had survived her death? If she hadn’t, Arsenal would have faced PSV Eindhoven in the Europa League in September, and that match wouldn’t have had to be played on a midweek when they were scheduled to visit Manchester City.
Arsenal would have entered what could have been the season-defining encounter in October on a seven-game winning streak, having defeated Tottenham and Liverpool in their previous two home league meetings, while City would have been coming off a 1-0 loss at Liverpool.
Arsenal was currently experiencing their worst stretch of the season, whereas City was just beginning to recover from a post-World Cup slump. But they will continue to blame the officials.
Arsenal is tied for first place with a game in hand, but their momentum has waned. They’ll indeed win the league if they draw away at City in April and win their other 15 games, but nobody at the club can look past Saturday’s match against Aston Villa and ending their current winless streak of four matches.
They have lost eight points in the first three games of the second half of the season, having lost seven points in the first half. Once eight-point leads have been lost, they are rarely restored.
Arsenal appear exhausted
The decline began in the FA Cup for City. At the moment, a 1-0 loss felt almost ideal for Arsenal: even with a weaker squad, there was no indication that they couldn’t compete with the champs, and the schedule was now free to focus on the more vital tournament. But this loss ended the streak.
Nobody could realistically criticize Mikel Arteta for resting players, given the small size of his squad, but it was as if that was the moment when, having gone chasing off the cliff, they looked down and realized that this progress wasn’t sustainable, and that gravity would eventually catch up with them.
How much longer could they have continued to violate the natural financial laws of football? There is always bad luck to blame. Perhaps Arsenal was unlucky to face Everton in the first (or only) game of Sean Dyche’s resurgence. But regardless of how tenacious Goodison’s new war dogs were in midfield, there was also a sense that Arsenal was listless. The zipper broke.
In football, fatigue is nearly impossible to prove and is frequently little more than a convenient post-hoc justification. Only those with access to detailed medical data can definitively determine if a player is physically or mentally fatigued, and even these statistics cannot account for mental fatigue. But Arsenal’s greatest concern has always been that they will run out of steam, and recently, their steam has appeared to be in extremely limited supply.
The VAR official
Against Brentford, the VAR official, Lee Mason, was criticized for becoming so preoccupied with a probable blocking run by Ethan Pinnock that he neglected to examine if Christian Nrgaard was offside when he crossed for Ivan Toney to equalize, but there is rarely only one issue in play.
In the first half, Brentford had by far the most opportunities. They could have easily led by two or three goals. Focusing on that one refereeing blunder and attributing Arsenal’s struggles to it is to miss the wider picture.
Arsenal had an opportunity against City. Pep Guardiola admitted to a tactical mistake in the first half when Bukayo Saka tore apart left-back Bernardo Silva. Arsenal had held 59.5% of the ball at the half.
They had possessed options. Eddie Nketiah missed the target with a free header. Saka had vacillated in a favorable situation. The city had difficulty creating opportunities before to Takehiro Tomiyasu’s poor backpass.
What if Arteta had continued to play right-back with Ben White? Even at that time, anybody who desired to could observe the refereeing. What if Silva had been cautioned for his second or third foul on Saka instead of his fourth? Then, might he have been dismissed before Guardiola could reorganize? What could Arsenal have accomplished against 10?
But Guardiola was able to restructure, and City was by much the superior team in the second half. They scored twice, had an attempt blocked off the line, and were only denied a penalty due to a narrow offside.
Arsenal had signed Moisés Caicedo
What if Thomas Partey had been healthy or Arsenal had acquired Moisés Caicedo instead of Jorginho as a backup? Had they signed Myhailo Mudryk rather than Leandro Trossard, would they have had a better chance of reclaiming the initiative?
Perhaps, and this leads to a sort of economic determinism that provides the greatest explanation for who wins championships: City has the most resources, allowing them to afford the best manager and the finest players, as well as supply them with the best facilities.
Perhaps Arsenal’s financial situation was always destined to catch up with them. However, such things are rarely singular or straightforward, and there may be twists in the title race for this season. Arsenal may return, but it does not appear likely.
What if the Queen had survived her death? What if the match had occurred in October? Without a single nail, the kingdom was lost.
