- Poll predicts Labour landslide victory with 468-seat majority
- Conservatives face historic defeat, projected to win fewer than 100 seats
- Key Tory figures risk losing seats, Labour surges in polls
The study predicts Labour would storm to power with a 468-seat majority, while the prime minister and several cabinet colleagues could be voted out.
A significant poll indicates that Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are on track to win fewer than one hundred seats in the general election, which is the worst performance in the party’s history.
Utilising a seat-by-seat breakdown, a survey of 15,000 individuals predicted that the Conservatives would prevail in a meagre 98 constituencies in England while being annihilated in Scotland and Wales.
The Survation study predicts that Sir Keir Starmer of the Labour Party could be propelled into power with a landslide victory of 468 seats.
The survey placed Labour at 45%, sixteen points behind the Tories at 26%.
It allocated 41 seats to the Scottish National Party, 22 to the Liberal Democrats, and 2 to Plaid Cymru.
The Conservatives held 365 seats in 2019, while Labour secured 203, the SNP 48, the Liberal Democrats 11, and Plaid 4.
With a mere 2.4% margin over Labour, the prime minister risks losing his constituency, the new Richmond and Northallerton seat in North Yorkshire.
Further removal of several cabinet ministers, including potential leadership candidates, is also possible.
The study for the internationalist campaign group Best for Britain predicts that House of Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, and Home Secretary James Cleverly would all lose their seats.
It appears probable that Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch, former Home Secretary Suella Braverman, and former Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick will all retain their seats.
However, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is also susceptible to defeat, as his lead over the Liberal Democrats in his new Godalming and Ash seat is only 1%.
The survey underscores the peril that Reform UK, projected to secure the second position in seven seats with 8.5% of the total vote, poses to the Conservatives.
The Tories would win 150 seats, according to a model of the probable outcome if Richard Tice’s party withdrew; this would still be an overwhelming loss, but it would give Mr Sunak, or more likely his replacement, a more significant opportunity to reconstitute.
Best for Britain’s chief executive Naomi Smith stated, “It is evident that this will be a change election, as polling indicates that large numbers of voters are abandoning the Conservatives.
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Survation surveyed 15,029 adults between March 8 and 22 using a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) procedure to model constituency-level results.
A government source stated, “Many polls and forecasts have been published.
During the forthcoming months, thoughts will be preoccupied with deciding between our strategy to expand the economy, generate employment opportunities, and establish a more promising future and Labour’s absence of a plan to return us to our initial position.
Labour Party (Labour) MP Bob Seely disclosed he had been pressured to defect to the party affiliated with Nigel Farage, which indicated Reform UK’s aspirations.
On Sunday, he stated in the Sun, “I declined Reform because I value loyalty. We should not cut and flee, just as I do not do so.”
A Reform spokesman told the publication, “It is entirely his prerogative to decline the one and only opportunity he has to save his skin.”
